UFC 187
UFC 187: Cormier vs. Johnson/Weidman vs. Belfort: Chasing Chalk?
(Fight analysis provided by Gamblou)
Welcome Enthusiasts to one of the most stacked UFC fight cards in months. On first blush this slate seems to be steeped in chalk….as of 5-21-15 the average price on the favorite is -364 (and climbing) and that is with the Main Event being a pick-em price!*
These firm favorites lead most to believe that finding live dogs on this card could be an arduous task but we feel that there will be a mangy mutt or two that will show up and bite the parlays players in the rear. Our role is to determine which mongrels will show up tonight for one thing we are confident about is that the fight game can be tricky and those believing that the chalk positions are foregone conclusions may well be in for a surprise. We are of the mindset that it just is not that easy to maneuver the Makers. So it is with respect and a keen eye that we submit the following positions for UFC 187.
UFC 2015: 32-39 +482.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display our profitability while providing our readers with 100% transparency).
Covington -260 vs. Pyle +240
Covington is an improving fighter with a wrestling based background yet he steps into this fight on relative short notice against a guy that is fighting for his UFC life. No doubt Covington is hungry and Pyle’s chin is of question but Pyle is a major step up in class for Covington. Pyle can strike has a vast experience edge and utilizes superior take down defense all of which are terrific tools in this fight. Covington opened a fair -170 and now he is -310?
Pyle +240(half)
Hall -380 vs. Natal + 340
Hall is a fighter that we view and an inflated chalk. He sports the reach to take advantage of his striking superiority but we feel this fight is not going to a standing affair. It will be Natal’s goal to smother the striker up close and personal in order to use his wrestling/Jiu-Jitsu expertise to get this maul to the mat in order to hold advantage. Hall’s mental fortitude is more delicate than a spring tulip and this will be his firmest fight to date. While we recognize that Natal cannot allow his chin to get chipped we will opt for value and take the Brazilian in this upset bid.
Natal +340(half)
Benavidez -650 vs Moraga +540
We give respect to Benavidez for being just below championship caliber in the Flyweight division. He’s a great wrestler with good striking ability. What we question most is what he has to fight for since being beat down twice by the Champion Mighty Mouse. His most recent fight against Ortiz makes us question the direction this fighter is going to be honest. Benavidez is older in fight years than his chronological 30 years and is giving up size and reach to his opponent John Moraga. While many feel Benavidez is more capable than Moraga in all aspects of this fight we respectfully disagree since these two have not fought. Our opinion happens to be just the opposite! Moraga has only lost to the division’s top two fighters Johnson and Dodson. This clash to determine the third most capable fighter in the division seems to us to be destined to go to a decision. Moraga is a wrestling based fighter who can surely strike. He’s taken this camp seriously and has prepared in earnest by working out with his childhood amigo Henry Cedujo for this matchup. Moraga at the opening price of +335 seemed a bit too high to us so at current +470 we see value in a guy that still has much to fight for.
Moraga +540 (half) Moraga points handicap +3.5 +220
Cormier +100 vs. Johnson -120
Don’t judge a book by the Cormier!
What a super matchup for the Light Heavyweight title! Surely this is the ‘Styles make fights’ matchup of the night.
Anthony Johnson arrives with tremendous momentum and the ability to knock a building down with one punch. Johnson’s move up to 205 has given him new life for he seems unstoppable using his power to dominate. Johnson has made great strides with maturity since his release from the organization some time ago. What we question with Johnson is his fight IQ, his cardio if taken late into a fight and his heart when the going gets tough for since his tear at 205 he’s not been really tested in any of these areas. In a recent fight against Phil Davis, Mr. Wonderful (a formidable wrestler) fought AJ only to survive as he was not able to take the stronger more muscular man down and was unwilling to do what it took to stay with the plan choosing instead to fight from the outside which is something that will not happen tonight. In Johnson’s domination of Alex Gustafsson, Johnson bull rushed the Swede like JJ Watt after a quarterback. This fight plan was highly effective against the longer, cocky and overconfident Swede but it will not suffice against Johnson’s opponent Saturday night for rushing into Cormier will prove to be a most costly mistake.
Daniel Cormier hardly looks the part of superior UFC fighter for his body is not cut and his physique not chiseled out of marble. Don’t judge this fighter by his shape! His body type resembles more the baker in an Italian Bakery than a world class mixed martial artist…..but do not let that fool you. Cormier is a killer! Cormier up until his fight in January with the then unquestioned best fighter in the World Jon Jones was undefeated in his two divisions of fight experience. Cormier entered the Jones fight after running through the heavyweight division in impressive fashion. Larger men did not nor will not threaten Cormier for as a matter of fact he trains with the current Heavyweight Champion of the World in Cain Velasquez. At 205 Cormier has impressed and dominated all those he has faced. Even in the fight with Jones he was never hurt and fought frenetically for a full five rounds something Johnson has yet to experience or display in his fighting career. Cormier has dynamic defense, can strike effectively and make no mistake about the fact that he will get Johnson to the mat for a maul. We see this one being exciting for the first seven plus minutes until Cormier allows the more muscular man to get ‘all swole up’ and begin to slow way down. From there we see Daniel dominating this fight from the floor and taking Johnson to a most uncomfortable place, a place he has not been for a while and a place he wants not to be. Dan Cormier is a world class wrestler and a world class mixed martial artist. We believe he has the mental tools and physical abilities to walk away from this fight with the undisputed Light Heavyweight Championship.
Cormier +100 (don’t be shy)
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*We quote Mr. Reed Kuhn Author of Fightnomics from a Twitter entry of his dated 5-21-15.
