Time for Change
Sports betting is an evolving industry. Las Vegas is is the epicenter for legalized wagering in this country and the business model often becomes resistant to changes taking place at progressive books around the world given their statewide monopoly . However the influx of mobile apps and increased competition among large operators for share of wallet means the time for change is here.
Sportsbooks strive to create extensive wagering menus allowing bettors to keep their money in play around the clock. With ingenuity comes record betting handles leading to an industry that’s healthier than ever in 2016. However some books (not all) still lag behind the times hiding their lackluster bookmaking acumen and laziness by utilizing price gouging for feasting on customers. While it’s always a shame to let a sucker keep his money the industry as a collective needs to offer a competitive and transparent product.
Here are 4 things I’d like to see change as we head into the home stretch before football season.
Maximum Hold for Futures
I’ve always been critical of how certain books handle this particular element of sports betting. Radio hosts and TV personalities always want to discuss futures meaning there’s nothing more embarrassing than sharing ridiculous numbers with the general public (I had to do it firsthand with my previous employer).
My problem with futures is they already give the house a sizable advantage over recreational bettors than certain books in Vegas create an even more ridiculous hold percentage for themselves. For those unfamiliar with the terminology hold percentage refers to the theoretical amount of money the house keeps on every dollar wagered. The lower the hold, the better for the player. I see way too many books taking more than 50 cents on the dollar from their customers and it drives me insane. There’s absolutely no excuse for this to ever happen unless pools haven’t been structured correctly.
Offer players a competitive product; put the time in to shade teams you feel other casinos might be over valuing or under valuing. NASCAR is the sport that really takes it on the chin with this brutal practice. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve walked into prominent joints on the strip to see hold percentages well over 60% on race day because operators don’t raise odds on certain drivers when they’re lowering them on others. Ultimately I’d love to see the gaming control board get involved with periodic auditing like they do for tables and slots forcing casinos to adhere to a minimum standard. Hopefully as word spreads about the ongoing problem the biggest industry culprits will change their ways when they say business volumes tail off.
(I’ll have a city wide survey posted for NFL and CFB holds later this week)
Competitive Soccer Pricing
Soccer is the fastest growing sport in this country. I don’t need numbers to back up my argument considering I get more questions about European domestic leagues than I ever imagined years ago. The obvious byproduct of increased tv coverage and fan interest is a desire to have a little skin in the game. Herein lies the rub; most bookmakers don’t care to learn the correct way to book soccer nor offer customers a semblance of fair value.
The two most traditional ways to bet soccer are on the 2 way line and 3 way line (for this argument I’ll avoid the Asian handicap). In a two way market it’s a pointspread akin to any other we see in major sports making it easy to grasp for novice bettors. Typically you’ll see books using a .30 cent line in these instances around town but the conscientious shopper can find .20 cent offerings if he or she is willing to shop. Two way markets are fine; books move the line in normal fashion based on dollars wagered or what they see transpiring in the market.
My biggest issue with soccer wagering in this city is books electing to just use the 3 way line. A 3 way soccer line is a lazy bookmaker’s best friend. Rather than electing to move Team A, Team B, and Draw at the same time they raise the price on just one of the three options. All of a sudden a 5% hold wager creeps as high as 10% (or higher) in some locations. It drives me crazy to see this for any games involving the US National Team. Books obviously get flooded with homer money and instead of offering a more intriguing bet on draw or the opposition just decide to raise Team USA’s price. I saw the worst example of this during the Gold Cup when USA went from -110 to -150 at one book while prices on Costa Rica and draw remained the same. Don’t cry to me about liability or balancing books when you aren’t willing to give consumers a fair shake. Here’s a quick example from an upcoming EPL match of how quickly the math would change if only one outcome’s price is adjusted.
Opening Line: Leicester City +110 / Hull City +270 / Draw +230 = 4.72%
Now if a book takes a lot of public money like you’d expect on the EPL champs yet doesn’t move Hull or Draw the house edge changes substantially
Adjusted Line: Leicester City -110 / Hull City +270 / Draw +230 = 8.85%
All of a sudden what was a fair bet becomes a very different proposition when the public side is adjusted by 20 cents. Whether it’s laziness or calculated greed there’s no place for this in the market. At this rate it’s just a matter of time before one book decides to charge -115 for both sides of a NFL game too hoping customers aren’t paying attention.
Extensive Live Betting Options
Making this wish of mine a reality will take some time. With the increased availability of apps it’s just a matter of time before live wagering gains a stronger foothold. Throughout Europe in game wagering represents a substantially larger piece of the pie than pre match bets do on soccer games. American sports may not translate as well to live betting as soccer but football, baseball, basketball, and hockey all get that much more exciting when you have a chance to enter the betting market at any point. Live wagering on a larger scale wasn’t feasible in Nevada until mobile gaming gained momentum. Given where we’re at now this seems like the next big domino to fall if statewide handle is to continue surging
Development of young staff
Consolidation of sportsbooks has created a bottleneck. There are so few high profile jobs in the city my feeling is that young talent in the industry struggle to find a career path. Everyone that’s worked in the field knows that if you’re looking to make investment banking type money as a bookmaker that’s never going to happen. However what usually happens at various books (not all) is the next generation of talent can’t forge a clearly defined career path.
Other departments in the casino business allow college graduates to start as analysts work into manager roles before becoming directors, VP’s, and maybe even general managers. The sportsbook side of things doesn’t offer the same path. Figureheads of the major books have earned their stripes and they’re not about to let a good thing go after 5 or 10 years in a given post (Vegas shelf life > NFL running backs). With increased handle and revenues industry wide, hopefully more talent stays behind the counter seeking to push the industry forward rather than abandoning their dreams after a few short years in the field. There’s no minor league system for bookies but we can only hope the industry we all love so much trains the next great generation of bookmakers for when their number eventually gets called.
