Manchester City, Manchester United, or Tottenham: Take your pick
In a three horse race, who will close like a champion?
By James Kempton
Follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro
The transfer window slammed shut on Tuesday January 31st. With that the music started and all the teams began to belt out that Shirley Bassey classic ‘I am what I am’ or in their case: ‘They are what they are’. All the money in the world (Manchester City), the biggest club in the world (Manchester United), or the wheeling and dealing side (Tottenham) cannot help the three title contenders anymore. The title chase is far from the two horse race many believe and great betting opportunities will abound between now and May. I was once taught as a youngster the value in a three horse field is always on the darkhorse; will it apply in the EPL?
With 13 games left the top of the table is as below :
Manchester City P25 W19 D3 L3 GD 45 Pts 60
Manchester United P25 W18 D4 L3 GD 36 Pts 58
Tottenham Hotspur P25 W16 D5 L4 GD 24 Pts 53
Both Manchester teams have their fate in their own hands as the gap is a mere 2 pts. They are set to meet on Monday April 30th at the Etihad Stadium and that could serve as the elimination game. To add extra spice, that is the weekend directly following the second leg of the Europa League semi finals. Both clubs remain at present in that competition and have stated their desire to progress as far as possible. This may mean one, or maybe both, will have had a long journey from somewhere in Europe in midweek. Tottenham hosts struggling Blackburn that weekend and despite needing some help to reach the top of the table, could gain solid ground then.
With just thirteen games to go though it appears impossible for Tottenham to bridge the gap without a serious wobble from at least one of the Manchester clubs. Hotspurs 3-2 defeat at Man City a few weeks ago means they have to gain an extra half point per game more than Man City should they wish to overtake them. Man City currently averages 2.4 points gained per game and without another head to head fixture it suggests Tottenham needs to win out.
Trading Strategies
The next three months will offer us with some excellent situations to take advantage of from a betting perspective. There should be action taken before the next set of fixtures if you believe either Man City or Tottenham will win the league.
Below are different wagering strategies depending on who you believe will take home the title
Manchester City
If you think City will prevail in the title race then logic dictates you have to back them now as their next two games are home to Blackburn and then home to Bolton. Both of those teams concede on average two goals away from home whilst City has allowed just 6 goals at home in 12 games. Following the 2 home dates they travel to Swansea and could be content settling for a point there depending on how other results have panned out.
The time to back City if you are a believer is now.
Tottenham
If Tottenham is your side in the title race then you have an option as they do not play until Sunday at Arsenal. If Man City comes up short against Blackburn Saturday you can take a pass on Tottenham’s tricky trip to face the Gunners. However, if City wins Tottenham must emerge victorious at the Emirates to remain in the title race. I believe Tottenham can win at Arsenal as they proved last season 3-2, and you will get a price offering plenty of value for the game. Tottenham is still a longshot to win the title but if Man City beats Blackburn that price should climb quickly. Will it though? Nope, because the price on City is intrinsically linked to Manchester United. Hence if both City and Tottenham win the prices on both should stay roughly the same. That is the way you can get Tottenham at almost double their current market price to win the overall title. You could even retain a certain amount of your winnings on the Arsenal game to ensure the outright bet is considered a ‘free play’. Following their game against Arsenal, Tottenham plays Man Utd in what is an almost must win game for Tottenham. However, Man City again plays first that weekend as Tottenham hosts United on Sunday afternoon. You must take your lead from the City result as all Tottenham needs to do is match City’s haul of points in the next two games to remain in the title race.
If you believe Tottenham will win the league to extract the maximum value you must back them to win at Arsenal if Man City beats Blackburn on Saturday. Any bet on Tottenham on the outright market should be witheld until at least after they play United a week from Sunday. However, careful selections will see you getting better value on them winning a number of individual matches rather than a future on the outright title.
Manchester United
United is the hardest of all three to assess for selecting a betting strategy. With the showdown against City at the end of April the sense of urgency for Man U isn’t the same as with Tottenham. They play Norwich away next and the expectation is they win that one although it won’t come easy. Sir Alex is not stupid and will realize a point at Tottenham in 2 games time may be considered good enough come May. As a master of mind games, Ferguson and United will use plenty of gamesmanship as they look to overcome their stronger opponents. United is flexible enough to vary their approach in certain games if they just mirror City’s results. If you want to bet United to win the league title you’re best served to wait until the morning of Sunday March 18th before making the wager. If Man U has gained points in the race there will still be a reasonably attractive price and on that day they travel to Wolves whilst City has a tough game with Chelsea the following day. By then Chelsea may be under new leadership as well if the heavily under fire coach Andreas Villas-Boas is removed from his post. Chelsea’s owner Roman Abramovich is notoriously fickle and one more poor performance in the coming weeks could see Villas-Boas shown the door.
If you want to support United be patient, let the price come to you and do not make a bet until after their trip to Tottenham.
These are interesting times ahead for betting the top teams in the Premier League that will provide great spots to make money even if you do not hold the positions until the end of the season.
