Match Week 15
As we head towards the holidays and the annual tradition of EPL fixture congestion; clubs at all levels of the table know how important the December push for points is to their overall success. Here to give us a bit of clarity is EPL insider James Kempton with this complete analysis and best bets.
Watford v Everton
Everton -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Both of last seasons’ meetings of the sides ended all square as this fixture finished one apiece with the return on Merseyside seeing a 2-2 result. Everton are 2-1-4 on the road this season so how can you side with them giving up a start on the handicap? Watford are 3-1-3 on home soil though so they are not exactly trustworthy either. I do not see how Everton are favoured in this game but I am not keen on backing Watford either; A pass for me here.
Arsenal v Stoke City
Arsenal -1.5 and 3 goals
Historically over the years there has been this impression that Stoke have caused the Gunners huge problems. There were times that we saw Wenger’s men struggle against the Potters but Stoke have now gone three games against Arsenal without finding the back of the net. As Stoke’s tactics have evolved over time their ability to get to Arsenal has decreased. Stoke have lost just one of their last nine league games so going against them here receiving a full goal and a half would be a bold play. Home win is the play but there are better opportunities out there this weekend.
Burnley v Bournemouth
Bournemouth -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The teams met twice in the 2013/14 season in the Championship with both games ending one apiece. Burnley are 4-1-3 at home and since the opening day loss against Swansea they have been defeated only by Arsenal and Man City at Turf Moor. It was a great comeback last week at home to Liverpool by Bournemouth as they came from 3-1 down to win 4-3. This is another circle your wagons type of game for the home team and I will take them to at least avoid defeat in one of the best bets of the weekend.
Hull City v Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The teams have met ten time since December 2010 in Championship and EPL action with under 2.5 goals going 9-1 and No on BTTS going 8-2. When the teams last met in the Premiership it was Hull who earned a double with two 2-0 victories. Palace snapped a six game losing streak last time out when they beat Southampton 3-0 and over 2.5 goals is on a 6-0 and 9-2 run in their recent games. You want to take the overs here with the line set at just 2.25 goals but history tells you to be wary.
Swansea City v Sunderland
Swansea -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Swansea won that incredible game against Crystal Palace last time out at home but that is their only win in the last thirteen EPL outings. Sunderland are fighting hard for Coach Moyes and to be honest I had him losing his job by now so I got that one wrong! I lean to the away team but receiving just a quarter of a goal but such a poor team on the road makes the bet of lukewarm appeal at best.
Leicester City v Manchester City
Man City -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Two teams in a bit of crisis mode meet here and it is hard to imagine this game ending goalless like it did last season. There have been at least four goals in three of Man City’s seven away games but over 2.5 goals is 6-1. The home team built their success last season on a strong backline but they’ve only kept three clean sheets all season. All three of those were on home soil and maybe welcoming such a high profile club will take some of the pressure off Claudio Ranieri’s men. I like the overs in this one.
Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion
Chelsea -1.75 and 2.75 goals
The Blues have won eleven games this season with three being won by two goals and four by three or more goals. West Brom are a reliable, well organised and well coached side whose NFL comparison would be the Baltimore Ravens as they never beat themselves! Their two losses on the road this season were both by just one goal at Bournemouth and Liverpool. Despite those strong stats pointing to the road dog Chelsea are so red hot at present I cannot take the Baggies.
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
Man Utd -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Spurs have just two victories in their last thirty one trips to Old Trafford in all competitions. However, those have both come in the past four seasons but despite that the historical record stops this from being an ‘automatic’ play. I say automatic as a few weeks ago United were at PK when they entertained Arsenal. Since then they have drawn at home to West Ham and away at Everton. Where has that quarter goal of respect come from? The value is with Spurs but that doesn’t mean you should dive in head first and empty your entire piggy bank on it.
Southampton v Middlesbrough
Southampton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
I have very little to say on this game. The Saints are the far more talented but far less reliable team especially off mid-week Europa league travel. With zero recent historical trends to factor in for this game I suggest we all move along to the next game as there is nothing to see or bet on here!
Liverpool v West Ham United
Liverpool -1.5 and 3.25 goals
The teams met four times last season with the Hammers winning three of them and one draw with Pool scoring just one goal in those four matches. Liverpool at Anfield are a different side when compared to the one that falls apart on their travels and they’ve won four of their home games by more than one goal. The only two they did not win by more than one goal was a goalless draw against Man Utd and when they beat West Brom 2-1. The Hammers do not have that resilience that the Baggies do or the quality that United possess. Even with my concerns over the Reds defence give me the home team to win and cover.
