EPL Round 1
It may have taken some backroom handshakes combined with coaxing and prodding but our EPL Insider James Kempton is back for another season of analysis. For those new to his column Jimmy shares his thoughts on every single fixture of the EPL season each week during the season. We’ll also be carrying his podcast on the site as well to get you ready for all the top flight domestic league analysis you can handle until a champion is crowned.
Arsenal v Liverpool
Arsenal -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Twelve of the last thirteen EPL meetings between these two sides have seen at least two goals. The exception though was last season’s goalless draw in this fixture. Liverpool have registered just one win in the last fifteen years at the Emirates, back in August 2011. However, the Gunners appear to have a lot of defensive issues going into this opening day encounter. This line opened -0.5 to Arsenal but such is the concern for the home side it has trended down to -0.25. Even after the move that price still does not appeal to me. Over the past five seasons Arsenal are just 4-7-6 on home soil when priced above a level of +110 so give me a small piece of the away team plus a quarter of a goal.
AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United
Man Utd -0.75 and 2.5 goals
The Special One starts on the south coast but last year it was the Cherries who won this match up between the teams 2-1. Their south coast home was not a fortress though with Bournemouth only going 5-5-9 on home soil, compiling the second worst home record in the EPL last season ahead of only Aston Villa. That loss last season here for United was part of a 3-2-5 record when traveling to bottom half placed sides. With the line opening -0.5 but moving to -0.75 I can’t see much value on the away team here. One to take a watching brief on and use the knowledge gained for future weeks.
Burnley v Swansea City
Scratch and 2.25 goals
Sean Dyche’s men begin their second EPL journey this week at home to a Swansea side that won just four times on the road last season. There are many games this season that Burnley has pinpointed as excellent opportunities to earn three points. Whether they are on day one or day thirty eight of the season they need to seize the chances when they present themselves. Last season Swansea were just 1-3-3 on the road at sides who finished in the bottom third of the table so the Clarets will be very confident of at least avoiding defeat. I will just take a small piece of the draw at any price over +200 in this game.
Chelsea v West Ham United
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Antonio Conte welcomes a West Ham side led by Slavan Bilic for his first EPL game in charge at Stamford Bridge. Last season Chelsea were unable to beat West Ham as this match finished two apiece with West Ham running out 2-1 winners at Upton Park. Having watched Italy this summer though I think it is safe to assume that Chelsea will not be shipping two goals in many matches during this new EPL campaign. The signing of Kante from Leicester is huge for the Blues and his speed in closing opposing players down will be a huge asset for the style Conte seeks from his midfield. The line opened Chelsea -1 but it’s now moved to -0.75 which does make the home side a little more appealing. I quite like the home team here to take all three points but the three quarter goal handicap line does not offer much value. All bets on the Blues should be limited to a Straight Up nature.
Crystal Palace v West Bromwich Albion
Crystal Palace -0.5 and 2.25 goals
All football fans on the opening day of the season venture to watch their chosen team with a renewed sense of hope and expectation for what the season has to offer them. In truth though, what can either of these teams actually achieve? When taking on fellow bottom half placed sides last season Palace were 6-6-6 and West Brom were 6-5-7. Let’s be honest both sides will finish in the bottom half of the table and last seasons trends, coupled with no huge player turnover or managerial changes, suggest that plus half a goal is a must bet on the away dog. Can you really trust West Brom away from home on day one of the season? I will leave it but the away team plus half a goal is the only bet you should consider making.
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Five of the last six meetings of the two sides have ended with an under 2.5 goals bet landing. Spurs have not lost any of the last seven EPL match ups. Both games ended all square last season with this fixture ending one apiece. This match will see two former Southampton managers heading off face to face on opening day. After the debacle of the 2015-16 season Goodison Park faithful will welcome Ronald Koeman with open arms and the likeable Dutchman will be taken into the hearts of the Everton fans if he can rekindle form of their most talented players. Trusting Spurs on the road giving up a quarter of goal may be the sort of bet that some of you may want to make but it’s not one that interests me on opening day.
Hull City v Leicester City
Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals
The Champions start away to Hull and this would have been a far more difficult fixture if Steve Bruce had still been at the helm of the Tigers. Hull are a shambles of a club and there is no better time for anyone, let alone Leicester, to travel to the KC Stadium. The loss of Kante to Chelsea is a massive blow for Leicester as they cannot even come close to replacing the impact he had on this side. However, this is one of those sorts of games that they relish where they can sit off and hit Hull on the break. The home team plus half a goal appeals slightly to me but a small back of the draw on the outright market may prove to be more profitable.
Manchester City v Sunderland
Man City -1.75 and 3 goals
Pep Guardiola could not have a better game to open up with as the trends suggest they will have an easy afternoon against Sunderland. Over 2.5 goals is 8-0 in the last eight meetings of the sides in all competitions with over 3.5 goals going 7-1. Last season Man City were 9-1-0 when taking on bottom half placed sides at the Etihad, scoring thirty goals and conceding just four times. Interestingly the one draw in that spot was at home to Everton and that Everton team contained much of the David Moyes influence from a defensive perspective. With a hunger to please their new manager in front of an expectant home crowd I do not expect City to struggle. Whether you can suggest they are value laying this sort of handicap is a different question though. With a goal line set at three I cannot even suggest a bet on the overs here. At the current market lines and prices another watching brief should be employed here.
Middlesbrough v Stoke City
Middlesbrough -0.25 and 2 goals
As it is opening day and the bookmakers are unsure of what we shall see they initially hung this goal line at 2.25 but it was quickly bet down to just two goals. Whenever I see such a low goal line I look at ways in which I can try and take the overs but here sadly I cannot. I sense you want to take positions that keep the draw well and truly on your side. I shall be taking a small piece of the draw outright as part of my opening day strategy of backing the draw in the three newly promoted teams’ matches.
Southampton v Watford
Southampton -0.5 and 2.25 goals
The Saints won this match 2-0 last season and the return fixture ended goalless. It may be hard for the Hornets to find the net in this fixture. There has been a managerial change at both clubs this summer but only at Southampton was the change actually necessary. Ronald Koeman will be missed but the clubs hierarchy have a proven track record of making a seamless transition to the next man up. There is only so much turmoil a club can take every year and I have a feeling we have reached that point at Watford. Are Southampton under a new manager value giving up half a goal on opening day? I am not entirely sure but I certainly won’t be trusting the away team.
