UEFA Betting Guide
UEFA Champions League play is Europe’s premier club soccer competition where the best sides on the continent are invited to participate in the yearly event. Competition starts with three qualifying rounds followed by a play-off round before the final 8 groups of 4 teams are determined.
In pool play teams play a home and home with each other where the top two teams in each group advance to the knockout stage. During the knockout phase the 16 advancing teams are drawn against an opponent (8 games in total) to determine a winner over two “legs” (a game at home, and a game away).
Winners during the knockout phase are determined by the aggregate score of their two games. If there is a tie, the team that scores the most away goals advances. If the tiebreaker still doesn’t separate the teams then the second leg will also include extra time (and possibly a penalty shootout) until a winner has been determined.
The remaining two teams play in the final, a one game championship at a pre-determined neutral venue that will take place in Munich this year.
Teams earn prize money over the course of the tournament for each win, draw, and advancement through the various stages. The eventual winner of the final can expect to accrue $65 million (50 million Euros) in prize money.
Given the lucrative nature of this tournament, the Knockout Phase becomes strategic and often very defensive. Every goal is crucial but those scored on enemy turf become even more valuable in this stage of the tournament.
Any team that scores early in the first leg may clamp down defensively to prevent any chance their opponent has of scoring since they’ve gained a huge advantage. If the away team has scored early you can usually expect the home team to go “all-out attack” in the hope of getting a goal as they have little to lose but bettors beware, they could concede a second with this approach. If the home team scores early rest assured a fairly dull rest of game will ensue (unless that team is Barcelona because they don’t adhere to these normal expectations). Be prepared for road teams to sit back in a defensive shell since they’re perfectly content to grind out a 0-0 tie in an effort to protect their record, yes it’s an under bettors ideal scenario.
The second leg becomes the more enjoyable game to watch assuming the prospect for advancement is still within grasp of both teams. Generally speaking the home team in the second leg will be the attacking side since they have the crowd support and are normally chasing the result.
Here is the draw for this year’s round of 16 and a few nuggets every soccer handicapper needs to know:
Bayer Leverkusen v Barcelona
Bayer Leverkusen is currently 6th in the German Bundesliga and have left themselves with some work to do if they want to match last year’s 2nd place finish in their domestic competition. In the group stage of the Champions League they finished 2nd behind Chelsea and ahead of third place Valencia. Leverkusen’s best result in club history was a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid in the Champions league final back in 2002 and given their match-up with Barcelona no one expects much this year.
Barcelona enters the round of 16 as clear cut favorites but then again what international soccer competition out there includes Barcelona without making them the prohibitive chalk? The four time champions of Europe cruised through the group stage to top Group H ahead of AC Milan and sit 2nd in La Liga behind only Real Madrid. The player to watch is the world’s best creator Lionel Messi who just took home another player of the year award. Amazingly he is still only 24 years old and continues to dominate the Champions League with 6 goals already and a tally that will obviously increase. It is worth noting that David Villa will miss the rest of the season with a nasty broken leg and the club will apparently not be looking to bring in a replacement during the allotted January transfer window.
Bayer did rely on their home form in the group stage and will need to win in the first leg here but may need to counter attack as Barcelona is creative and attacking on offense. This could be one of the more interesting games when it comes to the first leg so don’t expect a 0-0 tie between these teams.
Lyon v APOEL
Lyon is currently 4th in the French Ligue 1 and are 8 points from the top but unlike La Liga, the French league is known for its highly competitive balance. The race for the 2nd spot in Group D was hotly contested with Lyon notching a 7-1 win on the final match-day while Ajax lost 3-0 creating the improbable end result. In 2009-10, Lyon reached the semi-finals of the Champions League for the first time but this year aren’t considered among the favorites to win the prestigious title.
APOEL made history by qualifying for the knockout stages of the Champions Leagues as the first Cypriot team ever to do so but they didn’t just squeak by in qualification, they won their group. That being said, Group G clearly was the weakest of all the groups and APOEL is currently 4th in their domestic league but only 4 points off the leaders Omonia Nicosia.
Lyon have a solid home record at this stage of the competition (4W-3D-1L) and will be determined to convert their superior European experience over APOEL into a quarter final appearance, which would help ease the clubs financial woes. All fairy tales must end at some stage right?
Zenit St. Petersburg v Benfica
Zenit finished 2nd in Group G just behind APOEL and are currently clear on top of the Russian Premier League. Much like APOEL, this is the first time Zenit have made it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League so this is foreign territory.
Zenit will take on Benfica who topped Group C with an improbable result considering their strong effort sent group favorite Manchester United packing long before soccer prognosticators believed possible. Benfica is currently on top of the Portuguese First Division with a 2 point lead on Porto in 2nd. Benfica has won the Champions League twice although it was known as the European Cup when they did so way back in the 60’s. The man you want to keep an eye out for here is Nicolás Gaitán. Gaitan is a real up and coming star who tops the charts in assists and really pulls the strings in the Benfica midfield.
