Eye on Brazil
World Cup Berths On The Line
Once again, the world’s best players have left their clubs and joined their national squads, but this time there is a more on the line. Over the next two weeks, teams that failed to qualify outright for the World Cup will engage in two-leg playoffs to determine who the lucky countries will be that get to travel to Brazil this coming summer. For those of you not familiar with the two-leg playoff system used in different soccer competitions, it provides an extra betting option. Under this system, two games are played between the competitors, one at each team’s home stadium. The team that advances to the World Cup is the one who scores the most goals over the two legs, and if both are tied after 180 minutes of play, road goals is the tiebreaker used. If the tiebreaker can’t break the tie, the teams will play two periods of extra time, and if there is still dreadlock after those thirty minutes, the dreaded plenty kicks will determine who is going to Brazil. Thus, before the first game is played you can bet not only the usual wagers offered on every soccer game, but can also make a wager on the team to advance from the two-leg playoff. With that explanation out of the way, let’s get into some of these matchups.
Sweden vs. Portugal
First Leg in Portugal, 11/15 2:45 PM EST
Second Leg in Sweden, 11/19 2:45 PM EST
When these two teams were drawn against one another, one thought crossed every soccer fan’s mind: Cristiano Ronaldo or Zlatan Ibrahimovich will miss the World Cup. Indeed, it is a shame that one of these two will miss the tournament in Brazil, as they are arguably two of the five best players in the world. On the other hand, that storyline makes this the most anticipated UEFA playoff of the four, and will likely be the one with the most betting action thanks to the marquee players involved. Portugal is the favorite to advance, hovering around -180, with Sweden playing the role of the underdog at +150. The disparity in the numbers is likely attributable to Portugal’s success in their playoff in 2010 World Cup qualifying and the fact that the public loves Cristiano Ronaldo. That being said, these two teams are dead even in my mind. Portugal may have the more well-known players with Nani, Coentrao, and Pepe all in the roster, but this squad disappointed massively in group play. Given a very mediocre group, Portugal finished second behind a very average Russian squad after drawing against minnows Israel (twice) and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, everyone knew Sweden wasn’t going to finish ahead of Germany in its group, but nobody can forget the epic 4-4 draw where Sweden came back from a 4-0 deficit in Berlin. Though it doesn’t have the big names throughout its squad like Portugal, the Swedes weren’t the unit who underwhelmed in group play, and they have they all-important second-leg at home. Given that advantage and a line disparity not based on this round of qualifiers, there can only be one play here.
The Pick: Sweden +150 to advance to World Cup
Greece vs. Romania
First Leg in Greece, 11/15 2:45 PM EST
Second Leg in Romania, 11/19 2:45 PM EST
This playoff is about as close as you can get to a dead heat in a two-leg playoff, with Greece opening up as a slight favorite at -135 to advance. Like Sweden, Romania’s best shot at getting to the World Cup was always going to be through a playoff, as they were drawn in a group with the 2010 World Cup runner-up, the Netherlands. Still, the Romanians overcame two other quality squads in Hungary and Turkey to book their ticket to the playoffs. Greece, on the other hand, were a bit unlucky to finish second in their group, as a 68th minute goal for Bosnia Herzegovina against Latvia in the final game of group play kept the Greeks from winning the group due to goal differential. With neither side having a clear advantage over the two legs as a whole, the better option here seems to play the legs individually, and there are some very obvious trends pertaining to Greek home games. Over the course of group play, Greece kept a clean sheet in every contest on home soil, thanks to a stout back line including Dortmund defender Sokratis Papastathopoulos (good luck saying that one). They won four out of those five, and every game finished under the total of two goals. Romania did concede six goals in five away group matches, but that statistic is a bit misleading as four of the goals came from the superior Dutch side. Given that the Greeks only managed 12 goals in 10 group games, all signs point to the first leg being a low-scoring affair, in which the Greeks have the home advantage.
The Picks: Greece (+107) to win First Leg, Under 2 Goals (-115)
France vs. Ukraine
First Leg in Ukraine, 11/15 2:45 EST
Second Leg in France, 11/19 2:45 EST
The French squad is the prohibitive favorite here, coming in at -295 to win the playoff, and rightfully so. Had France not been drawn in the smaller, five-team Group I containing World Cup champion Spain, they likely would have already booked their tickets to Brazil given the quality throughout their squad. Ukraine do have some great players in Andriy Yarmolenko and Yevhen Konopolyanka, but they do not have the depth throughout their team to compete with Ribery, Benzema, Pogba, Sagna, etc. over two legs. With the first leg line opening as a PK, it’s hard to find any value due to the countervailing factors. France has the better team, but Ukraine has the home field advantage, and will be desperate to get a result here due to the second leg being in France. It seems wiser here to sit this one out and wait for the second leg to make a play.
The Pick: Pass
Croatia vs. Iceland
First Leg in Iceland, 11/15 2:45 EST
Second Leg in Croatia, 11/19 2:45 EST
Here is where we find the biggest odds differential in the four UEFA playoffs, with Croatia as a giant -440 favorite to defeat Iceland over the two legs. At the current -440, Croatia’s probability of advancing should be 81.4%. If we were solely looking at the names in the squad, those would be valid numbers. Croatia has individual quality throughout with the likes of Luka Modric, Mario Mandzukic, Eduardo, and Darijo Srna. Yet as everyone knows, names on a roster don’t tell the whole story. Croatia was horrible at the end of group play, failing to get a win in its last four matches, and losing three outright. Throw in the fact that Croatia has not won a home game since February, and that their coach “resigned” following the final group game. This team seems to be in as much disarray as our unfriendly neighbors to the south who don’t deserve a playoff against New Zealand. Iceland may not have as many big names as Croatia, but they do have Tottenham Hotspur man Gylfi Sigurdsson, and they ended group play by going unbeaten in their last five games. Throw in an opening game in Reykjavik, Iceland that will be played in freezing cold, rain, and wind that could easily leave Croatia reeling going into the return leg, and it is apparent that Iceland has a much better chance at advancing than the odds above would indicate. Give me the fighting underdog here, as it looks to become the smallest country to ever qualify for the World Cup.
The Picks: Iceland +.5 (-109) in First Leg, Iceland +330 to advance to Brazil
Other Friendly
Belgium vs. Colombia
11/14 Brussels, Belgium 3:00 EST
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Both of these teams will be seeded teams in Pot 1 for the World Cup and if the game was played in South America, I might be writing this one from a different angle. Instead, Colombia and its star striker Radamel Falcao are travelling to Belgium to face a much deeper team on its home turf, where it has not lost since September 3rd, 2010. Hazard, Benteke, Witsel and Co. will look to make a statement here against a team they may see in the knockout rounds in Brazil. The fact that this is merely a friendly may be cause for concern, but Belgium’s home record cannot be ignored.
The Pick: Belgium -.5 (+104)
