We’re going to try and do this more regularly…share the weekly radio appearances each week in one easy to find location. Each market offers a different spin on the weekend’s games including plenty of discussion on the local teams along with the biggest NFL and college tilts 3HL – Nashville http://www.toddstake.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/9-16-15.mp3 TBL – Omaha World Herald Click here to...
Futures Update
posted by Todd
We all know the NFL is affectionately referred to as the “Not For Long” league. There’s no greater illustration of how fluid things are then by eyeballing futures every week during the regular season. There’s already been major change from when teams arrived at camp in late July to now with only 1 meaningful game having been played. Losing a game week 1 is far from a death sentence nor does starting the season with a win ensure a birth in the postseason…hence opportunity can be created. Understanding where to buy low and sell high applies just as regularly to futures wagers as it does the weekly grind of the season. Here are some of the changes in the Westgate future book from late summer as we head towards Week 2. 27-Jul Week 2 Seahawks 5 6 Patriots 8 6 Packers 5 7-2 Broncos 12 12 Cowboys 12 18 Eagles 25 12 Colts 8 12 Lions 40 50 Saints 30 40 Rams 40 40 49ers 60 50 Cardinals 30 25 Steelers 25 25 Ravens 14 25 Bengals 30 25 Texans 30 60 Chargers 30 25 Chiefs 30 20 Giants 30 100 Panthers 30 30 Falcons 30 25 Dolphins 30 18 Bears 50 100 Vikings 50 40 Bills 30 30 Browns 100 300 Redskins 100 300 Jets 60 60 Buccs 100 300 Titans 100 80 Jaguars 100 500 Raiders 100...
Week 1 MNF
posted by Todd
Fourteen games are already in the books but we’re not about to close the book on opening weekend of the NFL just yet. After speaking to a few prominent sportsbook operators the rash of favorites and overs that cashed yesterday for bettors put the house behind the 8 ball to start the season. I don’t expect anyone to cry for the guys in suits behind the counter, they’ll get theirs over the next few weeks. However, the job of @Payneinsider and I is to help you pad that bankroll at their expense. Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our listeners Remember you can subscribe to Bet the Board a number of ways: Listen to it here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD RSS and ITUNES On today’s pod we provided our post mortem for the week that was highlighting surprises and disappointments. There was plenty of discussion on the Week 2 opening lines and where you might be able to find hidden value in the number We also shared a few thoughts on Eagles @ Falcons and Vikings @...
EPL Round 5
posted by Todd
The English Premier league returns from international break with every club trying to get back in the swing of the season. None other than James Kempton is back to cover every single fixture with his own unique gambling spin. Interested in information on lower division leagues in England? James’ stat packs and gold rush column make for a great handicapping tool. Listen to their official EPL Handicapping podcast Everton v Chelsea Chelsea -0.5 and 2.5 goals Chelsea have won five of the last six meetings of the sides but given current form I cannot back them here. The atmosphere should be red hot given the John Stones transfer saga so there could be plenty of cards on display here. I lean towards the over 2.5 goals here but with no real conviction. Arsenal v Stoke City Arsenal -1.5 and 2.75 goals Arsenal have outscored the Potters 17-3 over the seven EPL meetings at the Emirates but this Stoke side is a different animal compared to the blood and thunder teams of Stoke’s early days. I sense there is a bit of value on the away dog as Hughes will set his side up well for this trip given the extra week of planning he has had. Crystal Palace v Manchester City Man City -0.75 and 2.75 goals Palace won this fixture 2-1 last season and hot off of their win at Stamford Bridge they will be very confident going into this game. With so many players jetting off to all parts of the world on international duty it will be interesting to see how City plays here. No real feel for the match market from me but even with the line at 2.75 I lean heavily to the overs. Norwich...
