Preakness
He made magic for us in the Derby like he’s done so many years before we’re getting spoiled around here. KyDerbyJay returns for the second jewel of the Triple Crown with comprehensive analysis of the 11 horse field at Pimlico.
1 — Cherry Wine – Was an also-entry for the Derby, but failed to draw into the race. Solid jockey/trainer combo of Lanerie/Romans alone merits a look. Third last out in the Bluegrass Stakes to Derby also-ran Brody’s Cause. Would need to take a major step forward to have a shot here, but in a race where looking for contenders for the bottom part of exotics is no easy task, he could offer significant value with a ground-saving rail trip.
2 — Uncle Lino – Half-brother to Nyquist, and that’s likely where the comparisons stop. Looked good winning last out at Los Alamitos, but not sure that he faced too much. Should be the early leader, but seems unlikely he will have it easy, and figures to succumb to Nyquist by the top of the stretch, beginning a descent to the back of the pack.
3 — Nyquist – Prohibitive favorite who will run away with it if he runs anything close to his typical race. Pace scenario seems advantageous and he’s just more talented and faster than the majority of these here. The #3 post is totally ideal, and could offer the only scenario that sees him falter if he gets squeezed back at the start, and finds himself a lot farther off the lead than he is used to. That possibility aside, he figures to be racing at Belmont in three weeks with a Triple Crown on the line.
4 — Awesome Speed – Winner via DQ of the Federico Tesio last out over the Pimlico oval, so offers the home-team advantage, which sometimes provides some long-shot boom to trifectas. Not willing to count him out for that possibility here, but still needs to take a step forward to rank with just the middle of the pack in this field.
5 — Exaggerator – Fifth times the charm? Look, there is no doubt this is a very good colt, but what tells anyone that after finishing behind Nyquist four times, that the Preakness will be the different result? Seems very much the second best among this field, but there aren’t many signs pointing to a reversal of fortune; if anything, today’s probable pace scenario seems to be leaning strongly against that possibility.
6 — Lani – Besides the top two choices, this is the only other entry in the field that ran in the Kentucky Derby. I guess his Japanese connections want to soak up all the pageantry of the Triple Crown, because I’m not sure there was a particularly compelling reason to enter him here otherwise. That said, he still looks to be as talented as most of the other also-rans here, and is certainly eligible for a bit of improvement. Not going to be a surprise at all to see him 3rd or 4th.
7 — Collected – Strong connections in Baffert/Castellano, he’s my top choice among the new shooters. Has three stakes wins, included last out at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes. Seems to have pointed specifically for the Preakness, a tactic with which Baffert has a had a mixed bag of success in the past. Could wind up third choice on tote board, so may not offer proper value, but seems to be most capable of these at pulling off an upset.
8 — Laoban – Also a half-brother to Nyquist, also not very comparable otherwise. This one is still a maiden, and looks way in over his head. First Preakness horse for trainer Eeric Guillot, a personal fave of mine, and I wish him luck. But he won’t be getting any of my wagering dollars.
9 — Abiding Star – Another half-brother to Nyquist! Are we sensing a pattern here…Uncle Mo a very popular stallion right now. Nevertheless, this guy may be even more of a longshot than his winless relative next door. He’s won five in a row, sure…but against very suspect competition at Laurel and Parx. Figures to need a fairly mammoth step forward to get in the mix here, and that seems unlikely.
10 — Fellowship – Finished fourth on the Derby Day undercard last out in the Pat Day Mile, which doesn’t seem to be much of a prep for moving forward in the Preakness, but definitely has back class with three consecutive third-place finishes in graded stakes at Gulfstream this winter, including the Florida Derby, closing late in each of them. Could very easily be the one making the most noise from the back of the pack, and crashing the exotics at a square price is certainly a realistic possibility.
11— Stradivari – Among the new shooters, he seems to be collecting the most accolades, and has the feel of the Preakness wise-guy horse. The Pletcher/Johnny V connections are strong, and he’s flashed some major speed early in his career, winning his last two races by a combined 25 lengths. But this is just his fourth career start, and first stakes race. It’s pretty clear that most of the other Preakness hopefuls aren’t fast enough to beat Nyquist. As I said earlier this guy is very fast. Whether or not he’s got the seasoning and maturity to knock off Nyquist, however, is a completely different question. Seems like one to watch the toteboard on, and I’m leaning towards a bit of regression.
The skinny:
Nyquist will win this race if he runs to form, I have little doubt about that. Exaggerator is clearly the second most talented colt here, but I see Fellowship with a late move for second. Exaggerator a clear third, with Collected edging Stradivari and Cherry Wine for fourth. Good luck to all!
1-Nyquist
2-Fellowship
3-Exaggerator
4-Collected
