Buy or Sell: SEC
There’s been so much talk in SEC country about Tennessee finally coming of age. The pressure is real in Knoxville for a program seeking a return to glory with 17 starters coming back. When the whole world knows how talented a team is supposed to be on paper, there’s limited betting value. I toyed with putting them as my sell team within the league however I’m drinking the Kool-Aid as well…at least for now. In the west division supremacy appears to be a two horse race between LSU and Alabama (fancy that!). Fortunately for us picking a champion isn’t job number one; it’s identifying teams that aren’t being priced properly by the oddsmakers.
Undervalued: Florida
Last Year: 10-4 SU, 8-5-1 ATS
There’s been so much talk about Tennessee and Georgia as clear cut favorites in the SEC East the Gators have become an afterthought. A tough three game losing skid to close the year doused the optimism Coach McElwain created in his first season. Florida might be flying under the radar now but they’re still defending division champs until proven otherwise.
Defense is the constant for Florida and the unit appears built for more success in 2016. Unfortunately you don’t easily replace a talent like Vernon Hargreaves in the secondary but Jalen Tabor and Marcus Maye are exceptional players capable of putting their stamp on the defensive backfield. Today’s suspension of Tabor for the season opener against UMASS is problematic yet I’ll operate under the assumption this is an isolated incident. Geoff Collins’ job won’t be easy; needing to replace key contributors on the defensive line although returning eight players in that group should alleviate some concern. Losing Antonio Morrison’s 103 tackles could be felt by a thin linebacking core meaning senior Jerrad Davis needs to take the next step in his development.
Luke Del Rio is the odds on favorite to take the reigns as primary pivot in Gainesville. Florida’s offense looked stuck in quick sand only averaging 16.5 PPG the final eight games after Will Grier was suspended. A completely retooled offensive line should make the ground game more potent even without Kelvin Taylor’s 1,100+ rushing yards. Antonio Calloway’s, Florida’s most dynamic plamaker, needs to stay away from the run in’s with marijuana and he could emerge as one of the league’s most versatile big play talents.
Florida won’t compete for a national title; hell they might not be in the thick of the East race come November yet the talent is there for them to be pointspread darlings especially as underdogs while Tennessee and Georgia garner all the buzz.
Overvalued: Ole Miss
Last Year: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS
College kids aren’t immune to distractions. No program’s been under more scrutiny for off field shenanigans this summer than the Ole Miss Rebels.
Chad Kelly is the best quarterback in the SEC, nobody can deny what his talents mean to the Rebels. There’s just one problem; Kelly isn’t surrounded by the same level of offensive talent he had a season ago. Leading rusher Jaylen Walton’s 754 rushing yards are gone. Leading receiver (and NFL draft choice) Laquon Treadwell’s 82 catches and 1153 yards aren’t walking through the Grove this fall either. If losing Treadwell from the passing game wasn’t bad enough Kelly’s second favorite target Cody Core has moved on too. The offensive line needs to be rebuilt and even with better health working in their favor the offensive line returns just 36 career starts worth of experience.
The linebacking core will be the strength of the stop unit with six of nine key contributors back in 2016. The defensive line didn’t experience many defections either but the unit will look substantially different without Robert Nkemdiche clogging the middle. Despite all of the aforementioned concerns it’s the secondary I really worry about this year. It’s not easy to replace talents Trae Elston and Mike Hilton no matter how many other starters return to a unit that struggled for extended stretches last year.
Ole Miss could take the us against the world mentality in 2016; they have a quarterback that can win games with his arm or legs. My problem is the schedule sets up for disaster should the Rebels struggle out of the gates. It’s not unrealistic to see a 1-2 or even a 1-3 start before the calendar flips to October. For a program that’s endured so much turmoil off the field every loss has potential to fracture a fragile psyche. The Rebels are being priced like a top 15 team to start the season; I just don’t see it and they’ll be on my go against list early and often in 2016.
