Championship Sunday

It’s the final Sunday of the Premier League season and unfortunately it comes with less drama than we’ve grown accustomed to recently.  Heart felt thank you to James Kempton for yet again providing awesome analysis every week of the season yet again.  His insight and analysis is second to none when it comes to game capsules on each weekend fixture.  Let’s hope we can land him here on the site for yet another season.  Feel free to step into his mentions and goad him into some EuroCup analysis as well!!!

Arsenal v Aston Villa
Arsenal -2.25 and 3.5 goals

The curtain falls on another wretched season full of disappointment and fan anger. It’s not been much better for Aston Villa either! Arsenal have won the last four meetings of the sides to nil by a total of 14-0 which funnily enough is the score that they would need to win by here, if Spurs draw at Newcastle, to finish second. This market and goal line is comparable to the lines we saw with the Luis Suarez led Liverpool side of a couple of seasons ago. Olivier Giroud is no Suarez! I can’t stomach the away team even with the huge start they receive but happy for a little piece of the unders.

Chelsea v Leicester City
Chelsea -0.25 and 2.75 goals

If the sight of Andrea Bocelli singing for Claudio Ranieri turned you to tears then get ready for a repeat as there will be an enormous amount of love shown for the ‘Tinker Man’ at Stamford Bridge. It’s hard to assess the drive and determination of the Foxes given the outpouring of emotion last weekend when they received the trophy. I will repeat though what I’ve said on numerous occasions this season, nothing that we have seen so far suggests they will take a game off. From a match up perspective they are ideally suited to take on this slow one paced Chelsea team. In truth one to avoid for me…

Everton v Norwich City
Everton -0.5 and 3 goals

It was one apiece earlier this season at Carrow Road and there have been an amazing six draws in the eight total meetings of the sides since December 2011. Yes on BTTS is 7-1, with four 1-1 draws and one victory apiece for each side. Norwich were relegated despite that midweek win over Watford and at one point this this game seemed set to be played in a poisonous Goodison Park atmosphere. Roberto Martinez is no more so at kick off we enter the post Martinez era and a Norwich farewell party. I see this to be a very open encounter and even with a goal line set at three I’m still a buyer of the over.

Manchester United v Bournemouth
Man Utd -1.5 and 2.75 goals

Its almost a slow motion divorce that United are having with LVG. Nobody is happy and we can all see the way that it will end. The Cherries won 2-1 when the teams met back in mid December on the south coast and I think they could cause the home team problems in this game. United have covered this line just six times in thirty seven league games and despite strong recent form just once in their last thirteen EPL outings. Give me Bournemouth in this one.

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs -0.5 and 2.75 goals

Five straight EPL away wins when these sides meet suggests that Spurs should have the upper hand in this match. It’ll be a strange atmosphere at St James’ Park as although their is anger at their demise none of this is directed at Rafa Benitez and his staff. You have to say the value is with the away team to get that second place nailed down but you have to consider one point. Unless we see a miraculous fourteen goal victory by Arsenal (although they do play Aston Villa) Spurs only need a point from this game to finish second so tread with caution.

Southampton v Crystal Palace
Southampton -1.25 and 2.75 goals

Palace have won both meetings of the sides so far this season as they followed up their 1-0 league win with a 2-1 FA Cup Third Round win on the south coast that set them on their journey to Wembley. Prior to that though Southampton had done a league double over the past two seasons. Southampton are rolling of late as they are 6-1-1 in their last eight games and have scored nineteen goals in those matches. Palace have that Wembley final on their mind so their players will be focused as cup final places remain at stake. In view of that I lean to the away team.

Stoke City v West Ham United
West Ham -0.25 and 2.75 goals

This is a tough game to assess as Stoke have been so inconsistent in recent weeks. West Ham are coming off of that memorable final night at Upton Park, although they may want to forget that dreadful closing ceremony, when they beat Man Utd. At the beginning of the season if you said West Ham would be a favourite on the road to a top half placed team you’d have been told to go lie down in a cold room! But it’s happened and who can argue that it’s justified, I just won’t be betting it. Especially as West Ham have won just two of the last eleven EPL match ups of the sides.

Swansea City v Manchester City
Man City -1.25 and 3.25 goals

The Swans’ boss appears to be in high demand from other suitors and who can argue given their recent performances which culminated in that fantastic 4-1 spanking of West Ham last Saturday. Man City have won the last five meetings of the teams, scoring at least twice in each game and netting no fewer than fourteen times needing this win to cement a top four space. The City players have really let Manuel Pellegrini down in recent weeks and if they want to prove they like him as much as they say they do then they will win this game comfortably. Talk is cheap though and I can’t trust the Blue side of Manchester in this spot. I lean to the home team but with no real conviction.

Watford v Sunderland
Watford -0.25 and 2.5 goals

Watford won 1-0 up at the Stadium of Light in December but in recent weeks they’ve hit the wall prompting the club to part ways with Quique Sánchez Flores. Earlier in the season if they’d have scored twice in a game like they did in midweek at Norwich it would have been good enough for three points. However, that early season defensive strength has evaporated as they conceded four at Norwich on Wednesday night hot on the heels of conceding twice at home against a horrific Aston Villa team. Sunderland are safe now though so who knows what kind of performance levels Big Sam will get out of his team. Watford have won just two of their last eleven whilst the Mackems do have some confidence coming into this game. Maybe a shade of value on the away team but not a lot.

West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool
PK and 2.75 goals

I questioned the motivation of Tony Pulis’ side for their trip to Bournemouth last time out. We needn’t have worried though as they applied themselves admirably and if they’d not missed a penalty when leading 1-0 then they would probably have won the game rather than surrendering that lead to. It was 2-2 at Anfield earlier this season and Liverpool have won just four of the last eleven EPL meetings of the teams. It’s 11-4 to over 2.5 goals in Liverpool’s last fifteen EPL games and their focus is clearly on that Europa League final. All the value is with the home win and overs.