The Russian Premier League started its four month break in November and Zenit will not play another league game until March. Whilst they play the first leg at home in likely freezing conditions, the advantage must surely be with Benfica who has been playing regular competitive games and should be in top form compared to their Russian competitor.
AC Milan v Arsenal
AC Milan advanced through Group H along with Barcelona and was never threatened in the group easily securing the 2nd spot. AC Milan is battling hard domestically in what has become a highly competitive season in Serie A as they currently sit 2nd only 1 point behind leader Juventus. The 7 time winners know what it takes to win Europe’s top club competition and provide a real threat to this year’s prestigious title
Arsenal impressed in their Group F performances and could even afford a poor final day defeat whilst still wining the group. After a pathetic start to their Premier League season, the Gunners are back on track and in 5th position largely due to the red hot Robin van Persie. The best result in their club’s history in the Champions League was a loss in the 2005-06 final to Barcelona.
Milan will no doubt start favourites for the first leg at home but consider that in their last three appearances in the Champions League they have lost the home leg in the round of 16 to an English opponent. Each time they ended up losing the tie too, including to Arsenal in 2009.
CSKA Moscow v Real Madrid
A dramatic late winner for CSKA Moscow at Inter Milan’s San Siro was enough to snatch the 2nd spot in Group B behind Inter. CSKA is currently 2nd behind Zenit in the Russian Premier League and are no strangers to deep advancement in UEFA as they made it all the way through to the quarter finals of the Champions League last season.
However, CSKA comes up against the Spanish juggernaut Real Madrid and clearly don’t have the same caliber of talent on their roster. Real won all 6 games to comfortably finish 1st in Group D while continuing their form in La Liga that has them sitting atop the league table. Real has a super talented squad with expectations of winning the Champions League for the 10th time this year. Cristiano Ronaldo is the obvious star but don’t overlook the impact José Callejón can have if given a chance on Europe’s biggest stage.
CSKA’s away win at Inter puts them in good stead for this tie, however like Zenit, the Winter break ensured they have not played a competitive match since November. Real is one of the world’s best teams and I’d be shocked if CSKA finds a way to beat the Spaniards.
Napoli v Chelsea
Napoli did just enough in Group A to finish behind Bayern Munich and ahead of Manchester City to steal a bid into the knockout phase. Although their European exploits have taken a toll on their domestic results, currently 6th in the Serie A, you can expect them to place tremendous emphasis on their Champions League title aspirations. This is the first time for Napoli through to this stage of the competition despite the great years they had with Maradona leading the club.
Chelsea is the 2nd of the English teams through to the round of 16 and they did so by winning Group E. Currently 4th in the Premier League, the best result for Chelsea in the Champions League was when they finished runners up in 2007-08. If they are to match that feat this season they will really need the Spaniard Juan Mata to dominate down the wings and provide some quality chances for Drogba and Torres up front.
Chelsea prefers a defense first approach and have recently solidified their back line with the signing of Gary Cahill while Napoli hails from the Serie A which traditionally breeds technically sound and low scoring sides. All of these tendencies suggest a hard fought and low scoring tie in the first leg.
FC Basel v Bayern Munich
After a dramatic win over Manchester United on the last day of qualifying, Basel secured the 2nd spot in Group C eliminating the EPL giant. Basel is well clear at home in the Swiss Super League and will need to continue their good form if they want to match their previous best finish of a birth in the quarter finals.
Bayern Munich had no such questions surrounding their entry into this phase; winning Group A while maintaining their stronghold on the German Bundesliga. The 4 time European Champion has a solid chance to dethrone the two Spanish giants in this year’s competition. Mario Gomez is the key cog up front leading the goal scoring barrage both domestically and in this competition with his goal scoring prowess matched only by the talents of the elite Lionel Messi.
Basel will likely start underdog for this tie, but we might get an early signal of their intent with a number of other clubs showing interest in their young star Xherdan Shaqiri. If Basel decides to sell Shaqiri in the January transfer window, are they effectively waving the white flag?
Marseille v Inter Milan
Marseille made it through to the final 16 by finishing 2nd in Group F but only after scoring 2 very late goals in the 23rd hour. They currently sit 6th in France and will have a hard time advancing through this phase let alone winning the Champions League this year, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 1993.
Inter Milan has been crowned victor of the Champions League 3 times and showed enough in winning Group B to suggest there’s a chance this could be the 4th time they’re anointed European club soccer’s preeminent side. Although Group B probably lacked competitive balance, Inter’s current standing in 5th domestically may serve as the motivation they need to make for a live underdog in the tournament.
Amazingly both of these teams relied on their away form in the group stage picking up only 3 points at home and 7 points on their travels. If this trend continues, the advantage goes to Inter in the first leg and subsequently the tie.
