Buy or Sell: Big Ten
If you read the previews, believe the experts, and check the odds it appears the Big Ten is a two horse race. Ohio State and Michigan, at least in the mind of most, have distanced themselves from the rest of the league especially in the East. While I won’t dispute their rightful status as front runners it doesn’t always mean title dreams equate to point spread dominance.
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Undervalued: Michigan State
2015: 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS
Michigan State struggled early in the 2015 season; at least when it came to Vegas expectations starting the year a wallet breaking 0-6 ATS. There were such high expectations for a team led by experienced pivot Connor Cook the market over valued their potential to cover big numbers (remember this for later)
The exact opposite is true of the Spartans headed into 2016. Tyler O’Connor was anointed as Cook’s successor just a day ago. He’ll enter the season having attempted just 24 passes a season ago but was responsible for leading Sparty to an outright upset of Ohio State as a double digit dog. There’s plenty of experience at running back with three guys toting the rock 100+ times last year. However there’s a major void at the WR position and the coaching staff knows they’ll need a gamebreaker to emerge before conference play. The offensive line requires some seasoning without their C and LT however three starters give coach Dantonio enough of a bed rock to build around early.
You don’t just replace three NFL draft choices on the defensive line by waving a magic wand. Malik McDowell, projected starting nose tackle, grades out to All American caliber status and should become the next great defensive lineman in green and white. Aside from the defensive line this stop unit appears stout boasting three linebackers with starting experience and a defensive backfield some are calling the best in the league.
Michigan State has produced double digit win seasons for three straight years. Sparty was 19-8 ATS heading into last year before they struggled in the role of hunted going just 5-9 ATS. Over the last four seasons, when installed as an underdog, Michigan State is 6-1 on the road. Most people have this team slotted behind the conference heavyweights in terms of power profile and with good reason. We’ve seen this program relish the underdog role meaning let other schools steal the headlines while Michigan State gets you the covers.
Overvalued: Michigan
2015: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
If you believe in their current futures price Michigan needs to be mentioned in the same breath as Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State slotting above the likes of Florida State and LSU. Call me skeptical but I’m not ready to buy into Coach Khakis quite this quickly.
Michigan performed admirably as a double digit favorite last year going 6-2 ATS in those eight games. The Wolverines need to replicate this focus considering they’ll be in this same role at minimum four times in their first six games highlighted by a massive tariff (-42) vs Hawaii in the opener.
Quarterback remains a question mark in Ann Arbor with a few talented candidates all vying for the job. Regardless of who takes the reigns they’ll have the services of De’Von Smith to lean on in the backfield. The Wolverines return their top four receivers, three of which had 50+ catches in 2015. On the offensive line it’s never easy to replace a starting center but when nine of 10 players are back on campus it makes the adjustment a bit smoother.
Jourdan Lewis (CB) and Jabrill Peppers (LB) are the big names on the defensive side. There’s plenty of depth on the DL for a group trying to hold opponents under 4 YPC for the fifth straight season. The linebacking core remains a work in progress with the aforementioned Peppers becoming a real x-factor adding athleticism to a thin unit.
Pieces are there for Michigan to make a run at a conference title. I’m not disputing their merits and overall upgraded talent but I am ready to challenge their 7-1 national championship price. Books are onto the Wolverines and will price the team as such especially given a cupcake schedule early where they’ll leave Ann Arbor just once before October 29th. The schedule and talent set up for a special second season under Coach Harbaugh however the ATS record might look more like 2014 (4-8 ATS) even if the Maize and Blue win 10 games for a second straight season.
