Superfluous Nonsense
Sports journalists operate in shades of grey. It’s an unspoken truth within the industry during the social media era that being right (or accurate) isn’t nearly as important as being first. Opinions dominate the space and that’s why we choose to read our favorite columnists each week, appreciating the unique lens through which they view the game. Earlier Tuesday I stumbled on an article (and was also sent to me by countless people) that blew the oddsmaking process entirely out of proportion. While the words sound harsh, I’ve grown critical of folks covering the gambling industry that don’t exactly understand that of which they write (exactly how I’d expect everyone to feel if I started writing about quantum physics).
Let’s start with the headline and go from there…
LAS VEGAS SCREWED UP THE POINT SPREAD FOR THE SUPER BOWL – AND IT COULD COST MILLIONS
Ah yes, the grandiose proclamation that a point spread has been messed up by oddsmakers on the single most important game to the entire industry here in town. Before we come to a final decision let’s see how the number moves between now and next Sunday.
The article continues…
With 12 days to go before the Super Bowl, there is no favorite to win the big game. But it didn’t start out that way, and that could spell disaster for Las Vegas sportsbooks.
Shortly after the New England Patriots completed their destruction of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game, the 2015 Super Bowl opened with the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5- or 3-point favorites, depending on where you looked.
However, in the first 24 hours of betting, the line fell all the way to a pick ’em (no favorite), a surprisingly big move for a point spread and a rare miss by Las Vegas.
Click here to read the full article
This is where it’s important to get details straight: Most sportsbooks opened Seattle the favorite on the early line. The consensus before the Patriots put the finishing touches on their annihilation of the Colts was Seattle was -2/-2.5 for the big game.
#SUPERBOWL ODDS OPEN: #Patriots @ +2 1.98 – #Seahawks -2 1.92 http://t.co/bluu3dyXMf
— Pinnacle Sports (@PinnacleSports) January 19, 2015
Once the game went final (and no doubt aided by some early Patriots money), oddsmakers both offshore and in Vegas realized perception on the two teams had drastically changed leading them to expect an initial wave of Patriots money. The public just witnessed New England throttle Andrew Luck while Seattle needed to overcome live odds of 30-1 to slip by the Packers.
Now this is where the story really starts to go off the tracks. I won’t blame Cork Gaines if he doesn’t have historical perspective on line movement or a deeper understanding how of sports betting works for a game of this magnitude. This was actually the exact same scenario we saw last year where Seattle opened short chalk against Denver. In the first 24 hours of betting Denver went from short dog to short fav, a role in which they’d remain all the way until kickoff. To call this a “million dollar mistake” is shock journalism, aimed at getting clicks. MGM definitely took a 6 figure bet but considering they’ll do substantially more in handle for the game, seasoned oddsmakers will hardly be scared by a wager representing less than .5% of their overall Super Bowl volume.
Sharp bettors always look to gain an edge whenever possible. The initial bet definitely could have come from a sharp bettor looking to get ahead of the Patriot’s money bound to enter the market. Now this is where the plot thickens: nobody knows if this is the true position the bettor is looking to take on the game because there’s plenty of time until kickoff allowing him to come easily over the top with a bigger bet on the other side at a better price. Over the next two weeks groups will steer the line a variety of ways knowing it takes a hell of a lot less money to move the price now then what it will take 24 hours before kickoff.
Here’s more food for thought: I spoke to Jeff Sherman, veteran oddsmaker at Westgate Superbook, and he said that 85% of his book’s betting handle will come in the week leading up to the game with 35% in the final 24 hours. Millions you say because Vegas made a mistake in the first 24 hours? Lets pump the brakes a bit…
One of the last things I wanted to address is Bill Simmons quote (known Patriots fan) taken from his podcast: “Vegas really screwed up with that line and that it is rare for them to miss by that many points.” I’m not sure this could be further from the truth knowing the majority of books never used the key number of 3 on their open. Just 120 minutes of football doesn’t create a 3 point swing in power ratings meaning the main thing that changed is public perception. Injuries will indeed be a big story for Seattle leading up to the game and New England is a few steps above the 2013 Broncos but implying oddsmakers made a flat out mistake on this game is a bit over blown. Something tells me history may end up repeating itself and the 80% of folks viewing a bet on the Patriots as free money may soon be separated from their hard earned cash.
