Oddsmaker’s Take
Every oddsmaker handles major injuries differently, especially in the NFL. Eventually the market settles on a number as wagering dollars flood into books. This time of year keeping a game off the board for an extended period of time is revenue lost.
However books need to balance the risk reward of hanging a price that might not correctly reflect the health of key contributors. One of the largest offshore books waited until Friday to hang a price on Steelers vs Broncos; here are the thoughts of Shane Catford, head oddsmaker at Bookmaker, on establishing the proper line for Steelers @ Broncos.
Another Ben Roethlisberger injury, and another delayed opening line. We just couldn’t expose ourselves by putting up a bad number without all of the necessary information. Big Ben is in the same tier as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers when it comes to value to a point spread or total. He’s worth minimum seven points to a spread.
Prior to the Wild Card Round, our team was targeting a 4-point spread for a potential Pittsburgh-Denver matchup. Of course, everything changed once Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown were injured.
If both Roethlisberger and Brown weren’t able to play, we’re looking at a 13- or 14-point spread. Once our sources were confident Big Ben was going to give it a go, we opened the line at Broncos -7.
We obviously couldn’t use the initial line because of Roethlisberger’s playing condition and Brown’s availability. There aren’t many skill players other than quarterbacks that have enough value in our eyes to impact a line, but Antonio Brown does. He’s such a vital piece of their offensive scheme so we value him at 1-2 points, depending on the opponent.
It remains to be seen how limited Roethlisberger will be with the shoulder injuries. The guy is as tough as they get and we’ve seen him play through a ton of pain, but you have to assume he’s going to be limited in some fashion.
