EPL Round 4
International break be damned, the EPL is back in action come this weekend. Not only do we have a full slate of fixtures but right out of the gates the soccer gods have given us an early season derby with major table implications. To make sense of everything by identifying the best betting angles James Kempton is here to do all the heavy lifting.
Manchester United v Manchester City
Manchester United -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Last season saw just one goal scored in the two meetings of the sides in EPL action. I cannot see that happening over the course of the two games this campaign. The openness with which Man City plays at times makes it hard to believe that the top sides will not be able to create chances against them. Despite this being a big game at the top of the table I’m happy to take a bit of the over 2.5 goals in what should be a very exciting game.
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Arsenal v Southampton
Arsenal -1 and 2.75 goals
Since the Saints returned to the EPL in August 2012; 5-3 to the under 2.5 goals in those matches as Southampton’s busy style seems to hamper the Gunners play. Arsenal hit three last time out away at Watford but this is a different challenge. The goal line is set here at a quarter of a goal higher than I’d expected so if I was betting this game I would look to take the unders on this goal line.
Bournemouth v West Bromwich Albion
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2 goals
It was 1-1 on the south coast back at the end of last season whilst the return fixture just before Christmas ended in a 2-1 win for the Cherries at the Hawthornes. The bookmakers are showing a lot of faith in this Bournemouth side to grant them a half goal handicap start over the Baggies and I’m not quite sure why. Will Jack Wilshire make that much of a difference for the home team? It’s a lean to the away side but remember it’s West Brom you’re trusting.
Burnley v Hull City
Burnley -0.25 and 2 goals
The sides have tangled ten times since September 2010 and it is 7-3 to the under 2.5 goals with six of the last seven meets hitting an under 2.5 goals ticket. No on Both Teams To Score is an incredible 9-1 run during those matches. There has not been a draw in the ten meetings with Burnley winning no fewer than eight with Hull registering just two wins. I see this being a very tight game as both clubs know that realistically they will be in a relegation battle come the end of the season. History suggests that this will be a low scoring game probably won by the home team. It is rare that I look to the correct score markets but maybe a 1-0 home victory could be worth a punt. The best wager here is backing the No on BTTS.
Middlesbrough v Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough -0.25 and 2 goals
We knew that Middlesbrough would look to base any success that they are to have this season on a strong defence. So far this season they have looked very solid at the back and here they welcome a Crystal Palace side who have scored just once in their three EPL games so far this campaign. It’s hard to build a case for the Eagles here and traditionally Alan Pardew’s teams have started well and then faded away as the season rolls along. Can they kickstart their campaign here? I’m shying away though from this game at the current market prices.
Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.75 and 2.25 goals
Goals have flown in during the recent meetings of these two sides as over 2.5 goals is 6-1 over the last seven EPL meetings and 12-4 over the entirety of Stoke’s stay in the EPL. Spurs won 4-0 in the Potteries back in April but before that Stoke had found the net seven times in the previous three EPL match ups so they do know how to test this Tottenham backline. The goal line is set low here given the trends when these teams meet so I’m happy to take some of the overs and I expect to cash!
West Ham United v Watford
West Ham -0.75 and 2.5 goals
West Ham appear to be struggling to create an atmosphere at the London Stadium and the home advantage that the Hammers used to revel in at Upton Park has dissipated since this move. It is still in its early days but away teams may benefit from this lack of an atmosphere provided from the extra 20,000 spectators! Can you trust the Hammers on this line given their lackluster start to the season? No is the answer.
Liverpool v Leicester City
Liverpool -1 and 2.75 goals
This game finished 1-0 to Liverpool on Boxing Day last season which was a result that helped us continue getting those juicy prices on the Foxes. This is more of a test for the home team than for the Champions as Leicester lost this game last season even though they won the title. After that great opening day victory the pressure is on Jurgen Klopp’s men as the usual hysteria greeted that win at Arsenal only to crash down to earth away at Burnley! The only bet to consider making here is the one on the away team plus a full goal but it’s not one that I shall be making.
Swansea City v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.5 goals
Swansea won this game 1-0 last season and that was their very first EPL victory over the Blues. Prior to that Chelsea had won six of the nine meetings and outscored the Swans 21-7. I sense Swansea are really going to struggle this season and I do not think they look too mentally strong with the sale of Ashley Williams to Everton a big loss for them. History tells us that Swansea will more than likely lose this game and the margin of victory could be more than one goal. However, it’s a big ask to lay a full goal on the road so I shall be passing on that line meaning any bets on Chelsea should be restricted to a Straight Up variety.
Sunderland v Everton
Everton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Sunderland have won four of the last seven meetings of the sides including the game that Roberto Martinez was sacked back in May when it ended 3-0 to the Mackems. David Moyes will have his side pumped up for this game but let’s be honest they are not very good. This game hits my criteria for a Goal Rush bet. Whether it makes the final cut for this weeks column I am yet to decide so it’s overs or nothing for me here.
