Retrospective Analysis
After a pulsating 2013 NBA Finals series between the Heat and Spurs, in an exclusive inside look, Pinnacle Sports’ lead NBA trader takes an in-depth look back at the odds movement over the seven games and explains what may have influenced them, essential insight for any NBA bettor. Desperation a key factor in odds movement One of the key factors affecting the spread in the NBA Finals was the level of desperation of a team, rather than a perceived momentum for the team that had previously won.
A key factor affecting the spread was desperation. This was strongly demonstrated before Game 4, when Miami were in a desperate situation (2-1 down, playing in San Antonio and set to stay there for Game 5). The Heat needed to win, and coupled with their small perceived skill advantage over the Spurs, were set as 1-point favourites. Had Miami been in less of a desperate position, a different handicap could have been set.
The exception to this “desperation” advantage was in Game 5, where despite having evened the series, Miami were roughly the same 1-point favourite as they were going into the need-to-win Game 4.
In fact, if desperation were to favour anyone, it would be the Spurs, as Game 5 was their last shot at home. Instead, having leveled the series, public confidence in Miami’s Big Three – Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade – may have returned to shape that market.
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Todd’s Take: Understanding where an oddsmaker is coming from when he sets a number is of huge value to bettors. Everyone quantifies factors differently from the very real impacts of home court to the more intangible factors like desperation and motivation. This is where the best handicappers in the world gain their edge; looking to capitalize on situational analysis and intangibles they don’t feel are weighted heavily enough in the betting number. While the article focuses mainly on the ebbs and flows of the recently completed NBA finals, the lessons the traders offer can be readily applied to events moving forward to cultivate a new thought process every handicapper has yet to master.
