UFC FN 71 Mir vs. Duffee: D’Arce chokes from Del Mar Welcome Enthusiasts to UFC 71. Tonight’s card is well positioned in that there is absolutely nothing going on in the sports world. The slate tonight in our opinion is high in viewing value but slight in underdog opportunity. We’ll tread lightly and try to pick up some profit. UFC 2015 50-59 + $1,199.00 (includes Sunday’s fights which were not posted at this site) -Let’s Fight- Good -265 vs. Craig +245 Ex-Bellator Champ Good is a good striker with dubious skills on the mat. This is his UFC debut and he goes against a canine in Craig that is desperate for if he drops this fight he may end up flipping burgers somewhere. Craig is the younger much larger man and has a 2” reach edge over Good. Craig opened a reasonable dog +135 and now is inflated over a one dimensional fighter who may have some UFC debut jitters. Craig +245 (half) Alcantara -105 vs. Casey -105 Casey is a wrestler with decent submission skills and overall is improving as a fighter despite his 34 years of age. Our questions with Casey revolve around his cardio but he must know he has to improve there. Alcantara will be the larger man with height and reach advantage so to keep this fight standing is certainly his plan as Casey will have an edge on the floor especially early. We’ve been going back and forth on this one…. Alcantara -105 (half) Yahya -105 vs. Kanehara -105 ‘Styles make fights’, Rani wants this fight on the floor and Kanehara has a substantial striking edge. We’ll go with the striker. Kanehara -105 (half) Lee -255 vs. Moontasri +235 Kevin Lee seems destined for a Championship run in...

UFC 189 Mendes vs. McGregor: Viva Las Vegas! Welcome Enthusiasts to the much anticipated UFC 189. We attended weigh-ins yesterday and in my life I have seen or experience nothing like the mass hysteria and Irish invasion witnessed yesterday at the MGM Grand. There are several great matchups on these cards so as usual we’ll focus exclusively on bouts that give us the greatest advantage for profit and gaming value. One thing to note, the magnitude of the UFC 189 card does not entice us to make monetary wagers other than we execute for any other fight card. We choose to play half or full unit positions on 99% of the fights we release. On the occasion that we uncover obtuse value from the marketplace or may obtain advantage by adding investment to an original position we will do so….but we do so based on gaming value not on the magnitude or scope of any particular fight(s). UFC 2015: 47-53 + $1,545.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Smolka -125 vs. Seery +115 Neil Seery is an Irish boxing based MMA artist that offers deep experience, fine striking and is tough as a three dollar steak. He faces a complete fighter in Louis Smolka however that will enter the Octagon with Fightmetric advantage. Smolka is better than a decade younger; he’s the taller man by 5” as well he will hold a 5” reach advantage over Seery. Smolka opened a fair -170 and the money has seeped in on...

It’s getting closer; day by day, hour by hour…the college football season will be upon us before we know it.  In the meantime there are still plenty of betting options to discuss before teams take to the field the opening weekend of September.  Bovada unveiled their odds to make the college football playoff earlier this week offering prices on a handful of high power programs with YES/NO propositions.  Unfortunately for fans of the college football upstarts (you know who you are Vols and Razorbacks fans), the investment opportunities aren’t there yet for your programs however there’s always a chance other teams get added to the mix once the season gets rolling. The biggest takeaway for me from this short list is that there’s only one team in the entire land EXPECTED to make the college football playoff…and it should be no surprise that honor is bestowed on the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes given they’ll be double digit favorites every time they take to the field in 2015.  As always the NO prices offer considerably more value with so many of these teams needing to avoid the injury bug, scheduling landmines, and of course the committee to get into the college football postseason. You’ll also notice 2 special bets included on the menu at Bovada regarding a potential 2 loss team’s inclusion in the playoff and the prospects of one conference sending 2 representatives.  College football games might still be a few months away but that doesn’t mean you can’t start betting on (or against) your favorite teams wherever you find that edge. COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SPECIALS 2015 Regular Season – Will a 2 Loss team make the 4 Team Playoff?        Yes                   +250     (5/2) No                    -400     (1/4)   2015 Regular Season – Will 2...

