Betting Slumps
We hear the stories of success in sports betting all the time; miraculous covers, circus odds parlays that somehow connect, massive futures that cash…but there is in fact another side to sports betting. For every winning streak or heater in this business there’s always someone on the other side going through a nasty slump. Losing skids are inevitable, they come with the territory. While it’s not the most heart warming topic to discuss I felt it was apropos to speak from first hand experience about some techniques I’ve employed in the past to get me through rough patches. Ironically enough, this blog will serve as affirmation while I struggle through a slump of my own right now.
Here are 5 things to think about until the worm turns…
Scale down your unit size
This idea should seem straight forward and logical however you’d be surprised at how many recreational bettors don’t even consider this possibility. I understand the thought process; “my unit is $50 and if I scale back to $25 and suddenly get hot it will take me twice as long to recoup my losses.” It’s funny how a gambler’s brain works because while this can be true the other potential scenario is that when a losing skid persists you’ll be damn glad you took your foot off the gas. Kelly Criterion is a concept every bettor should understand as well helpful in determining an optimal size of a series of bets although I’m realistic when it comes to employing Kelly to the letter of the law. Most casual gamblers don’t have a clearly defined bankroll so reassessing correct stake factor on a daily basis can be a challenge. Besides, good luck calling in a bet for $23.26 instead of $25 if you still use an old fashioned bookmaker. When winners start to come in that’s when it’s time to take the bet size back to your normal levels . I don’t care how long you’ve been in this business every bettor goes through rough patches and maintaining sound money management during these stretches allows you to stay in the game longer.
Cut back on volume
I’m a low volume player to begin with so cutting back my bets during a cold spell becomes quite a challenge. Through March 4th I’d made a grand total of 173 bets this calendar year, an average of less than 3 per day. Some folks I know in this business will make 173 bets in a calendar week and win long term proving there’s multiple ways to skin a cat. When things are rough I make even fewer bets, trying to isolate only the wagers that would normally be 2 unit plays in my typical betting structure. There will be people out there (and some reading this article) that ascribe the only way to get out of a betting slump is to bet your way through it but that’s dangerous for those with limited financial means. Don’t be afraid to scale back when reads aren’t clicking. Remember, there’s always another full slate of games tomorrow worth a share of your wagering wallet.
It’s ok to take a day or days off
Most of you reading this article aren’t professionals. You have a wife or girlfriend, family, a job (I hope), or school to worry about first and foremost. Rather than press or chase losses take a mental health day to regain your wits. I know this will be revolutionary analysis but there’s more to life than just finding winners. Too many times people treat a day off like the bane of their existence. Don’t be that junkie requiring a daily action fix; you’ll be pleasantly surprised how even 24 hours without sweating a game can leave you refreshed and refocused to dive back into things with renewed vigor.
Don’t beat yourself up for passing winners
Guess what, there are an abundance of games to bet across all sports each week. I’m pretty sure each of those lined contests will have a winner or loser. Crossing a lean off your card is always a challenge and I’m well aware it stings when a game you pass on wins while the one you bet doesn’t. Facts are facts; this won’t just happen to you once, twice, or 100 times if you keep at this hobby for any length of time. Instead of getting angry go back and review the games you passed trying to figure out what about them scared you off in the 23rd hour. Honestly the irony in this is we only seem to remember winning leans we passed, not the horrific 20 point landmines we were able to sidestep thanks to a more conservative approach.
Stay off of twitter
This one may crack a few people up but I’m dead serious this could be the most important advice I can offer. In the age of social media when you follow a large cross section of sports handicappers SOMEONE is going to have a winning day. Looking at their card will only frustrate you further creating the question why didn’t I see the same things they did? Whether it’s a professional, a pick seller, or a casual bettor there will be a poster bragging about his 17-0 night. This isn’t good for your state of mind while you try to regain focus and come back at the craft refreshed and “enlightened.” Keep in mind most bettors won’t win long term meaning those bragging tonight might not be carrying the same tune tomorrow..or the day after.
