UFC 195 Lawler vs. Condit: Welterweight’s wager war All analysis provided by GambLou Welcome fight Enthusiasts to 2016. In the coming year we’re committed to refining our releases and waging our own war against both the linemakers and the matchmakers when it comes to the UFC for as the years wear on both grow more accomplished at their craft. Improvements in fighting acumen by the fighters themselves, keener matchmaking by the organization and more competitive money lines set by the ‘Makers force us to improve our abilities if we are to remain profitable in ‘16. In the UFC (and in all wagering pursuits) if one remains constant in an ever evolving gaming arena then one is bound to be beat down. Therefore…..we’ll commit to undertaking more comprehensive Due Diligence, we’ll work on remaining supremely Selective and as always we’ll manage profitability precisely.   With these basic fundamentals in focus we now turn to our passion….MMA and specifically UFC 195 and the UFC in 2016. UFC 2015: 86-108-2 + $1,446.00 (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure). -Let’s Fight- Westcott -165 vs. Garcia +145 While Westcott may look the part we believe wagering on fighters requires more than handicapping how they appear. Westcott brings 110% for the first 4:30 of a fight then tends to gas. His blueprint is to submit and make no mistake about it Garcia’s submission D is somewhat suspect. That said if we can get Garcia into round two then his cardio, his power, and his stand up could...

It’s always bittersweet when you arrive at the end of the NFL regular season.  Plenty of money making opportunities do exist in the final week but unfortunately the end is near.  However we’re glass half full guys around these parts which means we brought the A game analysis.  PayneInsider sounds off about a few things to look for this week and what we noticed during a tumultuous Week 16. For those wondering the Monday podcast is kaput for the season, our playoff installments will come every Thursday from now until they hand out the Lombardi trophy. Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and ITUNES Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our...

With most of the fixture congestion for this holiday week behind us, Jimmy is back to provide his thoughts on the showdown atop the table and the Wednesday fixture between Sunderland and Liverpool. Let’s chat Leicester! I’ve been speaking to people in the business and they’ve given me the reasons why they continue to price them as they are. They know they were going to get hammered over the weekend at Liverpool at 3/1 but they were not prepared to move away from their long standing models despite some admitting to me they were only really a 15/8 or 2/1 shot today. They claim adjustments have been made as the line at the beginning of the season would have been Liverpool -1.25 and it was -0.5 today so they have adjusted (By the way Leicester would have cashed on that line) They are also neck deep in £5 and £10 bets on Leicester to win the Premiership at prices up to 500-1 as they did not adjust quick enough early in the season. Those bets have been placed weekly up and down the country in thousands and thousands of betting shops. The cumulative liabilities are gigantic! I find it quite stubborn and strange business though that they are waiting for results to return to normal. What happens if they don’t? What are normal results this season? Leicester have now played nearly every team as we are eighteen matches into the season. What I will say though is that it has been a perfect storm for the bookmakers that has emptied their satchels. The start the fixture compilers gave Leicester was very generous and they built up their confidence. The first real test they had was against Arsenal and they failed it, losing 5-2. This...

Bowl season is a special time of year so PayneInsider and I went outside our normal comfort zone to breakdown a few of college football’s biggest games.  We decided that wouldn’t be enough either so we called in a special guest to offer his perspective on the best investments.  Settle in, grab yourself a warm beverage and let our hand picked trio get you to the window Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and ITUNES Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our listeners...

For those unfamiliar with the EPL and it’s holiday traditions Boxing Day football ranks right alongside the American brand of football we’ve grown accustomed to on Thanksgiving.  Thankfully James Kempton is here to serve as a voice of reason amid the holiday chaos. Stoke City v Manchester United Manchester United -0.25 and 2 goals Stoke are unbeaten in the last two league matches against United at the Brittania but they have won just one of fourteen total EPL meetings. Interestingly there have been at least two goals in each of the last thirteen total of the sides but over 2.5 goals is still only 7-6. Is time running out for LVG? Historically United have never sacked managers so soon into their reign but the world has changed and with Jose and Pep lurking there are two big names out there on the outside looking in. I can’t take United here so give me the home team and after last weeks pretty girl comparison maybe I should call them the ‘Sex Potters’? Aston Villa v West Ham Pk and 2.25 goals Under 2.5 goals is on a 4-0 run when the sides meet in EPL action and over a longer period is 11-5. Results favour the home team as since March 1997 there have been just four away wins in the thirty one EPL matches. I see this game panning out just like the Hammers’ trip to Wales last week so I will take the unders here. Let’s be honest if this game was being played in your local park would you even leave the house to go and watch it? Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.5 goals Two great 2-1 away wins were the order of the day for the sides last...

