Buy or Sell: Pac 12
I don’t remember a year where the Pac 12 felt so wide open going into the season. Conference stalwarts USC and Stanford have grueling schedules while consistent QB play is a major question mark for nearly every team in the league. When a league is ripe for the picking there should be ample opportunity for bettors to profit in the late night Saturday specials.
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Undervalued: Arizona State
2015: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS
Todd Graham hates expectations almost as much as he hates staying put in a coaching gig. Picked by many to contend for conference supremacy last season, ASU fell flat on it’s face behind erratic quarterback play and a porous secondary. This year the Sun Devils are the forgotten squad in the Pac12 South, pegged to finish as an afterthought behind both Southern California powers.
The major question for Arizona State is how quickly new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey develops a quarterback. There’s a lot of talk about ASU utilizing a two QB system early in the season until a front runner emerges. Current options for the role have thrown exactly ZERO passes at the FBS level. Regardless of who wins the job, running backs Demario Richard and Kalen Bellage will be the bell cows running behind an offensive line that could surprise
Defensively there’s only one way to go and it’s up from the 338 yards passing ASU surrendered on a per game basis last year. Despite a rash of injuries throughout fall camp, the unit has some playmakers but will need continuity at the back end before the early season show down with Texas Tech. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of question marks at every level of the defense but if the group gels that’s where we’ll find wagering opportunities on a team many aren’t paying attention to heading into the season.
When nobody’s talking about a team that’s when I’m looking to buy. ASU’s been the definition of mediocrity ATS wise under Todd Graham going 28-26 with the lone profitable campaign coming back in 2012. I’ve always preferred ASU in the underdog role and this season we’ll get plenty of chances to back them in that scenario before books and the public adjust their perceptions.
Overvalued: Washington
2015: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS
I wrote about the Huskies back in February calling them one of the best early lottery tickets you could find when it came to college football futures. Apparently others felt the same way now that the Huskies, once available at 75-1, are now priced as low as 25-1 in some shops. Don’t get me wrong; this team is very good but the odds market shows that and backing them may cost bettors a premium.
There seems to be an awful lot of buzz about a team that finished last season just 7-6 and needed a few late scores to pull away from Southern Miss in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Triplets Jake Browning, Myles Gaskin, and John Ross give the Huskies skill position players capable of going toe to toe with any team in the league. This offense has explosive potential behind a more experienced offensive line.
Defensively the Huskies turned heads last year holding opponents to 3.3 YPC and only 227 yards passing. They have arguably the best defensive line and secondary in the league. Their linebacking core returns Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor, the top two tacklers from 2015. So I know what you’re thinking; not exactly a ringing endorsement for a team we should be looking to fade in 2016 right?
Well here’s the rub; everyone is singing the praises of the Washington Huskies. Major publications can’t heap enough press on a program unfamiliar with high expectations in recent seasons. Washington laid double digits just one time last year against FBS competition. Chris Peterson knows there is a target placed squarely on his team’s back meaning there’s no sneaking up on anyone this season. When teams go from the role of hunter to hunted it takes an adverse affect on their covering ability. I’m not here to dispute Washington as a tough out this year and viable conference champ however I am here to say fading them if they’re going to be priced as a top 5 team offers all sorts of opportunity.
