Buy or Sell: ACC
The ACC kicks off a 5 part CFB series highlighting some of the undervalued and overvalued sides in college football’s power conferences. Winning bets isn’t a beauty pageant and for those that are familiar with the grind the process often leads to unusual places.
Undervalued: Boston College
Last Year: 3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
Steve Addazio’s team had the best defense in the country last year that the casual fan knew nothing about. BC’s inability to move the ball forward through the air or on the ground in league play kept a stop unit surrendering just 15.3 PPG constantly behind the eight ball. The Eagles return 15 starters and add Kentucky graduate transfer Patrick Towles to their QB competition. BC showed modest promise moving the ball against lesser competition early in the year before Darius Wade was lost for the season against Florida State. There’s a ton of depth at the running back position allowing an experienced offensive line to pave the way for clock control. There’s plenty of experience in the trenches but some of the young talent needs to embrace a leadership role.
Defensively there could be an adjustment with defensive coordinator Don Brown’s departure to join Jim Harbaugh’s staff at Michigan. Each of the last two years running against the Eagles was akin to going through a brick considering they’ve surrendered 83 and 94 yards in back to back seasons. Justin Simmons’ presence in the secondary will be sorely missed although the return of eight starters gives bettors plenty to be excited about in Chestnut Hill.
Defensive dogs are always my bread and butter; BC fits the mold. If the offense can be serviceable providing adequate rest for an often taxed stop unit the pieces are there for a pointspread darling. The win ceiling is probably six however asking for a much more successful year of ATS triumphs has them squarely in my crosshairs as a team to back early and often.
Overvalued: Pittsburgh
Last year: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Pat Narduzzi has created plenty of buzz in the Steel City regarding a potential return to prominence for Pittsburgh football. Call me skeptical with so much praise being heaped on a team lacking killer instinct and consistency a season ago. Replacing a player the caliber of Tyler Boyd (91 catches, 926 yards) won’t be easy and he will be the single most difficult player for any team in the league to replace on offense in 2016. Nathan Peterman should show progress under center with his starting status secure but he’s going to need to spread the ball around much more without his primary target. The strength of the offense will be a ground game led by Qadree Ollisson and a potentially healthy James Conner benefitting from an offensive line returning 99 starts.
Defense is Narduzzi’s calling card and pieces are there to improve on the 26.1 PPG. Playmakers can be found at all three levels of the defense although depth is a major concern for the second year head coach.
I just didn’t see enough from Pittsburgh last year to let me believe they’ll turn the corner in 2016. Peterman appeared limited in the passing game against above average opponents, a job that won’t be easier this year without Boyd. There are a lot of people calling for the Panthers to be a sleeper in the ACC; I’m not saying they can’t win seven or eight games however Pittsburgh appears overvalued in the betting market leaving them on my bet against list to kick off the season.
