Welcome Enthusiasts to another UFC card. We would be remiss if we did not wish all Fight Enthusiasts a happy Holiday. Whether one celebrates Easter, Passover or no holiday at all we want to express our best wishes to all this special weekend. For Uncle Louie it’s all about Faith, Famiglia, Friends and ….Fights! UFC 2015: 23-20 + 1,112.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We utilize $100 to easily disclose bottom line results as every GambLou.com suggestion is accounted for publicly each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display our gaming capability while providing our readers with 100% transparency). -Let’s Fight- Poirier -185 vs. Ferreira +165 Poirier is returning to the 155 weight limit after testing the 145’s. This return to us signifies a fighter struggling with fight identity after a decimating loss to the galling Gaelic Conor McGregor. In his return to 155 Poirier is facing a capable Brazilian off of two serious fights in which he lost to a top contender in Dariush and defeated a chap in Nijem that previously defeated Dariush! This capable Brazilian Black belt in Jiu-Jitsu is one dynamic fighter and we feel this is a tough spot for Poirier to say it simply. Ferreira opened +110 and now we can grab and extra half dollar! Ferreira +165 (We’ll be monitoring this line for if the parlay playing public does the usual, this line may grow and we’re about value so be patient and try to squeeze another dime of gaming value out of this line if possible) Chiesa -420 vs Clarke +340 If value is our goal let’s look no further than this fight. While Chiesa is the taller, longer man here we feel...
EPL Round 31
posted by Todd
After a week off for an international break the EPL gets back into full swing. James Kempton is here with his thoughts on each of the weekend’s fixtures. Game capsules not enough? Listen to Jimmy’s comprehensive podcast with Pete Nordsted Arsenal v Liverpool Arsenal -0.5 Goals 2.75 The last ten total meetings of the sides have seen at least two goals so this game should be exciting for the viewer. Interestingly the home side has won just three of the last fifteen EPL meetings. I lean to the away team on this line but with the goal line set at 2.75, I have no real feeling in the totals market. Everton v Southampton Pk Goals 2.25 Southampton have conceded just six goals in fifteen games against sides in the bottom of the table. Everton are yet to win this season against teams placed in the top third of the table so even on the Pk I can’t back them here. I prefer the goal markets for value so give me some of the under 2.25 goals here as the Saints will be hard to break down. Leicester v West Ham Leicester -0.25 Goals 2.50 I can’t see how this line has Leicester as favourites given West Ham’s win last time out at home to Sunderland. Leicester are desperate but it doesn’t mean they’ll perform in this game. Give me the away team and unders as West Ham have lost just once this season in eleven meetings to bottom third of the table teams. Manchester United v Aston Villa United -1.5 Goals 2.75 United have found some form and they’ve covered this line in the last four meetings of the sides at Old Trafford. Villa have managed just seven goals in fifteen games against top...
Pitching Value
posted by Todd
Special thanks again to Gil Alexander for allowing us here to share his trio of MLB podcasts to get readers ready for the season. Today’s final installment breaks down pitching value, something near and dear to any fantasy owner or sports bettor’s heart during April bases....
Win Totals
posted by Todd
Another great podcast installment from Gil Alexander (follow him on twitter @beatingthebook) to get you ready for the major league baseball season. His guest? Joe Peta of Trading Bases fame provides the cluster luck-based reasoning behind his favorite MLB season win totals picks for 2015. Listen in, there are few better tandems breaking down value in the win totals market than these guys. Win Totals not your thing? Here’s an extensive list of player props from...
MLB Preview (1)
posted by Todd
Special thanks to Gil Alexander of Beating the Book fame who has allowed us to circulate his MLB podcasts on these pages in anticipation of Opening Day. Stay tuned over the next few days as we’ll redistribute some of his great content. This episode includes Jonah Keri, Grantland.com, on 2015 MLB Season Win Totals & Paul Sporer, FanGraphs, on Fantasy Baseball Overvalued/Undervalued Position Players Covering all things baseball for Grantland.com, Jonah Keri drops in on Host Gill Alexander for his annual March podcast appearance and offers up his thinking on his top four MLB season win total plays for 2015. Then, Paul Sporer of FanGraphs and PaintTheBlack.com highlights the most overvalued and undervalued position players you should be aware of in your upcoming baseball fantasy draft Check out all these props for the regular...
