Match Week 13

Burnley v Manchester City
Man City -1.5 goals and 3 goals

City have scored fifteen goals in six road games this season and the only time they did not score at least twice was in their 2-0 defeat at Spurs. Despite the best laid plans of inferior EPL teams on home soil, at some point they come out of their defensive shape and City shred them. I lean City but laying one and a half goals on the road here is a big ask as Burnley have been competitive at home this season.

Hull City v West Bromwich Albion
PK and 2.25 goals

This is one of those games that Hull will identify as a “can win” game but conceding three goals to Sunderland last weekend must put some doubt in their mind. The fact their opponent scored four times on Monday Night Football should also concern the home team with the Baggies entering this game riding the crest of the wave. Off of a PK line I sense the value is with the Baggies but if this trends to West Brom -0.25 then I may just be tempted by the Tigers.

Leicester City v Middlesbrough
Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals

Leicester are 10-3-1 at home over this season and last against sides in the bottom half but Middlesbrough will be a tough nut to crack. The away team have conceded more than once in a game in just three fixtures this season and have allowed just four goals in their last six games including matches against Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City. Leicester have not become a bad side overnight but if Boro pack their defensive line I cannot see Leicester breaching them at will. In view of this I have to lean to the away side but it is with no real confidence.

Liverpool v Sunderland
Liverpool -2.25 and 3.5 goals

This game ended two apiece last season but the Mackems have won just one of the last thirteen meetings of the sides and none of the last eight. Liverpool have to score three goals to fully cover this line and I just cannot back a team on that kind of handicap  even against Sunderland especially with key man Adam Lallana out injured. This is a game where if you want to make a bet then you have to back the away team plus the goals but whatever you do don’t watch the game! 

Swansea City v Crystal Palace
PK and 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals is 6-0 when the sides have met in EPL action since September 2013 and three of those games ended one apiece. In view of that I am very surprised to see this goal line set at 2.5 as opposed to 2.25 and that may be to do with the fact that Swansea home games have seen seventeen goals in just six mathces this season. This game is sure to be played in a nervous atmosphere with both teams realizing the importance of three points even this early in the season. I am happy to follow the historical trends here and take the under 2.5 goals.

Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals

All but one of the last ten meetings of the sides in all competitions has seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 7-3. The recent record of Spurs at Stamford Bridge reads W0 D10 L18 so this price on the home team should not surprise anyone. I am desperate to back Spurs as I respect their determination and organisation but how can you given those historical trends? Despite the fact they are receiving an extra quarter of a goal than when they cashed for us at Arsenal it is a pass for me.

Watford v Stoke City
Watford -0.25 and 2.5 goals

Both meetings last season saw the away side emerging victorious. Stoke won this fixture 2-1 on the road with Watford winning at the Britannia Stadium 2-0. Stoke may be just 1-3-2 on their travels this season but recent trips away from the Britannia Stadium saw them earn draws at Man United and West Ham with a victory coming at Hull. Watford have just one defeat in their last six EPL games and that was the 6-1 thrashing at Anfield. The goals line could offer some value here as Watford look less stable under Mazzari defensively but offer more attacking threat. Overs!

Arsenal v Bournemouth
Arsenal -1.25 and 3 goals

Arsenal completed a 2-0 double last season when the sides met in EPL action and over this season and last Arsenal are 19-5-2 against bottom half placed sides scoring 51 and conceding 14. Bournemouth lie ninth in the table so are those stats obsolete? I do not think so though as I see the Cherries as a bottom half side but they have burnt me lately so am wary of taking them on too much. Despite that imperious record those twenty six games brought just sixty five goals which is exactly two and a half goals per game. Under 3 goals would be my call but in truth at the current market lines I will be staying away from this one.

Manchester United v West Ham United
Man Utd -1.25 and 2.75 goals

Yes on Both Teams To Score has gone 7-2 in the last nine total meetings of the sides but West Ham have not won at Old Trafford since May 2007, eleven trips ago. For this game I am drawn towards a West Ham side who are 1-0-5 on their travels this season but appear to be improving in recent weeks. This game does not offer any value in my opinion and to be honest these two teams are quite untrustworthy. Maybe a Yes on the Both Teams To Score market for a bit of fun could liven this game up from a viewing perspective but hold off on any substantial wagers. 

Southampton v Everton
Southampton -0.25 and 2.25 goals

Ronald Koeman returns to St Marys and he will be looking for a repeat of the 3-0 win that the Toffees earned on the south coast last season. The Saints are gaining a lot of plaudits for their recent displays but the facts are that they have picked up just one win in their last six games and that was a home win over Burnley. The Toffees have won just one of their last seven matches and that was against West Ham and during that time they lost on the road at Burnley. Another game on the card that is priced up accurately and in which I have no real opinion on.