Mid Week Report
The schedule makes have given us all a treat with mid-week fixtures in the EPL. After some crazy results in the FA Cup over the weekend, the biggest clubs in England return to league play and James Kempton is here to break it all down
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Pk and 2.25 goals
I find it extremely unlikely that this very well organised Palace side lose this game as they are 6-3-2 overall against the bottom half. Villa are atrocious but they always seem to get the benefit of the doubt from the books in terms of their pricing for home games. They haven’t won since the first day of the season so what makes anyone think they grab a victory here? Some good value on Palace on the Pk line.
Bournemouth v West Ham United
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The Hammers are an overall 3-6-1 against bottom half placed teams this season. Here they travel to the south coast and a point would be a good result for both teams given the home teams plight. Bournemouth are just 2-4-5 against top half teams and with West Ham losing just two of their last seventeen league matches I cannot see any reason why they are priced at plus half a goal. I really like West Ham here in this spot.
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Manchester United -0.5 and 2.25 goals
This game evokes memories of that 5-1 Newcastle win in the mid 1990s and the famous Phillipe Albert chip over a rooted Peter Schmeical. However, I’m not sure this game will have six chances let alone six goals! Man Utd have won their last three trips to St James’ Park to nil and I’m sure that’ll be the plan for LVG for this visit. Newcastle are 1-1-6 when taking on top third teams and have scored just four goals in those eight matches. Everything is pointing to a low scoring grind of a game here where it’s probably the away team team or pass.
Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion
Chelsea -1.25 and 2.5 goals
West Brom still sit higher in the table than their hosts but they have gained only one point from their nine EPL trips to Stamford Bridge since October 2002. Can we really take anything from this seasons trends when it comes to Chelsea? They are a different team in the last few weeks post Mourinho than earlier in the campaign. If you take into account the Baggies’ record at Stamford Bridge it makes me want to completely pass this game.
Manchester City v Everton
Manchester City -1 and 3.25
Everton used to have a good record at the Etihad but they have not won any of their last four trips to the blue side of Manchester. Under 2.5 goals is 7-2 in EPL meetings since September 2011. We saw last midweek in the League Cup that goals can be difficult to come by when these sides meet as after 75 minutes it was just 1-0 to Everton. Two goals in those final fifteen minutes saw it end 2-1 to Everton so although I want to go under 3.25 can you trust either defence to keep it tight? Probably not but it’s such a high number I have to lean to the under.
Southampton v Watford
Southampton -0.5 and 2.25 goals
These teams have polar opposite form lines when they take on sides who are placed in and around them in the middle of the table. Southampton are a poor 0-3-2 against fellow mid third of the table sides and have scored only one goal in those five games. Watford are 2-3-0 in this same spot and have conceded just twice. Those ten games for the teams in this spot have combined for just fifteen total goals and the first meeting of the sides this season ended goalless. Away dog and unders for me here.
Stoke City v Norwich City
Stoke -0.5 and 2.25 goals
The sides have met seven times in EPL action since August 2011 and under 2.5 goals is 7-0. I’m really surprised that this goal is set at just half a goal and had it not been for that loss at West Brom last Saturday I’m sure it’d have been Stoke -0.75 for this game. I like the home team and given their more free flowing style I will not be siding with those unders trends. At some point soon I’m expecting Stoke to hammer somebody. Could this be the night?
Swansea City v Sunderland
Swansea -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Under 2.5 goals is 6-3 since August 2011 in EPL meetings and three of those games ended completely goalless. Sunderland have won just one of those nine meetings. Recent games for Swansea has seen them score only five goals in their last ten EPL games. Big Sam will set Sunderland up to be difficult to break down and this could end goalless or be decided by a solitary goal. Unders.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Pk and 2.5 goals
It was goalless at the Emirates back in August but prior to that the previous ten games had all seen at least two goals scored. Each of the last nine games at Anfield have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals hitting 11-4 on Merseyside since December 2000. The home team are well rested after they weren’t asked to make that trip to Exeter on Friday night so they will put in a big effort. Give me this to be a fast frenetic game where we see Klopp in his element on the touchline waving his arms like a mad man. Overs in a thriller where we could see four or five goals.
Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City
Tottenham -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Yes on BTTS has hit in each of the three EPL meetings of the sides over this season and last. It will be interesting to see how Spurs set up as their high pressing style suits the way Leicester break on their opponents. It may even be a case of watching the first five minutes to get a feel of how both teams are setting up. If Spurs treat Leicester’s attack with the respect they deserve it will make it very hard for the away team to get anything.
