EPL Round 6
An EPL season without drama at Old Trafford isn’t an EPL season at all. Fortunately the proud club is still fighting for it’s new identity under Jose Mourinho; a far cry from the resurgence being experienced by their Man City neighbors. The biggest match of the weekend takes place in London with city bragging rights on the line between Arsenal and Chelsea. James Kempton’s here to shed light on all things EPL this weekend.
Manchester United v Leicester City
Man Utd -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Both games ended all square last season with 1-1 draws. If you include the Community Shield played back in August all five meetings of the sides since September 2014 have seen Yes on BTTS land. All the pressure going into this game is heaped onto the home team as it’s tough to remember when a Mourinho led team lost three games in a week. I will take the Yes on Both Teams To Score as my favourite bet here on what appears to be a tricky looking match and goal market line.
Bournemouth v Everton
Everton -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The sides met three times last season and Everton scored at least twice in each of those games with the League game here finishing 3-3. When I priced this game up in my mind I had Everton as a -0.5 favourite but I think the books are don’t want to show a knee jerk reaction to Everton’s recent strong performances. Last time out I believed they offered value at home to Middlesbrough and after a nervous start won easily. I will continue to back Everton until either the books adjust correctly or they let me down…it worked quite well with Leicester a season ago.
Liverpool v Hull City
Liverpool -1.75 and 3 goals
When these two sides met two seasons ago they could only muster one goal in those meetings. Hull won 1-0 at the KC Stadium with the return fixture at Anfield ending goalless so is this goal line set too high? In the eight EPL meetings of the sides since December 2008 Liverpool have won by more than one goal on just three occasions including two such victories on Merseyside. Liverpool are 11-3-1 when priced 1/3 or shorter at home over the past five seasons but only six of those eleven wins were by more than just one goal. The numbers and trends say Hull but your eyes tell you Liverpool, which do you trust more?
Middlesbrough v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham -0.5 and 2.25 goals
We have no recent head to head meetings or trends to go on and I am struggling to get my head around this Middlesbrough team. Are they a well coached, well organised but defensive side or are they just garbage? If Spurs are smart they should play this game out, take no chances themselves and wait for the chance they are sure to get at some point in the game. If you want to bet this game the away team is the side to take and they will probably to nil but I will skip it.
Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion
Stoke -0.25 and 2.25 goals
West Brom did the double in the ‘Tony Pulis Bowl’ last season including a 1-0 win here at the Brittania Stadium back in August of last year. The teams have met fourteen times since November 2008 in EPL action and these games have gone 10-4 to under 2.5 goals. The pressure is building on Mark Hughes as there has been big money on him to be the first manager to lose his job. If ever there was a game to turn it around this is the one but in a nervous encounter I will take the under 2.25 goals as the better bet to make.
Sunderland v Crystal Palace
Scratch and 2.25 goals
It was an exciting 2-2 draw when these sides met at the Stadium of Light back in March as a last gasp Fabio Borini equaliser gave the Mackems a crucial point in their survival battle. They had also won 1-0 at Selhurst Park earlier in the season so will be confident in taking the points from this game. However, the home team have only won one of the six EPL meetings of the sides in the last three seasons and that was Palace’s 3-1 win in London back in August 2013. We saw Palace win at Middlesbrough the other week but I won’t betting them here to make it a repeat in the north east as this looks a very difficult game to call at the current prices.
Swansea City v Manchester City
Man City -1.25 and 3 goals
Yes on Both Teams To Score has landed in five straight EPL meetings of the sides and this game finished one apiece at the back end of Manuel Pelligrini’s reign last May. Prior to that over 2.5 goals had gone 5-0 with the Blues scoring fourteen goals in those five matches. The Swans have won just one of the ten EPL meetings of the sides since August 2011 with Man City winning by more than one goal on just three occasions. The last five seasons have seen seventy games where the away team were priced shorter than 1.6, the away team won forty four of those but only eighteen were won by more than one goal. Another game where the trends tell you dog but your eyes tell you to back the favourite. Stick with backing those overs on the goal line until Man City let you down.
Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsenal -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals is on a five game run when these sides meet in all competitions and is 7-1 in the last eight total meetings of the sides. Chelsea did the double to nil last season when the teams squared off and wait for this………the Gunners have scored just one goal in those last eight games! With Chelsea hopeful that John Terry will return this weekend, their defence could be more organised than they were at home to Liverpool last Friday night. Both teams look to have defensive frailties so that run of unders could come to an end. This is yet another game this week where I am torn between the historical trends and what I have seen of late. It may be as simple for me as waiting to see if John Terry is fit before going under or over.
West Ham United v Southampton
Scratch and 2.5 goals
There has been just one away win in the ten EPL and Championship meetings of the sides since October 2011 but it was the Saints’ 3-1 win last season. Under 2.5 goals is 6-4 in those meetings but all four of those that cashed the over were in east London and played at Upton Park. Give me those trends to continue as I sense these teams do not fear each other and this crowd will be whipped up into one heck of a frenzy this Sunday.
Burnley v Watford
Scratch and 2.25 goals
Sean Dyche will welcome his former club Watford to Turf Moor for Monday Night Football and contrary to what many people may think I have a feeling this will be a very good game. Since Walter Mazarri took over at the helm of Watford they are 5-0 to both Yes on Both Teams To Score and over 2.5 goals. Burnley have had a tough opening to their season having been forced to travel to Chelsea and Leicester as well as hosting Liverpool, who they beat. That 2-0 win over Liverpool was greatly assisted though by some poor defending from the Reds and those are the only goals bar one at home to Hull they have scored this season. I have a feeling there will be goals and like the over 2.25 goals and Yes on BTTS but that kind of game is not the recipe for a Burnley win.