Week 2 Lookaheads
posted by Todd
Every week during the NFL regular season the Westgate Superbook releases advanced lines. These numbers are an outstanding tool to figure out where exactly public perception of a single week’s games impact future numbers. Each week it will be my goal to share these prices and we’ll use them as an integral tool on the Monday edition of Bet the Board podcast as well. NFL WEEK 2 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2015 BRONCOS CHIEFS PK SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2015 TEXANS PANTHERS -2 BUCS SAINTS -7 49ERS STEELERS -7 LIONS VIKINGS -2.5 PATRIOTS -2.5 BILLS CARDINALS -3 EVEN BEARS TITANS BROWNS -4 CHARGERS BENGALS -3.5 RAMS -2.5 REDSKINS FALCONS GIANTS -2.5 RAVENS -4 RAIDERS DOLPHINS -6 JAGUARS COWBOYS EAGLES -4 SEAHAWKS PACKERS -3 EVEN MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2015 JETS COLTS...
Week 1
posted by Todd
The waiting is almost over!!! Come Thursday night we’ll have NFL football that actually means something to everyone involved (not just bettors and 4th stringers). Payne and I offer some thoughts on how to handle stale lines, remaining early season value, and of course a comprehensive breakdown of the season opener. We also introduce a special guest who will become a weekly fixture on the pod every Thursday this fall Miss the season preview? Click here to listen We’re happy to announce our season long partnership with BetOnline including special...
UFC 191
posted by Todd
UFC 191 Johnson vs. Dodson: Mighty Mouse vs. the Magician Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 191. We’ve uncovered what we believe are a few putrid pups patrolling Paradise road in Las Vegas today. Let’s hope these mangy mongrels are up to the task at hand tonight….delivering dog deposits. UFC 2015: 65-77 + $1,668.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). Let’s make note of a couple GambLou.com early releases: On 8-8-15 (Twitter) we advised taking a firm position on Paul Felder -245 claiming that by fight time his price would be -475 or higher. His opponent Ross Pearson seems to be hand chosen to face Felder insomuch as he is older than his age in fight years, is somewhat a plodding fighter, is surely slower and arrives with a breakable beak. We feel the matchmakers set this fight to get Felder back in the win column in order to capitalize on his drawing power. As of this writing Felder is -450 and may well be at our predicted price by the time the parlay patrons are done playing this fight. Felder now must accomplish his goal of winning the fight but those that followed our advice on the 8th own dynamic market advantage into today’s bout. It’s all about value. “Price is what you pay….value is what you get.” Warren Buffett Also released yesterday just after weigh-ins was Ron Stallings -165. While Stallings has many areas of fight improvement he is in a decent spot here. His opponent, Joe Riggs is a...
Season Preview
posted by Todd
We’re baaaaaack!!! Bet the Board returns for it’s second season and we’d like to thank everyone for making year 1 a tremendous success. After intense contract negotiations with professional sports bettor Payneinsider we were able to keep the dream team together. We’re also happy to announce we’ve landed a major sponsor in Bet Online and they’re looking to offer our listeners a great deal to jump start the season. As always feel free to use the hashtag #BetTheBoard during the week to ask any questions you may have regarding the weekly...
EPL Round 4
posted by Todd
The weekend is nearly upon us and that means one thing…EPL Week 4 is about to kick into full swing. Back by popular demand James Kempton offers his thoughts on every fixture for your gambling pleasure. Newcastle United v Arsenal Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals Arsenal has won the last seven straight meetings of the sides, out scoring Newcastle 21-6 but I can’t lay a full goal here! Wenger’s side are under huge pressure right now and against what I see as an improving Newcastle side I see the Gunners extremely vulnerable. It’s the type of game they normally win but maybe not this week…Newcastle could do even do this straight up. Aston Villa v Sunderland Aston Villa -0.5 and 2.25 goals Sunderland have failed to score in each of the last four meetings of the two sides and in six of the last seven. Under 2.5 goals is 10-3 in the last thirteen meetings. This looks a very boring game to me with a heavy draw bias. Unders is the call if I had to bet this game. Bournemouth v Leicester City Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.5 goals Two spunky sides who haven’t read the script yet this season meet here on the south coast. I think the handicap line is set about right for this match but if I was forced to have a bet it would be with a fairly open contest making over the only attractive wager. Chelsea v Crystal Palace Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals Chelsea have not won any of the last four meetings of the sides by more than one goal. That suggests this game should be very tight, I disagree. Palace’s belief they can get a result here may end up being their downfall. Chelsea are back...
