Masked Men
by Steve Caruso (follow him on twitter @RusoCaruso)
When it comes to betting baseball, I think a lot of guys (including seasoned veterans) who bet other sports find it overwhelming at times. Baseball is such a numbers driven sport it’s easy to get bogged down and hung up on misleading stats that don’t correlate to handicapping success. You also need to factor in the translation from point spread to run line to moneyline and you have a headache waiting to happen for a lot of people. Personally, I think baseball can provide gifts throughout the year when bookmakers shift focus away from the diamond to other more heavily bet sports.
Now, the way MLB lines are set up is with a heavy emphasis on who’s starting (pitching) for each team. We know everyone has their own method on what metrics are key in handicapping, but usually what you’ll find is everyone does things a little bit differently. In my opinion if you’re looking for something concrete, something often objective in a subjective sport to factor into your handicapping research then look no further than Umpire Strike %’s.
Before you dispute my thesis think of a time when your favorite team (or any other team) you had money on lost a game because of an umpire, and no Buccos fans I’m not talking about the infamous Jerry Meals incident at Turner Field. Now that I’ve made your blood start to boil thinking about umpires lets think why we get so heated: Say it with me now, “they’re masked men with power to influence every game.” Officials are very instrumental to any sporting event and I’m not trying to bash them for making mistakes but the reality is we need every edge we can find as handicappers. I bring this up to illustrate they have a hand in how every game plays out. Just like pitchers have a game plan and overall philosophy to their pitching style, so do umpires. Each man in blue has his OWN strike zone that the game goes through. It’s their court, except they are not only the judge but jury and executioner as well. It’s imperative to know whose strike zone you’re investing in every time you bet a total.
Normally we shouldn’t know the names of our officials in sports however baseball is a different animal. Dana DeMuth, Ed Rapuano, Joe West, recognize any of these names? Well if you’re serious about betting totals you should know each and every one of them. These 3 umps called strikes on an average of about 62.6% last season, near the lowest in the majors. As a result their combined O/U record last year was 69-29. Blindly taking the over when these 3 umpires were behind the plate in their respective games produced a win rate of 70%, yes 70%. Now consider the fact that these guys are MLB household names and this history I’m showing you is not new instead a part of today’s line. If you take this angle a step further and factor in the wind and other variables on top of that, you’ll be able to cut down on some risky plays and find ways to improve your results.
When it comes to taking totals based heavily on umpire numbers, the general rule of thumb is ‘over’ umpires are going to call strikes at a rate of about 61% – 62%. The ‘unders’ umpires are going to call strikes 63% – 64% of the time. Smaller strike zone = longer day for pitchers. Bigger zone = shooting fish in a barrel for some. I’ve included a table from 2011 to look at as a reference point for strike % and O/U records.
After reviewing the table you can see knowing whose behind the plate gives you a much better idea of how the game might play out. It makes zero sense not to spend at least 5 minutes checking umpires before making your investment. If you’re still not convinced when new series lines come out, record them on your end. Then once umpire assignments are announced and one of the guys with a bigger record is behind the dish check which way the line moves and I guarantee they’ll move according to their historical performance. Keep in mind this is only ONE part of the handicapping equation; it is a guide to how the game should be played most days. Every stadium is unique so every day brings different weather patterns and teams have different strengths, weaknesses, issues, and motivations. We look at whose behind the plate to know what today’s strike zone will look like and beyond that, we always need to hope our team’s perform up to our expectations.
