EPL Round 3
From the outset I have to say this is a very tough looking week as we wait for the form lines to develop. It is a long season so there is no need to rush into bets just for the sake of making bets or as my buddies like to say, “be involved in the action.” A marathon rather than a sprint it truly is so do not unload your bankroll early on in the campaign for games that look tight. In weeks like this I spread the risk over more games but drastically lower the stakes.
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
Tottenham -0.25 and 2.75 goals
The game of the week is the first game of the weekend! Last season we saw two games hit an under 2.5 goals as both ended all square. Prior to that over 2.5 goals was on a 6-0 run when these sides face off in EPL action. Liverpool are unbeaten in the last seven meetings of the sides with Spurs’ last win at White Hart Lane back in November 2012. After last weekends’ debacle at Burnley only a mad man would back Liverpool in this spot. I expect the influential Mane to return into the Reds’ midfield and I see him as a huge threat going forward for the Reds. With the lines set as they are though I can only offer a tentative lean towards the home team minus a quarter of a goal but even that is based on my trust of Tottenham over my dis-trust of the Reds.
Chelsea v Burnley
Chelsea -1.5 and 2.75 goals
Don’t leave your seats early at Stamford Bridge this week as we’ve seen twice already this season that the Blues like to leave it late. After that shock win at home to Liverpool last week the pressure has been lifted off Burnley and they can almost treat this as a free hit. I have a feeling that Chelsea will be ready to unleash on a team but Burnley snatched a draw in February 2015 from their trip to Stamford Bridge during the Blues’ last title winning season. It’s a steep handicap to overcome so early in the season but I sense quiet optimism around Stamford Bridge meaning I’m happy to back them on what I would normally consider to be a prohibitive line.
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Eagles fans fear not as Christian Benteke is here to save the day following successive 1-0 defeats to open the season. Bournemouth won this game in south London 2-1 last season so despite their poor start to the season they travel here confident in gaining a result. It was good of Palace defender Damian Delaney to remind us all in the press this week that Benteke is not the second coming of Lionel Messi and that he alone will not rescue Palace’s season. Thanks Damian! On opening day Palace gave up half a goal to West Brom which was too much of a handicap start to surrender. Here at just a quarter of a goal maybe there is a slight touch of value with the home team but until we see more from both I am happy to pass this game.
Everton v Stoke City
Everton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Stoke won 4-3 at Goodison Park just after Christmas but the Toffees earned some credit back for their fans with a rare Roberto Martinez led clean sheet in a 3-0 win at the Britannia Stadium in February. Everton have won just four of the last fourteen meetings of the sides so this will be no easy out for Ronald Koeman’s charges. Given the trends in the fixture I am a bit surprised by this market price. Everton may very well win but at -0.75 you cannot back them until we know a little bit more about both sides.
Leicester City v Swansea City
Leicester -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Leicester won the two sides’ meetings last season by a combined score of 7-0 and each of the last four meetings (three Leicester wins) saw No on BTTS land. Leicester look to have the measure of the Swans’ attack and the Welsh team have a weakness at set pieces. King Power is not the place you want to go with frailties like that at the back. It could be a nervous game for the Foxes as they look to get off the mark so rather than trusting them giving up three quarters of a goal just back them straight up as probably the best bet of the week.
Southampton v Sunderland
Southampton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Sunderland look deep in trouble already as the signings of Januzaj and Pienaar seem to symbolise the lack of faith that the Mackem fans have in their team. It was one apiece when the sides met in March as Sam Allardyce was working his magic on a poor Sunderland team. Sunderland are awful and the goals of Jermaine Defoe look the only way that they can stay in this league meaning any injury to him could serve as a death knell to hopes of staying in the Premiership. Against anyone bar the elite sides you have to fancy Sunderland with Defoe in their side to nick a goal. In view of that can you favour the Saints at this stage of the season from what we have seen so far minus three quarters of a goal? The answer in my opinion is no.
Watford v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.75 and 2.5 goals
It was heartbreak for the Hornets last Saturday as Diego Costa sunk them in the last minute at home to Chelsea. Arsenal were booed off again, this time at Leicester, as they put in a pretty dismal showing on the attack. At least they did manage to keep a clean sheet but that was thanks largely to the Foxes not being awarded at least one penalty after they had two great shots. Arsenal won both league meetings last season 4-0 at the Emirates and 3-0 here at Vicarage Road but the Hornets did win 2-1 at the home of the Gunners in the FA Cup. The pressure is on Mr Wenger and they need all three points here ahead of Transfer Deadline Day. The value is with the home side in my opinion plus three quarters of a goal but I won’t be backing it and instead may look to a rather nervous looking encounter going under the 2.5 goal line.
Hull City v Manchester United
Manchester United -1 and 2.5 goals
This is a free hit for the Tigers as two successive wins sees them sit in a healthy position up near the top of the table. They will have harder games than last week at Swansea but the way they soaked up the pressure and hit the Swans on the break showed that Mike Phelan is getting them well organised. It was another disciplined performance from United last Friday night easily beating Southampton 2-0. This United side look far too well drilled, organised, and talented not to get the job done in this spot. Even laying a full a goal they look the side to be on.
West Bromwich Albion v Middlesbrough
PK and 2 goals
It always troubles me on these sorts of lines when I feel myself wanting to bet a side away from home who I do not think will finish in the top twelve of the table at the end of the season. Middlesbrough are the side I’d want to be on but I just can’t take them at this price point. The goal line is set at two and I am keen to find an angle to go over but despite my best efforts I can’t. A 0-0 correct scoreline bet may offer some fun for those who enjoy watching paint dry and present some value in a game of little aesthetic appeal.
Manchester City v West Ham
Manchester City -1.75 and 3 goals
The last nine meetings of these two teams in all competitions have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 7-2. The Hammers won this game 2-1 last September as they sent out an early warning signal to the rest of the EPL that they were a team that should be taken seriously. The fitness of Dimitri Payet is key as if he is not in the West Ham starting line up then I will have to take the home team even on this handicap line. If the talented Frenchman does make it into the Hammers’ first choice eleven then I shall be passing the game. Either way it could be a very rough day for the Hammers at the Etihad as City look to be gelling quickly.