Player Propalooza
posted by Todd
The start of baseball is just a few short days away and Bovada wants to make sure you have an appropriate action fix. Listed below are more than 500 player props (broken down by player and team) to whet the wagering whistle. All of the bets have low counter limits but for the recreational bettor in all of us there’s no reason to scoff at the opportunity to grind out a few points on the batting average in late September to cash a ticket. Keep in mind the stipulations on all of these state the player just needs to make the parent club out of camp meaning there’s a ton of value on unders, especially with injury prone talents. Mike Trout – Total HR’s in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 32½ Mike Trout – Total Hits in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 180½ Mike Trout – Total Stolen Bases in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 25½ Mike Trout – Total RBI’s in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 101½ Mike Trout – Total Runs in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 115½ Mike Trout – BA in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under .309 Miguel Cabrera – BA in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under .315 Miguel Cabrera – Total HR’s in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 30½ Miguel Cabrera – Total RBI’s in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 110½ Miguel Cabrera – Total Runs in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 100½ Giancarlo Stanton – Total BA in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under .285 Giancarlo Stanton – Total HR’s in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 37½ Giancarlo Stanton – Total Runs in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under 95½ Giancarlo Stanton –...
Cosart Games
posted by Todd
Current Miami Marlins Jarred Cosart probably bet on sports. I mean I’m pretty confident he definitely did but until that information is made public I’ll error on the side of caution. Anyone with a pulse who spent time on social media yesterday saw the same details reported in different ways from highly reputable media outlets. I’m here to say that unless Cosart bet on baseball, we actually don’t have a story at all. It is not against MLB rules for players to legally bet on other sports. — David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) March 25, 2015 During my time behind the counter at Caesars Palace I saw plenty of high profile faces, specifically athletes, walk to the counter to place bets. Athletes from all different sports came to our book during busy events betting everything from the ponies to the Superbowl to major prize fights. Let me be clear in heading off the rumors before they start; not a single time did an active athlete bet a sport with which he or she had an intimate connection under my watch. Had this taken place, myself along with my colleagues, would have had the responsibility to report said incident to the gambling control board. Why is this relevant you ask? Young males, when given wealth (and not much direction in how to spend it) combined with a competitive drive to test themselves will always gravitate towards games of chance. Funny how that works when athletes play cards, roll dice, or sit at BJ tables that we somehow become surprised when they elect to put a little skin in the game during March Madness or the football season. Last I checked backdoor poker games aren’t exactly the most legal of recreational pursuits either. Before we get into...
3HL – Nashville...
posted by Todd
http://www.toddstake.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/03-25-15.mp3 Just another Wednesday on 3HL talking all things Sweet 16 along with a variety of other sports gambling oddities. It wouldn’t be our weekly installment if Blaine didn’t try to catch me off guard with his famous “prop” bet...
Tourney Props
posted by Todd
…and then there were 16 teams left dancing into the 2nd weekend of the big dance. Already we’re seeing some interesting betting trends beginning to emerge for the Sweet 16 highlighted by 2 huge public favorites both going in the late time slot Friday Night (Michigan St & Duke). Don’t believe me? Here’s early thoughts from Kevin Bradley of Bovada on the Duke game “Not much has changed after the first weekend of the Madness with Kentucky leading the way at even money to win it all and haveingtaken four times more money than the next team. Duke seems to be the trendy pick right now behind the play of Jahlil Okafor who we have dropped from 14/1 to 10/1 to win tournament MOP. Looking at the Sweet 16 games there is that common trend with Duke taking over 90% of the action right now -5 over Utah and I expect that to be our biggest decision of the round.” -Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager, bovada.lv Bradley highlights what most of us in the industry have always known to be true come March; it’s not what you’ve done all season but rather what you’ve done lately that steer public betting trends. Along with the customary betting markets Bovada has a handful of other props available to the casual bettor looking to get a quick fix. Odds to win Tournament MOP Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky) 4/1 Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky) 7/1 Trey Lyles (Kentucky) 15/2 Aaron Harrison (Kentucky) 10/1 Jahlil Okafor (Duke) 10/1 Andrew Harrison (Kentucky) 12/1 Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin) 12/1 Brandon Ashley (Arizona) 16/1 Stanley Johnson (Arizona) 16/1 T.J. McConnell (Arizona) 16/1 Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga) 16/1 Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) 20/1 Justise...
