Match Week 12
International break be damned…it’s time the boys started back on the domestic grind. For those of us stateside we’re all thankful that Team USA has months to rehab its image. However in the interim our EPL guru James Kempton offers his thoughts on all the weekend’s biggest fixtures.
Manchester United v Arsenal
PK and 2.5 goals
It is rare that you can obtain United off of a PK line on home soil. Given Arsenal’s poor record here, just one win in their last thirteen trips, IT makes them the logical side to take. That said they’ve already lost to Man City and also drawn with Stoke and Burnley at Old Trafford this campaign. Mourinho revels in these battles with Wenger and I just cannot see Arsenal winning this match under any circumstance. I lean to United as I sense Jose will set his team up to frustrate Arsenal knowing full well that Arsene Wenger will not alter his tactics.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City
Man City -1 and 3 goals
Man City have won six of the seven meetings of the sides since December 2013 with four of those six City wins coming by more than one goal. After a lightening quick start to the season City have won just one of their last five games and bar the four goals they scored at West Brom scored just three in the other of those four matches. If City are not wasteful in front of goal they could cover this line easily but with their key players returning from all over the world after international duty will they be as sharp as usual? City or pass but it will probably be pass for me.
Everton v Swansea City
Everton -1 and 2.75 goals
Swansea won this trip to Goodison Park 2-1 last season but that was during the final few weeks of what turned out to be the train wreck Martinez era. Everton are five games without a win in all competitions against the Swans but the Welsh team are ten games without a win and so far have gone backwards under new head coach Bob Bradley. They have conceded at least two goals in five of their last six matches and nothing we’ve seen of late suggests they will not do that in this fixture. This game is priced very tightly so I will leave it alone.
Southampton v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.25 and 2.75 goals
The Saints won 3-2 when the sides met in EPL action last season at St Marys and that was after Liverpool had emerged 6-1 winners at the same venue in the Carling Cup. Both teams also found the net in a 1-1 draw at Anfield earlier in the season so this game looks set to be an open and exciting one for spectators. Liverpool have scored at least twice in eight of their eleven EPL games but have kept just one clean sheet. I lean to Liverpool in this spot with no real certainty but I am certain this game will have plenty of goals so give me the over 2.75 goals.
Stoke City v Bournemouth
Stoke -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Stoke earned an EPL double last season as following their 2-1 win in this fixture early in the campaign they won 3-1 on the south coast in mid-February. This looks a great value chance to back a proven EPL side who are in good form against a side who’ve lost to both Middlesbrough and Sunderland in their last two outings! Home win and it is my bet of the weekend.
Sunderland v Hull City
Sunderland -0.25 and 2.25 goals
What a dour game this looks set to be. Sunderland are not very good but prior to their win last time out Hull had lost six straight games and in the process scored three and conceded twenty goals. I won’t say Sunderland are a solid selection as this is one of those games that Hull will circle the wagons for and throw the kitchen sink at but I would rather have a bet on the Mackems in this one.
Watford v Leicester City
Scratch and 2.25 goals
If I had a semblance of confidence in the ability of Leicester to keep a clean sheet I would be all over them in this game. Sadly they have not achieved this on the road all season and the only crumb of comfort I can find for Leicester backers is that their schedule to start the campaign on the road has been very tough. Nine of the Foxes eleven games this season have seen at least two goals and over 2.5 goals is 4-1 at Vicarge Road this season so with the line set at 2.25 goals then I lean to the overs on the goal line.
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United
Tottenham Hotspur -1 and 2.75 goals
Spurs hammered West Ham 4-1 when the teams met in this fixture last season and the present gulf in class between the two sides seems enormous. The last five meetings of the sides in all competitions at White Hart Lane have gone over 2.5 goals and I cannot see West Ham failing to keep it very tight against this vibrant Spurs side. I like Tottenham and the overs here but not sure we will get much help from West Ham for the overs bet as they’ve scored just four goals in their last six EPL games and Spurs have allowed just six goals in their eleven EPL games. I am going square here, favourite and over!
Middlesbrough v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.5 goals
I was lucky enough to be at Stamford Bridge for that 5-0 demolition of Everton in the Blues’ last EPL outing and it was a joy to behold. Chelsea have now won five straight EPL games to nil and scored sixteen goals in the process. The home team are a resilient bunch as although they’ve lost four of their eleven EPL games this season only one of those, away to Everton, was by more than one goal. Mixed stats for this game make me want to pass the game completely.
West Bromwich Albion v Burnley
West Brom -0.5 and 2 goals
These two teams have met eight times in all competitions since November 2006 and every game has cashed an over 2.5 goal ticket. West Brom are quite a reliable side for punters as of late they only seem to lose the games they should lose. I am shocked this goal line is so low as does a clean sheet at Old Trafford last time out really justify such faith that Burnley will keep this very tight? Give me over 2 goals here as before that bizarre game in Manchester at least three goals were seen in all of Burnley’s away games this campaign.
