Match Week 14
It doesn’t get any bigger than Saturday in the EPL. Two of the top three teams will renew their rivalry when Chelsea heads north to the Etihad to take on Manchester City. However that’s not the only match of the weekend that offers value to bettors so James Kempton is here like always to give you the skinny on every single fixture.
Manchester City v Chelsea
Man City -0.25 and 2.75 goals
Chelsea have been very impressive in recent weeks and I would not want to take them on at present, especially when they are receiving a start on the handicap. City have only kept clean sheets against Bournemouth and West Brom this season. In their last three games they’ve allowed the might of Burnley, Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough to breach their backline. This should be a great game full of high press from both teams and I will side with the away side to gain at least a share of the spoils.
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Southampton -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Siding with the home team here is a difficult proposition given the fact they conceded five goals away at Swansea last weekend. Those goals take the tally to seventeen goals finding their way into Palace’s net in their last five EPL outings. Southampton are a solid unit but trusting them giving up a start on the handicap is too much of an ask for me despite Palace’s woeful recent form. There has not been a draw in the last fourteen meetings of the teams so history suggests there will be a winner. If you can work it out then please let me know!
Stoke City v Burnley
Stoke -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Burnley won this fixture 2-1 last time they were in the Premiership in November 2014 but a win here is a big ask for Sean Dyche’s men. Bar that miraculous draw at Old Trafford where United had almost forty shots at goal Burnley have conceded at least three goals in each of their away games this campaign. That is a good thing though for Stoke backers as the home team need to win by two clear goals to fully cover this line. A tentative lean to the home team for me here.
Sunderland v Leicester City
PK and 2.5 goals
Leicester won this fixture 2-0 last season during the title run in but they come into this game on the back of that last minute equaliser at home to Middlesbrough. On paper the names on the Leicester team sheet are not vastly different from those that graced the Stadium of Light turf at the end of last season but the manner in which they are performing is. Sunderland have covered in each of their last three games and this line has trended from -0.25 to PK. Scratch given the Foxes recent form. If I was betting this game I would take the home team.
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City
Tottenham -1.5 and 3 goals
Over 2.5 goals has gone 5-0 in the last five EPL meetings of the teams and Swansea have not won any of the ten meetings of the sides in League action since December 2011. However, Spurs have scored just seven goals in their last six EPL matches so laying a goal and a half in this spot offers zero appeal. Historically goals have been seen when these two sides meet though and there have been at least three goals in six of the Swans’ last eight EPL games. Any team though who can concede four goals against Crystal Palace cannot be trusted so stay well clear of this game at the current market lines and prices.
West Bromwich Albion v Watford
West Brom -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Last season there was just one goal scored when the sides met and that was Watford’s winner in their 1-0 victory in this fixture. West Brom are 2-2-2 on home soil and Watford are 2-2-2 away from home this season so should you just grab the quarter goal with the away team? Of the two teams I trust the home side far more in terms of knowing what level of performance I can obtain from them so in fact I would lean the other way and take the Baggies.
West Ham United v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.75 and 2.75 goals
This game ended three apiece last season and all of the last nine meetings of the teams have seen at least two goals. In their last four away trips to the Hammers the Gunners have scored no fewer than eleven goals; that is a lot of goals! Arsenal have conceded in their last four EPL games and Bilic will prepare his side to look to set piece opportunities to attack Wenger’s men. Give me over 2.75 goals here and some comfort for Arsenal backers is the fact that five of their eight wins this season have come by two or more goals.
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.75 and 3 goals
Liverpool make this journey south without both Phillip Coutinho and Adam Lallana and last week we saw how slow Liverpool were to kick into gear without Lallana. Now they lose another key player in the Brazilian magician and suddenly this line begins to look a little steep. Liverpool have kept two consecutive clean sheets but the Cherries have scored in all but one home game this season but they did draw that game against Spurs. Grab the home team +0.75 as I feel given the injury issues that Klopp faces this line should not be more than a half goal in favour of Pool.
Everton v Manchester United
Man Utd -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Everton have won just one of their last eight games and this could just be the kind of game they need to reignite their season. Goodison Park is sure to be rocking for this match and Jose Mourinho and his side will be under pressure here. Everton are 3-3-0 on home soil this season and if you take the team names away then this line should be either Scratch or Everton -0.25 so the wrong team is favoured here. Take a little piece of the Toffees.
Middlesbrough v Hull City
Middlesbrough -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Hull have kept just one clean sheet in their thirteen EPL games this season and have scored more than one goal themselves in just three games and only more than once in one of their last eleven matches. Middlesbrough have already shown a propensity to keep it tight this season as their record of conceding fifteen goals is only bettered by six teams in the league. The season long trends suggest that the home team will score at least twice but historically meetings of the sides have been low scoring. For me it will be a pass.
