Match Week 11
It’s time for your weekly football fix. EPL insider James Kempton is here to give you his thoughts on every single Match Week 11 fixture
Bournemouth v Sunderland
Bournemouth -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Can you bet Bournemouth as over half of a goal favourite against any EPL team? I am not sure but given the fact Sunderland are 0-1-4 on their travels you cannot support the away team either. The Mackems have conceded only seven goals in those five away trips so with this goal line set at 2.5 I will take them to keep it tight and have a piece of the under.
Burnley v Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The sides have met eight times in Championship and EPL action since September 2010 and under 2.5 goals is 6-2. Palace did win this trip though in January 2015 in a high scoring 3-2 away win. The home team are 3-1-2 on home soil this season with just an opening day defeat to Swansea and a recent loss to Arsenal being inflicted on them at Turf Moor. I like the home team here.
Manchester City v Middlesbrough
Man City -1.75 and 3 goals
Can Middlesbrough replicate that recent performance at the Emirates where they earned a goalless draw? It is a big ask but I will be very interested to see the team news going into this game. This game for City comes on the back of a big Champions League game against Barcelona and ahead of a World Cup qualifying week which will see a lot of their players jet across the world on international duty. Will Guardiola mix his line up? Until I see the line ups I couldn’t possibly think of betting this game and even then I would urge caution.
West Ham United v Stoke City
West Ham -0.25 and 2.75 goals
The last four meetings of the sides in Premiership action in the capital have gone under 2.5 goals with just five total goals being scored. In all competitive meetings, including cup ties, West Ham have won just three of the last fourteen meetings of the two sides. Stoke come into this game in good form having conceded just three goals in their last 5 EPL games. I see the Potters being able to contain this home sides attack so if I can grab an extra quarter of a goal then I love the under 2.75 goals.
Chelsea v Everton
Chelsea -1 and 2.75 goals
At first glance with these prices I wanted to be all over the away side but further digging shows that this game is a complete no bet match. Everton have not won at Stamford Bridge in any of their competitive meetings since 26th November 1994, twenty seven games ago! Yes there seems to be some decent value with the away team but those historical trends should make you skip straight to the next game.
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal -0.5 and 2.75 goals
The past two EPL meetings of the sides at the Emirates have finished one apiece and Yes on Both Teams To Score has landed in all five of the last competitive meetings of the teams. Before last weekends’ set of EPL games this match was priced nearer to Arsenal -0.25 so should a comfortable Arsenal win at Sunderland and a Spurs home draw with the reigning champions be enough to shift this line a quarter of a goal? No is the answer so take the half goal with the away team.
Hull City v Southampton
Southampton -0.75 and 2.25 goals
This line has trended down to Southampton -0.75 and at that level I cannot support the Saints. At some point Hull will avoid defeat and do you really want to be on the opposite side of that bet at an unfavourable line? I would rather approach this game from a goal line angle as all of Hull’s games against the ‘non elite’ sides, bar the 6-1 debacle at Bournemouth, have gone under 2.5 goals. Unders.
Liverpool v Watford
Liverpool -1.5 and 3 goals
Liverpool won this fixture 2-0 at the end of last season which did much erase the debacle at Vicarage Road for the Reds when they lost 3-0 on the Sunday before Christmas. Some managers plan ahead and I am sure certain teams will change their line ups ahead of a busy travel schedule for some of their staff during the international week. Jurgen Klopp does not really fit into that category and I’m sure he will want a resounding victory here at all costs. Give me the home team to win this match by at least two goals.
Swansea City v Manchester United
Man Utd -1 and 2.75 goals
Over 2.5 goals is 7-1 in the last eight meetings of the teams and the Swans have won this fixture 2-1 in each of the past two seasons. Having drawn that blank at home to Burnley last weekend there is no way you can either trust United to win the game or score plenty of goals. Will we see a typical Mourinho low scoring away win? The simple truth is that we do not know. Pass.
Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion
Leicester -0.75 and 2.25 goals
This fixture ended two apiece last season in early March which was a result which many ‘experts’ saw as a reason to dismiss the Foxes’ title hopes. Despite the Baggies being a notoriously difficult side to overcome Leicester have scored eight times in the last three meetings of the teams. Following that midweek trip to Copenhagen it will be interesting to see what line up Ranieri selects for this match. If it is at full strength then take the home team but anything less than his best team would make me pass this match.
