EPL Round 34
Football action is heating up all over Europe…just at the same time a lot of the drama we’ve come to expect in the Premiership come April is subsiding. That being said our EPL insider James Kempton is back to share his thoughts on all the big matches this weekend while offering up some strong investments
Norwich City v Sunderland
Norwich -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Norwich won 3-1 in the north east back in August and they’re undefeated against the Mackems in the last five EPL meets between the clubs. This is a real leave alone game for me as although Norwich have won two and drawn one of their last four games you cannot trust them to beat a Sunderland side who’ve not lost to a bottom half placed team since mid December. I’m not sure Sunderland would view a point as a good result though so I’m wary of taking them with a quarter goal on the handicap. If the game is tight late into the game the away team may leave themselves open as they search for the winning goal.
Everton v Southampton
Everton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Internal turmoil has beset Everton for the first time in a very long time. The Goodison Park crowd have turned on Martinez and to be honest I’m just surprised it’s not happened sooner. Everton won 3-0 at St Marys earlier this season and they’ve won the last three EPL meetings of the teams at Goodison Park since the Saints returned to the top flight. However, the atmosphere is not great on Merseyside and Everton are 3-6-8 against the top half placed sides so it’s a brave man who backs the Toffees here despite that convincing win at Southampton. Give me the Saints to at least avoid defeat here.
Manchester United v Aston Villa
Man Utd -1.75 and 2.75 goals
Time is nearly up for this wretched Villa squad and the last thirteen meetings of the sides in all competitions has seen eleven United wins and two draws. United have been poor against bottom third placed sides but they’ve only conceded twice in five games at Old Trafford in this spot (both to Norwich). Villa have lost all six of their trips to top third placed sides, conceding nineteen times in the process, so who in their right mind would back them here? United should score at least twice whilst Villa will struggle to find the net at all. I wish the line was -1.5 but even at -1.75 I still heavily lean to the home side. This is the kind of cannon fodder that LVG and co will like to feast on to pad their beloved stats.
Newcastle United v Swansea City
Newcastle -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Swansea won 2-0 in Wales back in August and they have scored at least twice in each of the last five meetings of the sides which has helped them earn thirteen points from those matches. Will the home crowd get behind a team whose season long record is 3-2-10 against fellow bottom half placed teams? The trends would suggest the over is a very interesting bet given Swansea’s propensity to score goals against Newcastle and even Rafa can’t organise this rag tag Newcastle defensive unit. I will take some of the over 2.25 goals.
West Bromwich Albion v Watford
West Brom -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Move straight on from the match market people as there is nothing to see and head to the goals market. The first thing I thought when I saw this game on the weeks card was could the goal line be set below two goals, maybe a 1.75 line? It was a dour goalless draw when the sides met earlier this season at Vicarage Road. The teams’ thirty combined games against fellow bottom half placed sides have yielded just fifty three total goals. The goal line should be set at two goals in my eyes so I will take a little bit of this under 2.25 as that extra quarter goal is a gift you cannot ignore.
Chelsea v Manchester City
PK and 2.5 goals
Chelsea hammered City 5-1 in the FA Cup a couple of months ago as a makeshift City lineup got butchered on live television. That won’t be lost on City going into this game and in EPL action it was City who had the upper hand as they won 3-0 in Manchester back in August. Chelsea are just 2-4-4 against the top third this season and now that PSG game is out of the way Man City should be fully focused for this ficture. I’d favour Man City here as the home side seem to be in a learning phase about their fringe and younger players whilst City will have revenge firmly on their mind.
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The Cherries won 2-1 at Villa Park last Saturday with a fine win that shows just how far they’ve come in their very first EPL season. Liverpool come into this game after that home Europa League game with Dortmund and the 4-1 home battering of Stoke. The sides have met twice this season, once in the Capital Cup and once in the EPL, both at Anfield with Liverpool running out narrow 1-0 winners on each occasion. The previous two seasons have also seen cup victories by the Reds on the south coast so they will be confident ahead of this trip. I lean to the away team but with no real conviction coming off that emotional second leg against Dortmund.
Leicester City v West Ham United
Leicester -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Leicester already have two 2-1 victories over the Hammers under their belts this season as an August EPL victory was followed up by a Capital One Cup victory in September. Last season they won this meeting of the sides at the King Power also by a scoreline of 2-1. This is such an intriguing game in the sense that Leicester don’t need to win this game whereas West Ham, to keep their Champions League hopes alive, really need all of the three points. This could play into Leicester’s counter attacking style so it’s definitely home win or pass.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Arsenal -1.5 and 3 goals
Oh Arsenal, you couldn’t even tease your fans with a win at Upton Park last weekend could you? These final few games for the Gunners may see acrimonious scenes in the stands as the loyal Wenger fans clash with the ones who’ve had enough! Arsenal are an overall 10-1-1 against the bottom third and their ball retention style has seen them dominate possession and only concede five times in those games. The Gunners have been prolific in front of goal of late as they have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight EPL games. I will take them to at least match that feat here and given Palace’s struggles in these spots, nine defeats in twelve against the top third, I will take the home side on the handicap line.
Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Spurs kept their title hopes alive with a six minute blitz of Man Utd last time out whilst Stoke let us down badly when they lost 4-1 at Liverpool. Will there be even more pressure on Spurs if Leicester slip up against West Ham? There are so many psychological aspects we now have to take into account for a Spurs team and set of players that who we’ve no historical data to compare how they react in these spots. A tough game but if I needed to bet this match I’d lean Tottenham.