Football season in Las Vegas has become synonymous with “contest season.”  The most coveted football crown for handicappers still remains the Westgate Supercontest,  the gold standard for pigskin prognosticators but the contest landscape offers more options now than ever before.  Added to that mix in recent years (and growing in reputation) is the Golden Nugget’s contest derivation that takes on a different format, still testing the mettle of the best handicappers but utilizing a head to head component while also incorporating college football in the mix.  However those aren’t the only 2 contests that will be offered around town this football season. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE SUPERCONTEST The 2015 SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook expects to exceed last year’s record 1,403 entries that made the total prize pool worth more than $2 million to those finishing among the Top 30 places. At $1,500 per entry, the SuperContest has been known since its inception as the foremost NFL handicapping contest in the world, with last year’s winner taking home a record $740,000 for picking winners at an insane 76 percent clip. Contestants in 2015 shouldn’t be intimidated by the winner’s ridiculous performance, instead focusing on the more attainable 62% it took to place in the money last year (I say more attainable with a grain of salt, still a very difficult level to reach). There is talk of an expanded prize pool for 2015 depending on the final number of entrants but those details won’t be disclosed until much later this summer. Fast forward to 2015, and the SuperBook is hoping to hit at least 1,900 entries thanks to increased marketing efforts and social media buzz which would award more than $1 million to the winner for the first time...

The dog days of summer can lead bettors to do some interesting things.  With NBA & NHL playoffs in the rearview and football seemingly years away so how is the betting community supposed to whittle away the time? Surely it’s not getting caught up in the baseball grind or the 2nd tier domestic soccer leagues that add as much intrigue to a July day as a grape Otter pop. For those that are a bit more adventurous there’s always tennis and the opportunity that comes with maximizing investments during the grass season.  Pinnacle Sports has offered a very extensive series of articles and previews that can help inexperienced bettors learn a thing or two before the fortnight comes to an end.  As Wimbledon closes the 2nd round and heads into the 3rd there’s no reason you can’t be reading and observing this year’s tournament attempting to identify patterns in live trading, line movement, or player tendencies that might benefit you in the future. If you’re looking for 3 accomplished sources of tennis betting information this trio of gambling follows gets my stamp of approval: @So_Money_Sports @Stuckey2 @Winafy Here’s a list of some greats reads courtesy of Pinnacle… Men’s Wimbledon Betting Preview – Expert Dan Weston looks at the tournament and gives bettors a look at the edges they can find Women’s Wimbledon Betting Preview – Another Weston look, this time at the WTA field: Live betting opportunities at Wimbledon – A series of live tennis trading points that should help any bettor: How do the Top 10 perform in Grand Slams? – A look at the top ATP stars and how much of a sure thing each offers. Best betting tips for grass season – A look at the characteristics of grass play and...

If you clicked on this blog post expecting something baseball related…I hate to disappoint you but that ain’t happening. However no matter what sport you bet, from baseball to football to soccer, this piece has relevance. When looking to achieve long term success in this business, either as a professional or a casual bettor, getting the best of the number is essential. With football right around the corner meaning high season for most American bettors, identifying new “outs” should become a major priority. “Outs” is industry jargon for having a place to bet. The best bettors in the world do everything in their power to make sure betting limits don’t stand in the way of their ability to get down enough money on a game. Casual bettors don’t have the need to spread 100k on a game and subsequently aren’t stressing about having 50 active books during high season but relying on just one book even for a $20 bettor becomes a recipe for failure. We all go about different means of getting down our action; Vegas, local bookies, PPH shops, offshore etc; having the ability to bet into the best numbers is directly correlated to long term success. There’s simply no reason for a bettor expecting results not to have access to a variety of different numbers on every single game. While I know regularly betting in Vegas isn’t an option for 99% of people reading this there’s no reason keeping money in 3 to 5 trustworthy offshore books during football season can’t become a possibility. The idea is simple; identify a handful of books that you know cater to bettors of different abilities offering you a variety of prices. Recreational sportsbooks shade their numbers towards favorites, giving you the ability to grab...

