Match Week 9
Match week 9 kicks off in earnest with a number of clubs returning to domestic league action after a busy week of European competition. To break it all down including the return of Jose Mourinho to Stamford Bridge James Kempton, our football insider from across the pond, is here to help.
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Last season Tottenham won the two meetings of the sides 5-1 here on the south coast and 3-0 back in north London. Spurs were priced at -0.75 for their trip to West Brom last weekend and failed to deliver for many punters. The Cherries’ price for this match has benefited from playing a Hull side last weekend that’s clearly in free fall. I sense this line is the right line but I do like Spurs to get back to their winning ways here and will take them minus half a goal.
Arsenal v Middlesbrough
Arsenal -1.75 and 3 goals
The pressure is building up on Aitor Karanka at Middlesbrough and given his ‘walkabout’ last season I’m sensing patience with him won’t be high on Steve Gibson and the board’s agenda. Middlesbrough have only scored more than once in a game on just one occasion and that came away at lowly Sunderland. I just cannot see them creating many chances so give me the home side to cover a prohibitive looking handicap.
Burnley v Everton
Everton -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Are Everton an elite side? That is the question we have to ask ourselves going into this match. I don’t think any side in the EPL, until maybe late in the season when certain clubs have thrown the towel in, should be priced up -0.75 away from home unless they are in that elite category. Including their Capital Cup tie against Norwich, that they lost 2-0, Everton have only scored twice in their last four games. We lost last week with Burnley but getting an extra quarter of a goal I sense they are the value side.
Hull City v Stoke City
Scratch and 2.25 goals
In many ways it is ironic that the media is surprised at the manner of Hull’s recent slide down the table. At the beginning of August they were struggling to field a five-a-side team so that amazing early season team spirit could only carry them so far. Stoke are buoyed by a much needed win last Saturday and I sense they will make it two wins in a row here. Under 2.5 goals is on a 4-0 run when these sides meet in EPL action since December 2013 and only one of those games saw two goals! Away team and under.
Leicester City v Crystal Palace
Leicester -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Leicester will be pleased to return home after some pretty dismal showings on the road so far this season. Admittedly three of those trips were to Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United so I will allow them some leeway. The Foxes won both meetings of the sides 1-0 last season and all four meetings of the past two seasons have gone under 2.5 goals. I lean to the home team as after three wins in Champions League action they should now refocus their sights on domestic competition.
Swansea City v Watford
Swansea -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Two 1-0 home victories were the order of the day when the sides met last season and in his first home game in charge I would not dissuade anyone from backing a similar outcome. I will pass this game I think as I am struggling to properly evaluate this Watford side.
West Ham United v Sunderland
West Ham -0.75 and 2.5 goals
West Ham earned a great win at Crystal Palace last weekend and I have to say I missed a trick. Despite what the media may say their most important player is indeed Aaron Cresswell. He returned last Saturday after an injury absence and suddenly they looked a better side defensively and more of a threat going forward. However he is suspended for this game so they will be unable to call on his services. West Ham are unbeaten in the last six EPL meetings of the sides but I lean to the away team given the fact they are getting a quarter of a goal more than West Ham should ever be laying at present but folks please remember it’s Sunderland!
Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion
Liverpool -1.5 and 3 goals
A big line of -1.75 was soon bet down to -1.5 as Liverpool got ‘Mourinho-d’ on Monday Night Football. The Baggies earned a 2-2 draw at Anfield last season which was famous for Jurgen Klopp parading his side in front of the Kop celebrating at the final whistle. Yes on BTTS is 4-1 in the last five EPL meetings of the teams and West Brom, as well as that draw last season, have won three of their last five trips to the red side of Merseyside in the Premiership. West Brom have suffered a full loss on this line in just three of their last forty five away games and just one of those was away from home (at Southampton). Away team or pass but this game will more than likely move to -1.75 as Liverpool and Saturday chaser money comes in for this late game.
Manchester City v Southampton
Man City -1 and 3 goals
The last eight EPL meetings of the sides since August 2012 have seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 6-2 in that run. City won all four of those meetings at the Etihad and have covered a -1.5 goal line in each of the three seasons on home soil. I lean to the home team but after their midweek exertions at the Nou Camp I think I would rather keep away.
Chelsea v Manchester United
Chelsea -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The game we have all been waiting for, Jose’s return! Under 2.5 goals is on a 6-1 so I don’t expect this game to be full of goals. Despite their strong year on year EPL performances United have registered just one win at Stamford Bridge in their last fourteen league visits. It is a very lazy phrase when people say ‘Park the bus” like they did during Monday Night Football. Defending is an art form and really good teams find a way, more often than not, to break down a team whose sole intention is to keep a clean sheet. Under 2.5 goals for me.
