EPL ROund 7
We will call this is the weekend of the heavy favourite. There are no fewer than four teams giving a goal or more in their respective matches and three of them actually find themselves on the road. James Kempton offers his thoughts and analysis on every match to put your wagering dollars to work this weekend.
Everton v Crystal Palace
Everton -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Friday Night Football is back and this should be a cracker as Alan Pardew’s men return north following that amazing come from behind win at Sunderland last weekend. It was one apiece last season and the Eagles registered two 3-2 victories in their other recent trips to Merseyside to take on the Toffees. Despite those historical results I lean to the home team…but after last weeks let down it won’t be for cold hard cash!
Swansea City v Liverpool
Liverpool -1.25 and 3 goals
Swansea matched Man City for long periods of their game last Saturday but it was the extra class of City that eventually saw them pull away and win by two clear goals. Over 2.5 goals is 7-3 in the last ten meetings of the sides with over 3.5 goals going 6-4 in that run. I lean to the underdog and over the total but if the game becomes a shootout Liverpool have far more ammunition to shoot than the Swans.
Hull City v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.75 goals
Many teams may face the kind of wrath on Merseyside this season that saw Hull succumb 5-1 last weekend but I am not convinced that this Chelsea side has that kind of ‘blow away’ ability. I sense Chelsea is more workmanlike than the other top teams in this league so I am happy to take Hull plus a full goal and lean to the under in the goals market.
Sunderland v West Brom
Sunderland -0.25 and 2.25 goals
There has been just one total goal in the last three meetings of these two teams and that was West Brom’s goal at the Hawthornes last October. In fact the Mackems have won just one of the last twelve meetings of the teams in EPL action since August 2010 and despite those recent low scoring trends the over 2.5 goals is 7-5 in those games. Those trends point to a slight lean to the over 2.25 and despite their lack of offensive talent I sense defensive frailties of the home team helps push this game over the total.
Watford v Bournemouth
Watford -0.25 and 2.5 goals
We saw two draws when these sides met last season including a goalless result here at Vicarage Road in late February. Those games followed a pattern of four of the last five match ups of the teams ending all square and I can see a similar outcome here. That loss last time out at Burnley puts me on warning for the home team here and they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. To be honest this is a game to avoid completely from a betting perspective.
West Ham United v Middlesbrough
West Ham -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The only reason the Hammers’ faithful are standing at present is because they have no seats! Middlesbrough look ripe for the taking here though at this price point but it is a brave man who backs West Ham here given the negativity surrounding the club as a whole. Given the lackluster look of the home attack and the desire of the away team to sit off and play on the counter attack I’m happier siding with under 2.5 goals as one of my favoured bets of the week.
Manchester United v Stoke City
Manchester United -1.5 and 3 goals
United have sprung into life and Mark Hughes cannot afford another battering because it would help the Stoke board squeeze the trigger to fire him. United have won all eight EPL games at Old Trafford since Stoke entered the league in the 2008-09 season. Those games have seen over 2.5 goals 7-1 with the Red Devils outscoring the Potters 25-6. History says the home team giving up a start is a good bet but this could be Hughes’ last stand. One to skip for me.
Leicester City v Southampton
Leicester -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Given the way both sides set up I would want to be on the away team in this fixture given each team is more adept at playing on the counter attack. I lean to the away team as they seem to match up well with the Foxes. However, they have had two days less preparation time for this game having traveled back from Israel so it is a brave man who backs the Saints given the difficult travel schedule.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City
Manchester City -0.25 and 2.75 goals
Over 2.5 goals is on a 9-1 run in the last ten Premiership meetings of the sides with seven of those ten hitting an over 3.5 goals ticket. Why do we want to try and reinvent the wheel? This goal line should be set at three and again I will re-iterate until we lose an under/over bet on Man City keep pounding that over! On the match market there may be a small amount of value on the home team avoiding defeat but bets on the goal line look far more enticing.
Burnley v Arsenal
Arsenal -1.25 and 2.75 goals
These are the games that Arsenal enjoy but laying a goal and a quarter is not appealing to me. Arsenal squeaked out a 1-0 win in their last trip to Turf Moor back in April 2015 when Burnley last graced the Premiership. Can Burnley follow up that great MNF win over Watford here? The value is with the home team but that doesn’t always mean it’s the correct bet to make and I think I will wait on team news before deciding whether to pull the trigger on the home side.
