Written by Emile Avanessian (follow him on twitter for more NBA insight @hardwoodhype)

In April 2009, I was extremely “bullish on the Bulls” in their opening-round series against the defending world champion Boston Celtics and LOVED (from the Bulls’ perspective) any matchup involving Derrick Rose. Before Game 1 in Boston, having gotten down on the Bulls in every way possible (money line, teaser and spread, which I believe was +8.5), I still felt I’d not thrown enough support behind D-Rose. As much fun as they are (and you’ve not lived until you’ve been emotionally invested in Tony Scheffler’s third target on a Monday night), I’d never been a big believer in proposition bets as a means to consistent profitability. However, wanting to put more money where my mouth was, I plunked down a few bucks on Rose’s “points + assists” exceeding 23.5. The cash was never in danger, as Rose torched the C’s for 36 and 11 in an OT win.

As that Bulls and Celtics game wound down, LeBron James and his top-seeded Cavaliers were prepping to tip off their postseason at home against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the line before tipoff, I was (in hindsight, mistakenly) apprehensive about laying 13.5 points. Shuddering at the thought of getting financially and emotionally invested in the game only to watch LBJ slap the Pistons with 35-10-8 in a 103-90 win, I knew that there was NO DAMN WAY LeBron would lay an egg to kick off what was to be his coronation. Thinking back to the types of statements that Magic, Michael and Larry made to kick off the playoffs with top-seeded teams, I bought into the idea that LeBron would follow suit and rack up more than 42.5 points, rebounds and assists. While the Cavs dominated the game and did ultimately cover, 102-84, I recall some dicey 4th quarter garbage-time moments- (none of which affected my mood however) since LeBron had already retired to the bench, having scored 38 points (you remember that unreal half-court, halftime buzz-beater?), grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 7 assists.

And thus began an ongoing journey down one hell of a fun path.

No stranger to prop bets, I’d never really thought about them as being profitable long-term but beginning that spring, and for nearly three years since, I’ve scaled back my action on traditional game lines and totals. I find myself opting instead to apply my love of hoops and stats to attacking the more inefficient player prop market

Despite a reputation as “suckers’ bets” for an incorrigible dork, those immersed in the statistics and day-to-day goings-on can use prop bets as a real investing asset. As in finance, some situations represent genuine value relative to risk (“actionable situations,” if you will), while a great many offer no discernible edge. Just as traders and investors in the financial markets are warned against overtrading or chasing action, cold and pragmatic assessment is vital along with resisting the urge to succumb to an itchy trigger finger. However, thanks in no small part to their afterthought status among most both bettors and oddsmakers, advantages found in prop markets provide opportunity.

Between the 2009 NBA playoff opener and the Lakers’ celebration in Orlando that June, my ~50 props bets (due to issues with online archives, I do not have a comprehensive log) hit at a(n) (unsustainable in the long run, but encouraging none the less) clip well in excess of 60%. Most appealing about this run (other than the cash) was the newfound luxury to pick and choose the part(s) of each game that matter to me; NBA a la carte if you will.

As one might reasonably surmise, the likelihood of maintaining any hit rate- let alone such an absurdly high one – shrinks when one has to monitor and analyze 30 teams worth of players (rather than a max of 16 in the postseason), many of whom lack the talent or consistency of a playoffs-only sample. However, if you’re looking to put in the hours and maintain a disciplined approach there might be something here when the playoffs start next week…

With the whirlwind that is the 2011-12 NBA regular season winding down, and what promises to be an incredible NBA postseason pretty much upon us, I’ll be popping in a couple of times each week to kick around some thoughts on the “prop market.” Some takes on thought process and rationale, emerging (or fading) trends, scheduling quirks, and other oddities – hopefully with minimal bitching about the inevitable bad beats.