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the dog days of summer. Just a mere 6-7 years ago we could be found banging our heads against a brick wall of regular season hardball.  We choose to utilize the regular season of hardball as data for our Playoff Profits and survive these 114 degree days by bringing our own heat…..in the UFC. Fight analysis provided by @Gamblou UFC 2015: 46-49 + $1,745.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). Just a note on this UFC fight card as it’s undergone numerous changes. UFC visa issues, late replacements, and debuting fighters have had a major effect on this card, an effect we believe may well lead to profitability. When we use the term, ‘Swing it Easy’ this is the situation we point to. It’s our opinion that neither Abbott, Costello, the ‘Makers nor the public playing parlay pundits have any idea how these fights are going to play out. To be honest we’re not so certain we have an empirical idea of how these fights will transpire but the one thing we have come to trust over almost 4 decades in this business is our ‘Gut feel’. Today our ‘Gut’ says, hold the club loose, ‘Swing it Easy’ and ‘fade’. -Let’s Fight- Montgomery -110 vs. Sims +100 The southpaw Montgomery is some guitar player from a rock n roll band. He’s 5” taller, 5 years younger and sports a dynamic reach advantage over his opponent. Numbers all check out. It’s our business to notice that Montgomery who...

There are fans and there are sports bettors…of course there are also those that consider themselves both.  Rob Perez would fall into that class with his loyalty and allegiance to the Knicks well documented through social media.  I don’t do a NBA mock draft, hell I’m nowhere close to a NBA expert with an opinion worth a damn but when Rob invited me on his podcast the night before the draft to talk him off the Porzingis ledge, I reluctantly...

Betting baseball totals is about lineups.  Betting baseball totals is about identifying favorable weather.  Betting baseball totals is about getting the best of the number and understanding why 7’s and 9’s are such key numbers.  Betting baseball totals is also about knowing who will be behind the dish calling balls and strikes.  Apparently the importance of umpires isn’t lost on major league baseball these days given a disturbing trend a few of my closest industry colleagues and I have noticed.  MLB.com is supposed to be a trusted source of information (theoretically), a website baseball fans can rely on for up to date ACCURATE information about all things major league baseball.  That hasn’t been the case lately given a slew of incorrect umpire listings on the site. Just yesterday there were 3 wrong initial listings.  One game was so egregious that an umpire known to be on an active crew in Game 2 of a series was somehow listed as the home plate umpire in the Giants/Padres series opener 3000 miles away.  Don’t get me wrong; mistakes happen but when you have one job to do this kind of crap would get an intern fired at any normal company unless it’s intentional. Whether these constant mistakes are the byproduct of lazy data clerks doing manual data entry or a bigger push from MLB, I find it hard to believe that it’s mere coincidence the problem persista.  As handicappers we all have routines and tools we come to rely on before making our investments; thankfully trusted sports information sources like Don Best and Sports Options are in the business of being accurate with this kind of information knowing what’s at stake for bettors. A picture is worth a thousands words so behold just one example of...

