The joy of the chase
Written by Andrew Choe (follow him on twitter @choe20)
Many of us have fallen victim of going through forums and locating threads on “systems” that are guaranteed to turn a substantial profit without any work involved. The majority (if not all of them) of them never work and if they do their success is fleeting, creating short-term profit that eventually subsides. However, I have always found systems intriguing as a betting concept, not because I’m a lazy gambler and looking to make a quick buck, but rather because I enjoy the different perspectives, angles, and patterns that go into creating a system. This article has no intentions of trying to persuade you to give in to testing this system or bet it with your own bankroll instead it’s written to better illustrate and explain how a system can work as a guideline on top of handicapping and filtering to create long-term success.
I stumbled on a system for MLB in a posting forum called “The RPI Chase”, created by user ‘bettor2win’. The premise is simple in that you bet a team to avoid a sweep in a series based on the outcome of the RPI (Relative Power Index). Because the goal is to get just one win, you keep chasing the losses on top of what you wagered originally to turn a unit profit.
RPI (relative power index) is a mathematical formula derived from Bill James’ Pythagorean theorem of baseball. The formula was designed to relate a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to its win-loss record.
The RPI Chase System:
1. If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
2. If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.
FILTERS:
1. Using your own handicapping knowledge, create a “Watch List” of teams that haven’t been performing well or lower RPI teams that have been gaining momentum.
2. Look at current win/loss streaks.
3. Head-to-head historic records; looking at their win/loss record and times they’ve swept each other.
4. Injuries.
A ‘system’ should be automatic, hence why a lot of gamblers give into it because its simply done at the press of a button with no analysis involved. Once someone starts to handicap, it’s no longer a system anymore since returns would not be the same since everyone’s bias will yield different results. This isn’t the case with this particular system. In fact, I find that using the RPI as a starting guideline can be beneficial throughout the course of a season to traditional handicappers as well. The key factor here is proper money management and dealing with your bankroll as percentages and not raw dollars.
Chases are always discouraged as it can easily put you in a hole in a matter of a few losses. That’s why the most important aspect of using a chase system in a series is proper money management. In my opinion, I would highly recommend risking no more than 3% of your bankroll on any single chase. Even then the results can add up quickly so discipline is the key here as you need to factor in the mental aspect of handling a loss. Set a realistic goal on what kind of return on investment you’re looking for by the end of the season but understand it doesn’t come risk free. That way, by managing your bankroll through percentages of ROI, it can help from being trigger-happy and jumping on too many games or chasing losses that have already put a dent into your bankroll. What I also do that’s different from the series is playing chases depending on match up situation. For example, if a team meets the RPI and filters, but the match up doesn’t seem good (i.e. pitchers), you can take the first game off and if they lose, chase them for the last 2 games of the series.
Make note as well that these games played are at high juice lines and each series loss can be anywhere from 10-15 wins combined. If you can utilize the RPI as a guideline to your handicapping and manage your bankroll properly, expect positive returns by the end of each season.
