What We’ve Learned
The first set of group stage games is officially in the books. Somehow, by virtue of friendly scheduling Brazil & Mexico were even able to play their second fixture yesterday before Russia & South Korea started the tournament. As a handicapper it’s always important to assess what you’ve learned (even from a small sample size) separating fact from fiction in order to capitalize on oddsmaker over reaction and market perception. Here are 4 things I learned that can help all of us profit handsomely as the tournament moves forward.
Overs were an ATM…it won’t continue
One thing we know is that bettors love to ride a trend into the ground especially betting games over the total. It’s hard to argue with the success firing overs yielded during the first set of group games. Hopefully you were able to capitalize on the 12-3-1 run to start the tournament if banking on offense is your chosen pursuit. The 49 goals scored in the first set of matches is a World Cup Record. Wait for it… I’m here to rain on the parade by saying that won’t persist through the 2nd game in the group stage. Why you ask? All of the totals have been adjusted up from 2 to 2.5 with a smattering of 3’s entering the market. Going over 3 is a tall order at this level and has actually been the number most of these games landed on making for a push, not a win. Bookmakers are keen to adjustments, expect to pay a premium going over inflated prices during the second round of group stage games.
Gambling takeaway: Overs won’t hit at a 80% clip for the entire tournament. Regression is imminent: identify the right opportunities to take advantage of market adjustment allowing you to capitalize on inflated totals.
Favorites will falter
So much of sports betting is recognizing opportunity created by price. The pointspread/moneyline is the ultimate equalizer preventing you from just “betting the better team” all the time to make money. Over the course of an international competition like this played at such a high level, the draw will definitely become relevant as we saw on Tuesday. I know it took 12 matches before we saw our first tie, the longest such streak at a World Cup since 1930, but that will change. Look for live dogs because they’ll begin to bite as the stakes climb and every national team is desperate for a result of any kind.
Gambling takeaway: Choose wisely when looking to back a heavy chalk or lay goals. Unless goal differential factors into the equation, getting 3 points is the only thing teams will care about since style points don’t help their cause.
Don’t call it a comeback
There have been 6 so far this tourney…which doesn’t feel like a lot but when you consider there were only 4 in the entire 2010 tournament, you understand how rare they typically are at the World Cup. Early deficits have created dream scenarios for live bettors looking to avoid expensive pre match prices by waiting patiently to grab a juicy number. Patience has been a virtue…I’m just skeptical it continues
Gambling takeaway: Waiting to bet the elite sides via live wagering can often save you hefty juice. However, don’t look to back teams that find themselves in a 1-0 deficit regularly even if the price appears too good to pass up because as the tournament progresses you won’t see nearly as many blown leads…unless the LA Kings field a roster.
Love our theft
I know everyone will call me a hater, unpatriotic, communist, etc but the reality of the first fixture for Team USA was a pedestrian effort bookended by 2 heroic individual runs allowing us to steal 3 points. Possession up front was poor once Jozy Altidore left the game, placing a premium on any scoring chance the side might muster moving forward. Michael Bradley has to be better controlling the diamond against elite level competition. The effort was promising in regards to advancement implications and what it meant to US soccer fans off the pitch. The telecast broke records for ESPN soccer coverage meaning the national intrigue that could come from our successes may capture the attention of even a casual observer
Gambling takeaway: Team USA will be hard pressed to muster offense without Jozy Altidore. Betting their team totals under will value although grabbing them +1 vs Portugal with reasonable juice for this Sunday’s fixture is a bet that clearly has me intrigued.
