EPL Round 5
The Premier League never fails to disappoint and last weekend we were treated to a real cracker in the Manchester Derby. This weekend we have a rare Friday Night football match between two of the largest clubs in England. Sit back, relax, and let James Kempton do the heavy lifting to get your gambling mind right this week.
Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea -0.25 and 2.75 goals
We have contrasting goal trends going into this exciting Friday Night Football offering. Yes on BTTS has gone 11-3 in the last fourteen competitive meetings of the sides but recently the under 2.5 goals is 5-2 in the last seven between them. John Terry is ruled out of this match so there will be some defensive reshuffling required by the home team and that should favour this attacking looking Liverpool team. If you could predict that the away team would put in an adequate performance you could side with them but they are so unpredictable it’s hard to trust them. This is one to sit back and enjoy as your weekend starts and those who do want to place a bet may just take a little piece of the unders.
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Hull v Arsenal
Arsenal -1 and 2.5 goals
Arsenal were in Paris midweek for their Champions League campaign and it may only have been a quick hop over the channel but I am loathed to give up a full goal in view of that trip. Having said that they have made the trek to Hull five times since January 2009 and outscored the Tigers 15-4 covering this line four times and pushing the other visit. The effort we’ve seen from the home team so far this season though makes me keep away from this game from a betting perspective but each of those five games saw an over 2.5 goals bet cash. I am not diving in head first but those trends do suggest goals will be seen this Saturday so wouldn’t dissuade anyone from taking over 2.5 goals.
Leicester City v Burnley
Leicester -1 and 2.5 goals
This is the game the champions bounce back, right? Despite all of the negative press and “their bubble has burst” type articles I don’t actually think Leicester have done too badly so far this season. Giving up a full goal is a big ask though as I’m sure Mr Ranieri only cares about a victory in this game and they’re coming off of that emotional Champions League debut away midweek. The sides have met eight times in EPL and Championship League action since November 2011 and Leicester have won five games with the other three ending all square. Encouragingly though for Burnley all three of the draws have been in Leicester. The home team should win and they may be a good team for your parlays this week but giving up a full goal is not for me. I envisage Burnley sitting deep and absorbing lots of home pressure so the under 2.5 goals may offer some appeal as well.
Manchester City v Bournemouth
Man City -1.75 and 3 goals
This should be a demolition job shouldn’t it as City looked truly fantastic last weekend at Old Trafford. Preparations for the home team ahead of this game have been disrupted following that freak thunderstorm that saw their midweek UCL game postponed by one night. For a man such as Guardiola who prepares his players down to the very last minute detail this change to their schedule will have disrupted his planning for the whole week. In view of that I cannot back City -1.75 but with them being 4-0 to over 2.5 goals so far this season I will take some of the over 3 goals especially as they are yet to keep a clean sheet in EPL action. If you throw into the mix the fact that last seasons’ two meetings saw ten total goals then I see a push as the worst case scenario.
West Bromwich Albion v West Ham United
Scratch and 2.25 goals
Both clubs appear in disarray at the moment both on and off the pitch. Results on the field are not going either sides way and the fans are turning, in West Ham’s case on each other, and the pressure is building on Tony Pulis who was catcalled by the Baggies faithful last time out. Over 2.5 goals is 7-4 since September 2008 when these sides meet in competitive action which suggest this 2.25 goal line could be tested to the over. However, recent attacking displays from both sides suggest that a line of 2.25 is probably about right. This could be an ugly game to watch but it’s definitely an ugly game to try and place a bet on. A total No Bet game for me but the away side should at least see some respite from the issues they are facing at their new home, even so I don’t trust them enough to back them.
Everton v Middlesbrough
Everton -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Everton put in a powerful second half display against Sunderland on Monday Night Football following the substitution of Ross Barkley they dominated the game to win 3-0. Such was the strength of the performance that there has been some money this week for the Toffees for the title race which has seen them cut from 150/1. Middlesbrough lost 2-1 at home to Crystal Palace last Saturday and that was a poor result. At this price point I see some great value on the home side especially as we have seen them keep two consecutive clean sheets. We have learned over the years how good Ronald Koeman has been at producing attractive football whilst maintaining a strong backline. Dismiss Everton at your peril.
Watford v Manchester United
Man Utd -1 and 2.5 goals
Watford come into this game on the back of a fantastic 4-2 come from behind win away at West Ham. Jose Mourinho can try and deflect onto the referee all he wants following their derby defeat at the hands of City but they were well beaten. In all honesty though I sense a lot of United fans see through his attempts and as I was sat with United fans last weekend I notice patience also appears to be running short with Wayne Rooney. Rather than trusting United to win laying a full goal you may wish to look at the over 2.5 goals because as well as cashing in last seasons’ meeting it has already landed in Watford games against Arsenal and Chelsea at Vicarage Road this season. Importantly for this bet Watford found the net in those games as they have in every game so far this season under new boss Walter Mazzarri.
Crystal Palace v Stoke City
Crystal Palace -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Both teams went into their last games under a bit of pressure and we saw differing reactions. Palace stepped up to the plate and delivered a solid performance in a 2-1 victory away at Middlesbrough. Stoke were humbled 4-0 at home by Tottenham and although we saw a similar start last season from the Potters something just seems different this campaign. Mark Hughes looks to be a man under pressure, is getting into trouble with officials and this is a tough spot for them given the fact that Palace have won five of the last six meetings of the teams. Under 2.5 goals is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Selhurst Park with three of those seeing one or fewer goals so on the 2.25 goal line I lean to the under.
Southampton v Swansea City
Southampton -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Southampton won this meeting of the sides 3-1 last season but under 2.5 goals is 7-1 when the clubs meet in EPL action since November 2012. I’m not high on the chances for Swansea this season but I’m rational enough to spot the situations where they potentially do offer some value. At this price point they are the only side you can take in this game and the trends suggest unders is the way forward on the goal line. I caveat that with my thoughts on how fragile I sense the Swans are defensively since letting Ashley Williams head for Goodison Park. Time will tell how important that move will be for both the Swans and the Toffees.
Tottenham v Sunderland
Spurs -1.5 and 2.75 goals
After a relatively slow start it would appear that Spurs are beginning to click, unless you count UCL games at the neutral ground that is Wembley! Sunderland look dreadful and the struggle is real for David Moyes’ side this season. The historical trends when these sides meet point to the home team given Sunderland has not beaten Spurs in any of their last twelve EPL meetings with Tottenham winning nine of those. Spurs have covered this line in two of the last three meets at White Hart Lane and those wary of giving up one and a half goals may consider the over on the goals line considering the last three meets in London have seen 5,3 and 6 goals. Give me a piece of the over 2.75 goals as my favourite bet of the weekend.
