EPL Round 2
Round 2 of the EPL season kicks off in earnest this weekend. All of the big boys showed their mettle last weekend and we saw what might be the beginning of the end for Leicester City’s title defense. James Kempton is back with his complete analysis of what you need to know before betting this weekend’s fixtures.
Manchester United v Southampton
Manchester United -1 and 2.75 goals
Friday Night Football is here! Southampton have won their last two trips to Old Trafford by a scoreline of 1-0 and the season before that the game finished one apiece. This trip will hold no fears for them given their recent run of success up north. Even though this is the new improved United I can’t offer a bet in this game as let’s face it; if it was not a stand alone live TV game we would not even consider betting at this market price.
Stoke City v Manchester City
Manchester City -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Stoke won this game at the Britannia Stadium 2-0 last season but prior to that the Blues had been unbeaten in their previous six trips to this tricky venue. Last season City fully covered this line just four times away from home and there were signs on opening day that teams fully understand how to stop Guardiola teams from playing the way they’d like. Knowing how to do it and being able to actually fully implement those tactics are a different matter. I want to take Pep’s men on as I’m not sure of his system working in the EPL but this is another game I shall leave alone.
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool -1 and 2.5 goals
There have been at least two goals in each of Liverpool’s last ten away EPL games and nothing we saw last weekend would make us think they won’t score here. I am not a fan of laying a full goal but I am keen to find an angle here as I think I have a pretty good feel for this Reds team. I will turn my attentions to the goals market and take some of the over 2.5 goals. Last season saw sixty five goals in Pool’s twenty games against bottom half placed sides of which thirty four were in their ten trips away from Anfield. Overs all the way for me!
Swansea City v Hull City
Swansea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Swansea were 5-3-2 last season on home soil against sides who finished in the bottom half of the table mustering just eighteen total goals in those ten games. Those trends suggest that the bookmakers have this game priced correctly but I think there is some value on the home team. The Hull players had a full off season to prepare for that big game last week against Leicester. They threw everything at that game and this could be a huge let down game on the road. I lean to the Swans here but my natural distrust of them makes the strength of my lean tentative to say the least.
Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace
Tottenham -1 and 2.5 goals
Palace won their last trip to White Hart Lane 1-0 in the FA Cup back in February. League trips have not been a success though as they have failed to score in the three EPL visits to Spurs since returning to the Premiership in August 2013. Alan Pardew was bemoaning his lack of attacking options after that home defeat and this trip will prove just as difficult for his forward line. Tottenham wants to get off the mark so will take any kind of victory meaning giving up a full goal does not appeal. A pass for me.
Watford v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Watford got off to a decent start at Southampton last Saturday as they managed to gain a point despite being reduced to ten men in the second half. Chelsea left it until late at home vs West Ham before managing to take the win but there were some very encouraging signs for the Blues during the ninety minutes. The fact Chelsea allowed West Ham to remain in the game on Monday Night Football stops me at present from laying more than minus half a goal as the risk/reward is more stacked to the risk side of this potential bet.
West Bromwich Albion v Everton
Draw/No Bet and 2.25 goals
Tony Pulis was delighted with the resilience and strength of character shown by his side in their 1-0 win at Crystal Palace on the opening day of the new campaign. That in itself is a warning sign for them for this game as in the last three seasons West Brom have, on just three occasions, won two games in a row. Last season the Baggies were unable to break down Ronald Koeman’s Southampton in the game at the Hawthornes ending goalless with the return to the south coast ending in a 3-0 home win. Does this functional side struggle against the fluid Koeman style? Until we see the Toffees away from home under Koeman I cannot back them but I do feel they are the only side you can consider taking here.
Leicester City v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.25 and 2.75 goals
Arsenal did the double when the sides met last season; hammering Leicester 5-2 in this meeting of the sides last September. If Arsene Wenger decides to employ some tactics then there is no way Leicester should be able to win this game but the problem is Wenger won’t use any tactics at all! Backing Arsenal outright at any price around or above +140 would seem to be the sensible approach if you were partaking in this betting market.
Sunderland v Middlesbrough
Sunderland -0.25 and 2 goals
The David Moyes era started last weekend for Sunderland and there were some promising signs in the 2-1 loss at the Etihad against Man City. Some things don’t change as a Jermaine Defoe goal can always be relied upon and once again simply his presence in the starting line up could be the difference between them being relegated and staying up. Middlesbrough drew one apiece with Stoke and I’m sure their management team will be glad to have notched some points on the board ahead of this fiercely contested local derby. This will be played at a frenetic pace in a high octane atmosphere and it would not surprise me at all to see this game end all square.
West Ham United Bournemouth
West Ham -0.75 and 2.5 goals
In many ways it was a cruel defeat for West Ham on Monday Night Football but in truth they did not deserve anything from their trip to Stamford Bridge. Bournemouth huffed and puffed last weekend but to no avail as they were comfortably brushed aside 2-1 on home soil by Manchester United. This is the first game in EPL history to be played at the ex-Olympic Stadium. There are question marks in my eyes over both sides this season but if this game had been played at the end of last season I am convinced this line would be West Ham -1 so maybe there is a shade of value on the home team.