UFC FN 69: Bodylocks and Bockwurst from Berlin All Fight analysis provided by @GambLou Good day Enthusiasts. Tomorrow’s UFC card tips off at 9AM PST so we’ll be enjoying brunch with our brawls come Saturday morning. This card features fighters from every corner of the world and has a very international flair. Many of these fights are miss matches where we can derive little value from the dog or they feature fighters we have insufficient data by which to handicap the fight. With fight cards like this our choice is to study, enjoy, take ample notes and utilize the card for fight data moving forward.   Remember that Selectivity contributes as much to Profitable Sports Gaming as does Due Diligence and Money Management. So we’ll take a measured approach to UFC FN 69 while enjoying the international flavor of the fighters. UFC 2015: 46-47 + $1,845.00 Taisumov -165 vs. Patrick +145 Patrick is the taller, longer man, he trains in Brazil with the likes of Jacare so this kid can make it a maul on the mat if this fights goes to the floor which is what we feel Taisumov may have planned. Taisumov has three UFC wins all over debuting fighters. Suffice it to say that Patrick is much more skilled and experienced than any first time UFC fighter. Patrick a southpaw will display his cardio and capability in the later rounds of this fight where he will begin to wear the Chechen fighter down. We believe Patrick’s activity and pace will earn him a victory in this fight. Patrick +145( half) Hein -165 vs. Sajewski +145 There is plenty to like about the lefty Nick Hein. He’s looked solid in his first few UFC fights. He earned a decision over Drew Dober about...

The 115th US Open starts tomorrow from Chambers Bay out in the Pacific Northwest.  Golf will have a new broadcast partner for this event as Fox and Fox Sports 1 (along with Fox Sports Go) will carry around the clock coverage of our golf national championship.  Naturally if an event is going to be on TV you’re going to look for a little action to keep things interesting.  By all accounts the course will provide some different challenges from previous US Open’s.  It won’t be narrow tree lined fairways or insanely thick rough that players need to avoid but rather navigate a course that will be burned up playing hard and fast.  I won’t claim to be a golf expert, shit I can’t break 100 even with mulligans, however it doesn’t stop me from listening to trusted voices that believe mental toughness will play as big a role this weekend as just the physical game.  Pin placement on the large undulating greens will mean every precision tee shot and approach landed incorrectly can sink a contender’s chances playing more like a British Open course than we’ve seen in the past. For a more technical breakdown read this preview from friend of the program and golf channel writer Will Gray A quick glance at the oddsmakers leader board reveals a tandem of familiar names listed in single digits; Rory McIlroy (7-1) and Jordan Spieth (8-1).  One household name accustomed to that distinction years ago, Tiger Woods, checks in much further down the big board at 50-1 headed into the tournament…a far cry from where he opened at 15.  Below you’ll find the current prices compared to openers courtesy of the Westgate Superbook. ***For those new to golf wagering don’t think the only way to turn...

There’s a good chance we’ll crown the 2015 NBA champion tonight…or later this week but either way we’re splitting hairs here.  For most fans and teams their focus is already on the 2015-16 season.  Look what we have here; odds on who will hold the Larry OBrien trophy at this time next year.  Courtesy of the Westgate Superbook here’s your complete list of odds to win next year’s title.  Notice that Cleveland is an overwhelming favorite to come out of the East at 5-9 while the Oklahoma City Thunder, even with a first time head coach Billy Donovan, are listed as 2nd favorites tied with the Warriors behind only the Cavaliers in the eyes of oddsmakers. 2015-2016 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP CAVALIERS 9-4WARRIORS 5THUNDER 5CLIPPERS 10SPURS 12BULLS 12HAWKS 20PELICANS 20ROCKETS 20WIZARDS 30PACERS 30GRIZZLIES 30RAPTORS 30BLAZERS 40MAVERICKS 40HEAT 30CELTICS 80BUCKS 80PISTONS 80JAZZ 80SUNS 80LAKERS 80NUGGETS 80KNICKS 80NETS 100KINGS 10076ERS 200MAGIC 200WOLVES 200HORNETS 2002015-2016 EASTERN CONFERENCE CAVALIERS 5-9BULLS 11-2HAWKS 9WIZARDS 14PACERS 14RAPTORS 14HEAT 14CELTICS 35BUCKS 35PISTONS 35KNICKS 35NETS 4576ERS 80MAGIC 80HORNETS 802015-2016 WESTERN CONFERENCE WARRIORS 5-2THUNDER 5-2CLIPPERS 5SPURS 6PELICANS 10ROCKETS 10GRIZZLIES 15BLAZERS 20MAVERICKS 20       JAZZ 40SUNS 40LAKERS 40NUGGETS 40KINGS 50WOLVES...