UFC FN 62
posted by Todd
UFC FN62 Maia vs. LaFlare: Begging for Beagles in Brazil Welcome fight Enthusiasts to FN 62 from Rio. Contrary to UFC 185 where we worked diligently to whittle numerous live Labradors to a select few, today we struggle to diagnose even a couple of dogs worthy of our dollars. The main event for today’s foray of fighters would be placed in the 5th position of last week’s card by way of compelling combatants. That said our goal is to pull profit from these pugilist so with today’s theme being ‘SELECTIVITY’ let’s begin. UFC 2015: 21-19 + $1,047.00 (All GambLou.com suggested wagers are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. Public accounting allows us to display our gaming capability while providing our readers with 100% transparency). -Let’s Fight- Note: The last fight card in Brazil realized rabid runts running rampant in the streets of Porto Alegre, Brazil but more importantly we witnessed the usual dominance of the home County Brazilians stymied as most of the home town hombre’s got handled. Was this a rare occurrence or is the new testing program in the UFC exposing something many have speculated for some time? Rhetorical question certainly but one we must address. We believe that the Brazilian home Countrymen on the slate today are well aware of what happened the last time the UFC visited Brazil and that local pride will be even more enhanced and the fans even more enthusiastic than usual…..which should be something to witness! Martin -140 vs. Santos +120 Interesting to observe that there has been a reversal of the Favorite in this fight. Santos opened -180 and now we see that he is an underdog in this matchup. Martin takes this fight on relative short notice...
EPL Weekend Round-Up
posted by Todd
It may be March Madness and hoops paranoia here in the States but the EPL season stops for no one. James Kempton is back with his weekly look around the EPL providing gambling angles on every fixture the card has to offer. Manchester City v West Bromwich Albion City -1.5 and 3 goals City can’t afford any more slip ups in the title race but they welcome a rejuvenated Albion under Tony Pulis. I wouldn’t want to lay more than a goal on the home team so the value on this line is with the away team and the unders. Aston Villa v Swansea City Villa -0.25 and 2.25 goals Another rejuvenated team takes to the pitch here as Villa host a Swansea side coming off of a 1-0 defeat at home to Liverpool. Tim Sherwood has breathed life into this Villa side but they have won just one of seven EPL meetings with the Swans. Value is with Swansea and the over 2.25 goal line. Newcastle United v Arsenal Arsenal -0.75 and 2.5 goals Arsenal have kept three consecutive clean sheets away at St James’ Park with two 1-0 wins and a goalless draw. Arsenal should be able to control this game throughout by dominating possession against a home attack appearing toothless. Away win for me and I lean to under on the goal line as well as I expect them to win the game to nil. Southampton v Burnley Soton -1 and 2.5 goals Southampton have conceded just one goal in seven home games against bottom half opposition whilst scoring twenty at the other end. Burnley have shown this season they can score away in such spots so although I like the home win, my favoured bet is the over on the...
Cutting Down the Nets...
posted by Todd
Here’s the full and complete updated list of college basketball futures prices from the Westgate Superbook and William Hill. Throughout the week we’ll have odds to win the regionals, props, and any other relevant numbers from around Vegas pertaining to the big dance. ***Note the Westgate Superbook offers a field bet for team’s not listed, William Hill has odds on each individual school if you’re looking for a longshot not included on the comparison chart. Westgate Will Hill Kentucky 11-10 11-10 Wisconsin 7 8 Duke 7 10 Villanova 8 10 Arizona 8 8 Virginia 10 10 Gonzaga 18 20 North Carolina 25 40 Kansas 40 25 Baylor 60 40 Iowa St 40 40 Notre Dame 50 25 Oklahoma 75 40 Michigan St 75 100 Utah 75 60 SMU 75 100 Maryland 60 50 Wichita St 75 100 Louisville 60 60 WVU 100 100 Texas 100 500 N. Iowa 100 75 Butler 200 100 Arkansas 200 100 Xavier 200 150 VCU 200 150 LSU 300 300 Georgetown 200 60 UCLA 300 500 Cincinnati 300 300 Indiana 300 500 Oregon 300 250 Oklahoma St 300 300 Ole Miss 300 500 NC State 300 250 Providence 300 150 Georgia 300 500 San Diego St 300 250 St John’s 300 300 Iowa 300 200 Purdue 300 300 BYU 300 500 Boise St 500 500 Dayton 500 500 SF Austin 1000 500 Davidson 1000 250 Valpo 2000 1000 EWU 2000 1000 Field 200...