Kentucky Derby
He’s one of the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the triple crown races. We’re thankful to bring him back yet again this year to offer his comprehensive analysis of every single horse in the field highlighted by his official picks and a few match-ups worth investing in come race day.
1) Trojan Nation —
Trying to become first horse to break his maiden with Derby win in over 80 years. Seems highly unlikely. Did run gamely in the Wood, but don’t think that was much of a field. Don’t see anything to recommend.
2) Suddenbreakingnews —
The Arkansas Derby runner-up could offer some value to the back end of exotic tickets, as he’s likely to be doing his best running late. Think he’s a bit behind the top players, but is one to keep an eye on.
3) Creator —
The Arkansas Derby winner is another who should be flying in the lane. Trackside reports have been raving about this guy has been training, and he’s eligible to take a big step forward. Could it be enough to grab the roses?
4) Mo Tom —
Was well beaten last out in the Louisiana Derby, and would need to make a major improvement just to hit the board here. Don’t like his chances at all.
5) Gun Runner —
Winner of 4 of 5 races, including last out in an impressive Louisiana Derby performance. Seems to have the tactical style and an advantageous post position that can put him in a strong position to win this race. I expect this guy to be ready for a career-best effort in his third start of the season, and is a major contender for the win.
6) My Man Sam —
Bluegrass runner-up is another that will be running late, but seems slower than the other deep closers.
7) Oscar Nominated —
Supplemented for $200,000 by owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, this one is yet another son of Kitten’s Joy for the Ramseys in the Derby; will likely meet the same fate as the others.
8) Lani —
UAE Derby winner ships in for his Japanese connections. Could win a big one down the road, but it’s not going to be on Saturday.
9) Destin —
Big son of Giant’s Causeway has been off since besting a weak field in the Tampa Bay Derby. Strong connections in Pletcher/Castellano can’t be easily dismissed. I think he’s a contender for a piece, but not the top prize.
10) Whitmore —
Well beaten by Creator & Suddenbreakingnews in the Arkansas Derby; would need a big improvement to turn the tables on those two, much less other strong ones. Pass.
11) Exaggerator —
Son of Curlin is a big player. Was absolutely dominant over a sloppy track in the Santa Anita, and has shown that he was serious acceleration. Is certainly among the crew that will be trying to run down Nyquist in the final furlong, and has to be considered a top contender.
12) Tom’s Ready —
Was well-beaten 2nd in Louisiana Derby, but has been working very well since that one. Still, doesn’t appear to have pace and speed on his side, and I don’t think Tom is indeed ready to win this one.
13) Nyquist —
Deserving favorite, has done nothing wrong, and Florida Derby win was obviously a thing of beauty. Only question mark is how fast the pace will be, and how will be hold up in that final furlong, when a gaggle of talented closers are trying to run him down. I’m leaning towards him getting passed before the wire, but certainly won’t be surprised if he’s in the winner’s circle.
14) Mohaymen —
Was looming as the favorite for this race before turning up a real clunker in the Florida Derby. Hard to erase that memory, and I’m taking a hard pass on this one.
15) Outwork —
Winner of a weak Wood Memorial is likely to be fighting with Nyquist for the lead early, and that seems like a death sentence. Candidate to finish last in my opinion.
16) Shagaf —
Beaten favorite in Wood was exposed in that race. Going to need an improvement of leaps and bounds to have any chance here.
17) Mor Spirit —
Has to be respected on basis of Baffert connections alone. Couldn’t handle Exaggerator in Santa Anita Derby, but we’ve seen Baffert horses fail at Santa Anita, and come back to turn the tables in Kentucky in the past. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, but question is whether he is as fast as some of the others. Ignore Baffert at Churchill Downs at your own peril.
18) Majesto —
My favorite longshot in the field. Is improving at the right time, and while he was certainly well-beaten by Nyquist in the Florida Derby, he certainly looked quite game in finishing second. Post position 18 should keep him out of trouble early, and will be flying late. I don’t think he’s in Gun Runner or Exaggerator’s class, but can win this one with a dream trip.
19) Brody’s Cause —
Has that feel of a wiseguy horse. Had a nice two-year-old campaign, then ran a huge clunker at Tampa Bay. Rebounded to win the Bluegrass, but have to question exactly whether he beat much that day. I don’t doubt that he can stay the ten-furlong trip, but I question whether he’s fast enough.
20) Danzig Candy —
Seems likely to be forced to gun to the front from the 20 hole, and that seems like a death sentence.
The skinny: So, I don’t think there’s any doubt that Nyquist will be on the lead turning for home. How the rest of the race shapes up depends on how contested the pace is. If he’s been allowed to get the first mile fairly slowly, I expect he will win. But I don’t see that happening. Rather, I see Nyquist tiring in the final furlong, and I think he will be passed by Gun Runner and Exaggerator. I think Gun Runner crosses the wire, and he is my selection to win the 143rd Kentucky Derby.
1-Gun Runner
2-Exaggerator
3-Nyquist
4-Majesto
Recommended matchup plays:
Exaggerator -125 vs Mohaymen
Gun Runner -110 vs Mohaymen
Majesto -105 vs Shagaf