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No bet should be predicated on trends, it’s like trying to offer a literary critique by just reading the Cliffs Notes.  However, it’s always fun to look at some of the irregularities and quirks that take place over an expanded sample size.  Thanks to the folks at OddsShark here are some notes on this Boca Raton Bowl: Temple (10-3) vs Toledo (9-2) – Temple is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against Toledo. Toledo is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games. Toledo is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games after winning the previous game in a matchup. Temple is 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games. Temple is 4-0 SU in its last four games after losing the previous game in a matchup. The total has gone under in 10 of Temple’s last 14 games against the Mid-American.   Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State (8-4) vs Northern Illinois (8-5) – The favorite is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six Poinsettia Bowls. The total has gone under in six of Northern Illinois’ last eight Bowl games. Boise State is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in last six Bowl games. Northern Illinois is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games after a loss. The total has gone under in Northern Illinois’s last three games. The total has gone under in five of Boise State’s last seven games against the Mid-American.   Sun Bowl: Miami (8-4) vs Washington State (8-4) – The total has gone over in five of the last six Sun Bowls. The underdog has covered in five of the last six Sun Bowls. Washington State is 0-3 SU in its last three Bowl games. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four Bowl games....

NFL Week 15 is damn near complete but not before @Payneinsider and I offer up some strong thoughts on the Lions trip to New Orleans.  Monday wouldn’t be complete without a full recap of what we saw over the weekend;  Surprises, disappointments, and much much more.  Plenty of movie discussion to get the holiday juices flowing but spoiler alert Star Wars wasn’t the flick we dissected. Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and ITUNES Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our...

Another weekend of EPL action is upon us and James Kempton is here to be our voice of reason.  The biggest news of the week came at Stamford Bridge where the defending champions sacked their manager Jose Mourinho.  It will be interesting to see if this sparks a Chelsea side that continues to flounder at the bottom of the table Listen to the EPL Podcast Read this week’s Goal Rush column Chelsea v Sunderland Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals Chelsea won this meeting of the sides 3-1 back in May but they have only covered over a minus one goal line in three of the last ten meetings. Over 2.5 goals is 12-2 in the last 14 EPL meets so my initial thoughts that this 2.75 goal line was priced too high may be misguided. Both of these teams have let me down often of late so I’m staying well clear of this game especially with the new found managerial uncertainty as well. Everton v Leicester City Everton -0.5 and 2.75 goals Two 2-2 draws between the sides last season and nothing we have seen so far this campaign makes us think this will be a low scoring game. If we start believing in the Leicester fairytale is that when it will all end? Nothing we have seen so far suggests it will stop and I don’t know why the bookmakers think this untrustworthy Everton side will be the team to stop them. Over 2.5 goals is a combined 21-11 this season for the teams. Away dog and overs for me. Manchester United v Norwich City Man Utd -1 and 2.5 goals The sides have met four times at Old Trafford since October 2011 (including one FA Cup game) and United have outscored the...

NFL Week 15 may not start with a marquee match-up between the Buccs & Rams but it didn’t stop @Payneinsider and I from sharing the most compelling betting angles.  Dave Mason offered up his one of a kind take on liabilities already starting to accrue at his shop for a busy football weekend.  Marquee games? We have those two as we crank it up for a busy week in the National Football League. Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and ITUNES Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our...

All lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook NFL WEEK 16 THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2015 CHARGERS RAIDERS -6.5 SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2015 REDSKINS EAGLES -4 SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2015 GIANTS VIKINGS -3 -120 BEARS BUCS -3 EVEN PANTHERS -6.5 FALCONS COWBOYS BILLS -5.5 JAGUARS SAINTS -3.5 49ERS LIONS -7 BROWNS CHIEFS -11.5 COLTS DOLPHINS xxxx PATRIOTS -3 JETS TEXANS TITANS xxxx PACKERS CARDINALS -4.5 RAMS SEAHAWKS -14 STEELERS RAVENS xxxx MONDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2015 BENGALS BRONCOS -4...

NFL Week 14 is nearly in the books but not before we preview the Monday Night “clash” between the Giants and Dolphins.  Payneinsider had some pretty choice words for a few of the performances we saw over the weekend along with a bit of praise for a few unusual suspects.  Creed got my approval in our weekly movie review, something I never thought I’d have said a few short weeks ago. Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and ITUNES Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our...