EPL Round Up
There’s not a weekend that goes by where our EPL Insider fails to bring the goods. James Kempton provides his complete game capsules for a busy weekend in the Premier the week before teams break camp for international duty.
West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Arsenal have not won any of their last seven trips to the Hawthornes by more than one goal. Under 2.5 goals is on a 7-3 run when these sides meet in all competitions with just one of those games seeing more than three goals. Having seen Arsenal in person myself last weekend I have to say no Premiership side should fear them, unless Sanchez is on the ball! Its worrying though for potential Baggies backers that they’ve lost 2-0 and 3-0 in their last two games. One to miss for me.
Crystal Palace v Watford
Crystal Palace -0.5 and 2.25 goals
It was 1-1 when the sides met earlier in the season and Yes on Both Teams To Score is 5-2 since August 2011. These are two teams that I just cannot trust and in these seemingly tense relegation type battles you’re usually attracted to the under on the goals line even if it is set at 2.25 goals. Watford have kept just one clean sheet though since the end of October and that was against Middlesbrough! They’ve scored ten goals themselves in their last six EPL outings so with the line set at 2.25 I’m almost tempted to take a piece of the over.
Everton v Hull City
Everton -1 and 2.5 goals
Marco Silva has Hull playing a far better game from a tactical perspective since he took over the role as Head Coach and they are 3-2-3 in their last eight EPL outings. Everton have won five on the bounce at home by a combined scoreline of 18-3 but how will star striker Lukaku be greeted this week by the home faithful? His decision to not sign a new contract will not be met kindly by the passionate home support. I will just lean to the away side here as if Lukaku is not in the mood a full goal is a steep line for this Everton side to cover.
Stoke City v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.5 goals
Chelsea have won just three of their nine trips to the Brittania Stadium since September 2008 by more than one goal. This line is too much for me to give up on this Chelsea side given the potential for the Brittania faithful to become involved in the game. A couple of seasons ago this would have been an automatic play on the home team but sadly as they have morphed into a better footballing team they’re not as an enticing bet as they used to be!
Sunderland v Burnley
PK and 2.25 goals
Burnley are getting on a bus again and this season in the EPL they are 0-2-12 on the road and have netted just nine times. It is a hard bet to make but you have to side with the Mackems here on the PK line. It’s hard to do but take away the team names and the mixed emotion of wagering on the home team and you know you have to back Sunderland. The numbers tell you this is a good play.
West Ham United v Leicester City
West Ham -0.25and 2.5 goals
Leicester ground out a 1-0 home win on New Years Eve in the final weeks of the Ranieri reign. Prior to that though there had been at least two goals in each of the seven meetings of the sides, over 2.5 goals 6-1, since October 2011. The Snakes of Leicester may have found their form but I’m still not convinced by them. I’m loving the over 2.5 goals though in this game as with both teams appearing to be safe from relegation there is no need for their ropey looking defences to stay switched on.
Bournemouth v Swansea City
Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Bournemouth won 3-0 at the Liberty Stadium on New Years Eve but the Swans were managed by Bob Bradley at the time so let’s discount that result! Last season the Cherries won 3-2 in this fixture and the reverse fixture ended 2-2 in Wales. This game has goals written all over it as some teams just gel when they face each other to provide open, entertaining and goal packed games. These are two such teams who play refreshingly positive football even with fairly limited resources. Overs!
Middlesbrough v Manchester United
Manchester United -1 and 2.25 goals
United earned that last gasp come from behind victory on New Years Eve when the sides met earlier this season as they grabbed a last minute goal to win 2-1. Boro are 0-4-6 in their last ten EPL outings and where is there next goal coming from? They failed to score in seven of those ten and here they meet a United side in good form. This could be a typical Mourinho grind out a 1-0 win with no forwards available type of game. Coming off of the back of their Europa League exploits on Thursday night I advise great caution.
Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
Tottenham Hotspur -0.75 and 2.5 goals
When these sides meet the away team in the fixture has scored at least twice in seven of the nine EPL meetings of the teams since October 2012. Those stats will encourage this positive and vibrant Southampton side and without Harry Kane in their line up Spurs will struggle to replace his goals. A tentative lean to the away team and I have to side with the trends on the goal line and go over even without Spurs’ talisman in their line up.
Manchester City v Liverpool
Manchester City -0.5 and 3 goals
Liverpool won 1-0 when the sides met for the first time this season at Anfield on New Years Eve. 12-4 to the over 2.5 goals in the last sixteen meetings of the sides suggests that this will be a high scoring game. By watching these two teams play this season then this game should end up 7-6 but then again I said that back on New Years Eve! Neither line offers much appeal to me so although this should be an enthralling game to watch it is sadly from a betting perspective a stay away encounter.
