Seeking value: Wildcard weekend in the AFC
Is it Tebow time again? Value may finally exist betting the free falling Broncos
Value comes in different forms when you handicap sports. Bettors and bookmakers attack post season point spreads with different mindsets and agendas especially when you consider the large swell of public money entering the market during the playoffs.
Pittsburgh @ Denver
Line: Pittsburgh -7.5, O/U 35
I’m beginning to wonder if the Steelers actually have anyone on their 55 man roster that’s healthy right now. Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year with a torn acl and Ryan Clarke is expected to miss with complications arising from his blood condition in the Rocky mountain air. Say what you want about the toughness displayed by Big Ben every week but he hasn’t been the same QB since suffering his high ankle sprain and one of the league’s most dynamic passing offenses for much of the year has been grounded recently. The argument that Pittsburgh shelved some of its playbook recently is plausible however the bottom line is the team has only scored 57 pts in their last four games for an avg of 14.25 PPG which includes a 27 pt explosion vs defensive juggernaut St Louis. Pittsburgh has been installed as a road favorite of 7 or more 3 times this season and they’re 0-3 ATS in those games. Denver enters the playoffs as losers of 3 straight, failing to cover the number in each of their last 4 contests. Safe to say the honeymoon stage is officially over for Tim Tebow but as the limelight begins to fade point spread value becomes real. Keep in mind the Steelers were -7 yesterday at Cleveland and now lay -7.5 against Denver despite their own offensive woes. I won’t sugarcoat the fact the Broncos’ offense is putrid but that’s also why they’re over a TD dog in their own building. From a value standpoint I think you make a strong case for Team Tebow as a home underdog since no more than a few short weeks ago this number would have been between -4.5 to -6.
Cincinnati @ Houston
Line: Texans -3, O/U39
The 100 million dollar question the general public wants to know is who will start at QB for the Texans? From a bookmaking perspective it doesn’t really matter to me since TJ Yates and Jake Delhomme are just caretakers for the zone run game that’s paved the way for the Texans first ever playoff appearance birth. Houston limps into the playoffs losers of 3 straight (1-2 ATS) but don’t think for a second that’s not being reflected in the opening number. People quickly forget these 2 teams met on December 11 and Houston went into Cincinnati and escaped with a 20-19 last minute comeback. QB experience could favor the Texans in this game if Delhomme starts since he did lead the Panthers to the NFL title game a few years ago (how quickly we forget). The Bengals didn’t exactly finish the year with their hair on fire either as far as bettors were concerned compiling a 1-5-2 ATS mark in their L8 under rookie QB Andy Dalton. What you’re seeing in this line is home field advantage and I believe the price is right where it needs to be for great 2 way action. If you see the price tick up to 3.5, the Bengal side should be considered a value play meanwhile if the line dips to 2.5 the same thought process applies to the Texans.
