EPL Round 8
The boys are back this weekend! International break be damned it’s time for some domestic league fun in the Premiership. Every match on the slate serves as mere appetizers for the main course between blue blood clubs Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield. James Kempton is here to share all his best betting analysis for what should be a fun slate of fixtures.
Chelsea vs Leicester City
Chelsea -1 and 2.75 goals
This is a big line for Chelsea to cover given the fact Leicester have suffered just three losses on this line in their last forty five league games. However, two of those ocurred this season. This line is made even harder to cover by the fact that Leicester have scored in all four meetings of the sides over the past two season. It’s the away team or pass for me and I am leaning towards the pass given the fact the Foxes have conceded ten goals in their three road games at Hull, Liverpool and Manchester United so far this season.
Arsenal v Swansea City
Arsenal -1.75 and 3.25 goals
Bob Bradley’s first game and I sense this appointment for Swansea could be a complete disaster. The Swans have actually won their last two trips to the Emirates in league action and their similar pattern of play to the Gunners obviously causes Wenger’s men some problems. I don’t like the away team long term but they could see a short term bounce for their new coach and the trends favour them here. Take the Swans plus the one and three quarters.
Bournemouth v Hull City
Bournemouth -0.5 goals and 2.25 goals
After a horrific run of fixtures for Hull they will see this as a great opportunity to get some points on the board. This international break could have been just what they needed to regroup for this big game. The Cherries have lost just one game in their last five league outings and that was away at Manchester City and it was no big surprise that they lost that fixture. I lean towards the home side but it’s with no real conviction.
Manchester City v Everton
Manchester City -1.25 and 3.25 goals
This game finished goalless last season so that goal line already looks a bit steep to me. There have been just two away wins when the sides meet in the last thirteen total meetings so I will keep away from the Toffees. This goal line looks high to me as although both teams play some attacking football it is a big ask for an EPL game to cover this goal line. City have won six games so far this season and covered this line fully in four games. An intriguing game to watch but a minefield to bet on!
Stoke City v Sunderland
Stoke -0.5 and 2.5 goals
In the sixteen Premiership meetings of the sides since October 2008 the away team in the game has won just once. Stoke are the better team but does a one place difference in the table merit a half goal handicap? Sunderland are 0-1-2 on the road but lost only 2-1 at Man City, 1-0 at Spurs, and drew one apiece at Southampton so on paper they have been solid. The only bet you should consider making here is siding with the away team receiving the start but come the final whistle we will know if it was the brave or the stupid side.
West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Last season we saw both games finish one apiece and incredibly none of the last eight Premiership meetings have been won by the home side. Spurs have won three and drawn three of their last six trips to the Hawthornes. Tottenham have conceded just three goals so far this season and have kept four clean sheets in their seven league games. After the international break Spurs will be happy just to sneak this game by one goal and West Brom have suffered a full loss on this line only three times in their last thirty three league games. Home team or pass.
Crystal Palace v West Ham United
Crystal Palace -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals is on a 4-0 run over the past two seasons when these sides meet and all of those games saw four goals scored. The Hammers have registered two consecutive 3-1 wins at Selhurst Park but the chances of that happening this season appear minimal! Palace seem rejuvenated by the signing of Christian Benteke as they look a different attacking threat with him in their line up. It would seem that some of the Hammers’ faithful are beginning to question Bilic and with Palace riding high on the crest of the wave I sense all the value is with the home team in this game.
Middlesbrough v Watford
Middlesbrough -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Is this the most uninspiring game on the card today? The good news for Middlesbrough fans going into this game is that Watford have conceded in every game this season and more than once in five of seven matches so far this campaign. There have been at least two goals scored in six of Middlesbrough’s seven games and in all of Watford’s EPL outings so far this season. From my initial thoughts of this being uninspiring could this in fact be one of the best games of the weekend? Give me the over here as a goal early in the game should really open this one up.
Southampton v Burnley
Southampton -1.25 goals and 2.5 goals
Southampton have kept three straight clean sheets whilst Burnley have failed to score in either of their two away games so far this season and conceded six times. Easy home win then? Well maybe not as the Saints have scored more than one goal in only one of their seven league games so far this season. At home they’ve scored just once in each game against Sunderland, Swansea and Watford. This is another game where I really like the underdog. Receiving anything over a full goal makes it a good bet for me and the patient amongst you may even grab +1.5 as kick off approaches.
Liverpool v Manchester United
Liverpool -0.25 and 2.75 goals
United have won three of their last four trips to Anfield and have done the double in each of the last two seasons. None of that recent success appears to be being taken into account with the way this game has been priced up with Liverpool suddenly becoming the best team that the world has ever seen. Liverpool have not kept a clean sheet so far this season with teams that they have conceded to including Burnley, Hull and Swansea. There will probably be some late crazy Liverpool money pushing this game towards +0.5 so if it does grab it. The magic of Mourinho may be fading but these are the nights he lives for!
