Boxing Day

Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion
Arsenal -1.5 and 3 goals

Arsenal have won the last five meetings of the sides at The Emirates by a combined scoreline of 12-1. The Gunners have won seven of their seventeen EPL games this season by more than just one goal, that equates to 70% of their victories by more than one goal. The Baggies let us down last time out by losing 2-0 to Man Utd so it is hard to go back to the well with them again here. Arsenal choked last weekend as they had their foot on Man City’s throat and took it away whilst the Blues were still breathing. How will they react here? A watching brief for me but I sense they may struggle.

Burnley v Middlesbrough
Scratch and 2 goals

The sides have met nine times since September 2011 in all competitions with under 2.5 goals going 7-2 and No on Both Teams To Score going 6-3. Burnley are 5-1-3 on home soil this season and they welcome a Middlesbrough side who are 1-5-2 on the road with their only win achieved at Sunderland! Give me the home team to earn all three points here. Burnley should be favoured. 

Chelsea v Bournemouth
Chelsea -1.75 and 3 goals

This game is more about Bournemouth in terms of how they react after that 3-1 loss at home to Southampton. The Cherries are 1-2-5 away from home with that solitary win at West Brom. Bournemouth have lost by two or more goals already against Arsenal, Man City and Man Utd so far this season. Boxing Day fixtures can be strange affairs so laying so much on the handicap is not appealing but I lean to the home favourite.

Leicester City v Everton
Leicester -0.25 and 2.5 goals

The sides have met four times over the past two seasons and there have been at least four goals in each of those matches. Forget Yes on Both Teams To Score as Yes on Both Teams To Score Twice has landed in three of those four games. The spirit that Leicester showed in that result against Stoke last weekend really does give me confidence that they are turning the corner. Everton are deflated after that last gasp derby day defeat so give me the home team and overs.

Manchester United v Sunderland
Man Utd -1.75 and 3 goals

Welcome back David Moyes! United have won the last two meetings at Old Trafford 3-0 and 2-0 as only one of the last seven meetings at OT has seen four or more goals. United are in good form but their good form these days is not really exciting form is it? It is workmanlike and at times still hard to watch. When Sunderland play good teams they lose; they are 0-0-5 against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Tottenham with the goal ratio being 10-2. Sunderland have Burnley on deck so their attention will surely be on that winnable game. United should win this game by at least two goals so I sense a half win is your worst case scenario here. Back United.

Swansea City v West Ham United
PK and 2.5 goals

The last three meetings of the sides at the Liberty Stadium have ended all square with two matches ending goalless and the other finishing one apiece. The Hammers have netted just that one goal in their four EPL trips to take on the Swans with the other meeting, their first in August 2012, seeing the home team emerge 3-0 victors. Swansea have conceded at least three goals in four of their last five EPL games and at least twice in twelve of their seventeen league matches. If Bob Bradley loses here I think he is out the door because the Swans cannot afford to go into critical games against Bournemouth home and Crystal Palace away with a dead man walking in charge. Really like West Ham in this spot but the historical trends should make you pass the game.

Hull City v Manchester City
Man City -1.5 and 3 goals

The sides have met nine times in all competitions since November 2008 and Yes on Both Teams To Score has gone 7-2. The Blues have scored in each of those games piling up twenty two goals in total. There was a tipping point in Man City’s game last Sunday against Arsenal as at 1-0 down they had two options, lie down and die or fight. They chose to fight and I think that could be the turning point in their season. Give me City to get the job done here but trusting them to cover this line with Liverpool on deck on New Years Eve is the bigger challenge.

Liverpool v Stoke City
Liverpool -1.5 and 3.25 goals

There have been five 1-0 results, four to Liverpool and one for Stoke, in the last eight total meetings of the sides. Since Stoke came into the EPL in the 2008-09 season No on Both Teams To Score is 13-7 in all competitions meaning history tells us this could be a tight game. The public love Liverpool and the money will pour in for them but Stoke have conceded more than once in just two of their last twelve games with those two occurrences happening in their last three outings. I lean to Stoke but fear the Liverpool juggernaut unleashing on home soil. Maybe overs is a safer play than than the away underdog but I think I will pass.

Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur
PK and 2.25 goals

Over 2.5 goals is 5-3 between these sides since Southampton returned to the EPL in August 2012. Spurs are unbeaten in the four games at St Marys and have outscored the Saints 9-5 in their three wins with a draw on the south coast. These two teams are very similar in terms of how they are built and set up. Spurs are just a much better version of the Saints and I like them here to at least avoid defeat and I also lean to the under as I am not convinced that this Southampton attacking line up can breach the visitors’ defence.