UFC 189
UFC 189 Mendes vs. McGregor: Viva Las Vegas!
Welcome Enthusiasts to the much anticipated UFC 189. We attended weigh-ins yesterday and in my life I have seen or experience nothing like the mass hysteria and Irish invasion witnessed yesterday at the MGM Grand. There are several great matchups on these cards so as usual we’ll focus exclusively on bouts that give us the greatest advantage for profit and gaming value. One thing to note, the magnitude of the UFC 189 card does not entice us to make monetary wagers other than we execute for any other fight card. We choose to play half or full unit positions on 99% of the fights we release. On the occasion that we uncover obtuse value from the marketplace or may obtain advantage by adding investment to an original position we will do so….but we do so based on gaming value not on the magnitude or scope of any particular fight(s).
UFC 2015: 47-53 + $1,545.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Let’s Fight-
Smolka -125 vs. Seery +115
Neil Seery is an Irish boxing based MMA artist that offers deep experience, fine striking and is tough as a three dollar steak. He faces a complete fighter in Louis Smolka however that will enter the Octagon with Fightmetric advantage. Smolka is better than a decade younger; he’s the taller man by 5” as well he will hold a 5” reach advantage over Seery. Smolka opened a fair -170 and the money has seeped in on Seery. We feel Smolka can keep Seery away on the feet with his reach and decent striking game until he can get the more one dimensional Irish fighter to the floor. We like Smolka to smother…
Smolka -125
Pendred -110 vs Howard -110
John Howard was brought back to the UFC to fight on the Boston card in 2013 and beat the inconsistent Uriah Hall. Howard followed that fight with another win but it’s his last three fights that have us believing that he is in over his skis against the Irishman Cathal Pendred that will have the Irish droves behind him and a chance to move to 5-0 in the UFC. Remember too that the UFC is preparing for a fight in Dublin so this matchup to us seems favorable for Pendred. Cathal is five years younger, 6’ taller and will own a 4” each advantage over the wresting based Howard. While Pendred has been on the fortunate side of some close decisions we view him as a more complete fighter that will push a good pace. He has fine take down defense which could frustrate Howard in his attempt to take this fight to the mat. Pendred opened -190 and the flow has been on Howard. We respectfully disagree with the movement and will take the value with
Pendred -110
Brown -185 vs. Means +165
Matt Brown is a great UFC story as he is the epitome of an overachiever that has worked his way into the top tier of the division. That work ethic and his history contribute to the fact that Brown is actually a bit older in fight years than 34. Brown will be giving up height and age to a younger faster striker in Means who is making an ascent in the UFC while we see Brown’s best as being behind him. Means is the fresher fighter who enters this fight with tremendous confidence and a body attack that will contribute to his efforts in this fight. In the weigh-in Brown went right to Means and Means would have none of it backing up Brown in the process. Telling.
Means +165
Bermudez -205 vs Stevens +190
We talked Jeremy Stevens on MMA meltdown radio and on ESPN 1100 in Las Vegas this week as a fighter we had targeted based on weigh-ins. Stevens showed up 4.5 pounds OVER weight which is a red flag! We tweeted immediately that this fight was a pass for us. We preach here the disadvantage there is to missing weight. We feel Stevens will come loaded for bear and if Dennis can withstand the first round the cardio advantage Bermudez will have will be substantial but this is only our feel….
Pass
Lawler +160 vs MacDonald -170
Lawler gets listed first here even though he is the underdog because he is the champion and has earned top billing. This is a rematch and it’s our belief that the advantage lies with the fighter that lost previously when two fighters vie in a second fight. Lawler will come prepared and ready to defend the belt he toiled years to grasp. In this circumstance there are very few fighters that would be in position to wrest the Championship from Robbie tonight because of his singular focus, dynamic training and his goliath heart. That said we feel Rory MacDonald is the prototypical MMA artist and is ready to fire. He is calm, he’s cool and he’s a killer! In this fight he will own height, age and reach advantages over the Campion. Even though Robbie is a southpaw that advantage may well mean less since these two have tussled prior. Rory’s precision striking, his cardio and his drive to be Champion are tangible and to us will be advantages in this fight as we enter the Championship rounds for this one is certain to go deep. Ultimately it will be Rory’s ability to get Robbie to the floor and control the older fighter that we see as the determining factor in this fight’s outcome. We’ve been on Rory since this line was released and own him at -140, -150, -160 and -170. We believe the Welterweight title changes hands tonight and after tonight we feel it will not change hands for quite some time….Rory is a talented young fighter.
MacDonald -170
McGregor -185 vs. Mendes +165
Fight Enthusiasts have been bombarded with Conor’s motor mouth and his brazen personality. While he is relatively unproven in his UFC career his braggadocios style coupled with his dominations over handpicked opponents have provided the UFC with a shining star who is a cash cow as he delivers droves of new young fans that new little of the UFC prior to the arrival of this Gaelic goliath. McGregor is a superb striker, fast as lightning with exceptional reach and calibrated confidence. What he is lacking many say is a win over a world class wrestler for those that study this game believe that while capable on the feet he is untested on the floor. Enter Chad Mendes on short notice. Mendes is the world class wrestler many believe could be up to the task of muting the Irishman’s mouth. Mendes shows up with just a couple to three weeks of preparation and while we do understand that this kid walks around close to fight shape this is cause for some concern. He is also giving up height, reach and age advantages to the southpaw Irishman….all advantages we are unable to ignore. Mendes opened -130 and is now tipping the +165 mark (higher here in Las Vegas as I’m seeing +180) so the value monger in us is very tempted to take the wrestler here and see if he can pay dividends. To us McGregor looks like he is emaciated, we feel he is wound extremely tight and his display both in the weigh-ins when Chad got in his face and in essence ‘Bullied the Bully’ coupled with the complete snap job Conor displayed back stage with Uriah Faber has us believing that he is ripe in this spot for a schooling against a more experienced Mixed martial Artist. His numerous interviews and potential distractions, the weight of carrying the whole of Ireland on his back, his weight cut, the realization that he is not in Chad’s head and the looming fight seem to us to be getting to Conor….just my opinion. There is great value on Mendes who opened -130 and is now +165 off shore (+180 here in Las Vegas). We’re taking the value.
Mendes +165 (or higher)