Fight Night 74
posted by Todd
Searching for strays in Saskatoon Welcome fight Enthusiasts to today’s UFC card from Canada. We are fresh and as ready to fire as some of the mangy mutts we have our eye on today so let’s get busy. All Fight analysis provided by Gamblou (click here to follow him on twitter) UFC 2015: 61-74 + $1,427.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Silverio -245 vs. Campbell +225 Silverio enters off a devastating TKO loss albeit at the hands of Magomedov but it’s the frame of mind as he returns against a capable striker that we concern ourselves with. Campbell is a striker who if he can keep Silverio at distance will test the will and chin of the Chalk. Silverio’s task will be to get inside and take Campbell (who has less than average takedown D and grappling skills) to the mat. The fighter that dictates pace and position will own advantage in this bout. Silverio opened a fair -160 and has been bet up to current pricing. We will ‘Swing it Easy’ with the hound that we trust has worked on his take down D (something a fighter can improve upon) as he tries to bust the Brazilian’s beak (something a fighter can do nothing about). Campbell +225 (half) Beal -165 vs. Kelades +145 This is a fight we discussed with Morency on MMA Meltdown Radio Tuesday night and honestly we are on an island with this position it seems. Beal surely looks the part of a...
EPL Round 3
posted by Todd
We’re only 2 matches into the EPL marathon and already the pressure is mounting at Stamford Bridge with 2 lethargic efforts from Chelsea. Being in the lower third of the table is unfamiliar territory for Jose Mourinho’s team at any point but with 36 fixtures left to go hardly reason for panic. James Kempton is here with complete thoughts on every match this weekend. If the Premiership isn’t your thing, his stat packs are available for purchase here with information on England’s lower divisions. Click here for complete EPL Podcast Manchester United v Newcastle United Manchester United -1.25 and 2.75 goals Man Utd have won six of the last seven meetings of the sides. They have scored two or more goals in five of those games. The line opened -1.5 and the shrewd punters piled in on Newcastle but I can’t take them personally. If this goal line stays at 2.75 then you have to take a big chunk of the unders. The Toon have conceded twice in both opening games, 2-0 correct score seems about right in this spot. Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Crystal Palace -0.5 and 2.25 goals There have been just three total goals in the last four EPL meetings between these sides. No on BTTS has gone 4-0 and under 1.5 goals is 4-0. I was very impressed with the pace and vibrancy with which Palace played against Arsenal last week, a much different looking attacking side than we saw before Pardew’s arrival. Sometimes though the smaller teams give it everything against the big teams and play more cautiously against the struggling sides. Stick with the unders as I can’t take Palace just yet giving up half a goal. Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pk and 2.5 goals All...
Playing for keeps
posted by Todd
They come from near and far to make it big under the bright lights. Whether it’s the smallest towns in the heart of the south, the suburbs of America’s heartland, or the biggest metropolises dotting the Atlantic seaboard something in the air beckons them to leave their friendly surroundings to chase the dream. Individual talents are diverse but the goal remains the same; coming to Vegas to play in the big leagues where the paychecks dwarf anything they ever thought possible. No, I’m not talking about the allure of becoming a professional athlete but rather about the beautiful coeds intent on using their finely manicured bodies, perfectly sculpted physiques, and flirtatious personalities to capitalize on the lucrative 6 month window that is the Vegas pool season. I may or may not have had this brainstorm one night earlier this summer as Calvin Harris was finishing up his set at Wet Republic while a Wednesday night swim started to wind down. When you think about it in a sports context, life as a bottle girl at the biggest day clubs in Sin City is a lot like being a NFL running back. The offseason is all about working yourself into peak physical condition so your body can take the inevitable pounding knowing that busting your ass for 6 months off the field will eventually lead to massive paydays. Not only are both commodities (running backs and bottle girls) highly sought after during physical peaks, both can see their talent dissipate in the blink of an eye…yes, even at the running back position. “Bringing them into camp is always a crapshoot, you never know which one will be able to make it through an entire season. There’s always someone just as determined waiting in the wings...