Selling Sunderland
Is Sunderland a sleeping giant for bettors or is it about time to sell?
By James Kempton
Follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro
Martin O’Neill has engineered an amazing turnaround at the Stadium of Light since he took over as manager of Sunderland in early December. For those not familiar with O’Neill, he is a master of maximizing the production out of his players. His managerial resume is extremely impressive as he has led his clubs to continually overachieve and I expect him to turn Sunderland into a consistent top half finisher in the coming years.
Before O’Neill took the reigns, Sunderland had won 2 , drawn 5, and lost 7 of their Premier League games. Upon him taking over I expected an immediate response from the players as that is what O’Neill demands and gets from his teams. The response has been incredible with the team winning seven, drawing one, and losing three of their EPL games following his appointment. The 3 losses were to Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham who all reside in the top 6 of the table. They have picked up 22 points under O’Neill compared to only 11 before he arrived or to put it another way, they average exactly 2 pts per game now compared to 0.78 pts per game earlier in the season. These stats alone could prove very valuable over the next month or so for us bettors as market prices should over adjust in certain games.
I do not believe that Sunderland is either as bad as their performances at the beginning of the season nor as good as they have been under O’Neill. If pushed towards one or the other for true impression of the team I sense they are more aligned to the performance in their first 14 games though and that is why I sense there will be opportunities to fade them moving forward.
The impact O’Neill has can only last so long in my opinion on an average EPL team and over time Sunderland’s performances will revert to type. To support this you can draw parallels to the last EPL club he managed, Aston Villa. Sunderland are a very close comparison to Villa both in terms of size of club, ground, history and potential for success moving forward. O’Neill has had eleven games in charge now at Sunderland and I thought it would be interesting to contrast Sunderland’s performance in those games to what he achieved early on at Villa in the 2006/7 season.
Aston Villa P11 W4 D6 L1 Pts 18
Sunderland P11 W7 D1 L3 Pts 22
This clearly shows that O’Neill gets an early lift from his players. Some may argue that those 11 games at Villa were from the start of the season so not a true comparison. However, he took the helm at Villa on the 4th of August in 2006 which was only a short period of time before the season commenced. The squad was, as at Sunderland, a set of inherited players from a previous regime. We can see that there is an instant short term improvement for a team under O’Neill but how does this translate over the medium term in a season. The results at Villa in the next eleven games were an almost opposite of the early season success.
Aston Villa P11 W1 D5 L5 Pts 8
I am not sure you can expect Sunderland to win just one game in their next 11 but there are some other factors to be considered here in addition to the historical parallels. O’Neill was appointed to keep Sunderland away from the dreaded relegation zone and this run has ensured their survival. Now that relegation has been avoided there may be an element of relief and drop off in the energy for upcoming matches. Sunderland also remains in FA Cup contention and are only 3 games away from Wembley. With the likes of both Manchester teams eliminated should Sunderland beat Arsenal in their next game on February 18th, they may shift focus to games in that competition. Winning the FA Cup still offers the victor European competition next season and potentially much needed additional revenue for O’Neill to spend in the summer. Another key factor is I am not sure the managerial style of O’Neill has evolved over time and this may be evidenced by the game last weekend. In sixteen previous games against Arsenal he had achieved only one win. I was interested to see how his Sunderland team coped against Arsenal as both sides were headed in opposite directions. If ever an O’Neill team should have been able to avoid defeat or even win the game it was last weekend. Despite taking the lead, Sunderland succumbed to a 2-1 defeat and continued a well known O’Neill trend.
In no way am I suggesting you should fade Sunderland blindly till the end of the season. These need to be targeted positional stances you should take in certain games where there is value to be had. In his time at Aston Villa O’Neill had a very good counter attacking side and there are some elements of that in his current squad. They rely heavily on young James McClean and Stephane Sessegnon for their creative threat. Any game in which either one or both of those key players do not play in would interest me greatly in terms of opposing Sunderland. They are a high energy team more suited to playing at a frenetic pace at home rather than on their travels. At Villa his side had a good record in avoiding defeat but his players in the midfield area were of a higher quality. The players at his disposal at Sunderland are less adept at ball retention so they are vulnerable on their travels when they lose the possession battle. Their next game sees them travel to West Brom and this may be a great spot to oppose them. West Brom’s recent 5-1 drubbing of local rivals Wolves will see them come into this game with renewed confidence. If Sunderland draw that home tie in the FA Cup with Arsenal they will face a replay a few days after this game. That would make West Brom a strong selection in my opinion as given the current table positions as West Brom is desperate to retain EPL status.
If there is no replay I would advise that trip to West Brom is used by us as a barometer as to how Sunderland may progress between now and the end of the season. If they draw or lose that game then it could be a big red flag on them going forward and a sign to oppose them. Following that game you should give extra attention to any game on the road where the home team can be backed at +130 or higher. I would seriously look to go against them in any home game where they can be opposed at even money or shorter. All through the season they have not been favourites in many games and the atmosphere at games where you are expected to win is decidedly different than ones where you enter as an underdog. Sunderland has some big games against sides in danger of relegation so the extra fight those teams display may be enough to overcome a comfortably placed mid table Sunderland side.
Keep the stats from his spell at Villa in mind as it would appear O’Neill has a loud and much listened to voice. After impressive starts, both O’Neill’s team and his messages start to fade.
