EPL Weekend
The championship drama might be over with Tottenham’s collapse on Monday but there are still money making opportunities with the remaining fixtures. James Kempton is here to finish out the grind with complete betting analysis of every weekend match-up.
Norwich City v Manchester United
Man United -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Norwich had that famous 2-1 victory at Old Trafford when the sides met on the Saturday before Christmas. Prior to that though United had registered four successive victories to nil against the Canaries. Norwich are just 2-4-7 against the top third and they’ve failed to score in six of those thirteen games. United have a mixed record against the bottom third teams as they are 6-3-5 in this spot. In a game that offers minimal betting appeal I’d probably lean to the under 2.5 goals as United are sure to make sure the back door is shut before they attempt to unlock the front door.
Aston Villa v Newcastle United
Newcastle -0.75 and 2.5 goals
It was 1-1 earlier this season when the sides met in the north east and that continued a run that has seen the last four meetings of the sides go under 2.5 goals and three of those went under the total. Newcastle are unbeaten in the last nine EPL meetings of the teams and it’s hard to make a case for them breaking that sequence here. Newcastle are 2-2-14 on the road and have a goal difference of -29 on their travels yet are priced as -0.75 favourites. Given those trends it’s hard to back this Newcastle side to win away from home…….unless they are playing Aston Villa. Greater need and greater desire makes players run further, tackle harder, and fight like lions. Games between the poorest sides in this league are mainly settled by those factors. Newcastle for me.
Bournemouth v West Bromwich Albion
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.5 goals
It was 2-1 to the Cherries in December at the Hawthornes and they also won a Capital One Cup game by the same scoreline on home soil last season. The sides have similar records in this spot as the Cherries are 7-6-4 against bottom half teams whilst WBA are 6-4-7 record in this situation. Tony Pulis led teams in dead rubber games are a hard team to assess. So why bother? Just move on to the next game.
Crystal Palace v Stoke
Palace -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Palace won an FA Cup meeting of the sides 1-0 at Selhurst Park back at the end of January to accompany their 2-1 league win at Stoke just before Christmas. Palace also won 2-1 at the Britannia Stadium in the league last year with this game ending 1-1 so recent history favours the Eagles. Palace are an indifferent 6-6-6 though when facing bottom half teams whereas Stoke are a strong 7-4-4 when facing bottom third placed teams. I had this game priced up at either a PK or Palace -0.25 so I’m happy to take a chance on Mark Hughes’ men plus half a goal. Palace are not a free scoring side so Stoke should always be within striking distance in this game. Stoke +0.5 for small stakes.
Sunderland v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.25 and 2.75 goals
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last eleven EPL trips to the Stadium of Light with Sunderland’s last victory in this fixture being a 1-0 win in October 2000. The Mackems are a poor 2-5-12 against top half teams and they’ve not scored in eight of those matches. Chelsea are 9-3-3 against the bottom third and have failed to score in just two of those matches. There will be a big atmosphere for this game and the home crowd will really get behind their team. Last season this game was priced at Chelsea -1.25 so have the Blues deteriorated so badly and does the need of the home team justify a full goal adjustment? You look at stats and trends so much that sometimes you forget the eye test and Chelsea are just not very good. They may have rallied on Monday night for that big game against Spurs but in all honesty they are five or six players away from challenging for the major trophies. If you believe in the trends and the over adjusted lines then you have to back Chelsea. I’m not sure I can though as we may see Chelsea revert to their season long type performance in this one.
West Ham United v Swansea City
West Ham -1 and 2.5 goals
It was goalless when the sides met back on the Sunday before Christmas and that continued a run that has seen Swansea not win any of the last six meetings of the two teams. Their only ever EPL victory over the Hammers was their first, a 3-0 win in August 2012. Under 2.5 goals is 5-2 in those seven meetings of the two teams with the Swans netting just once in their three trips to Upton Park. It’s hard to make a case for the outright away win here as the Hammers are 8-8-3 against the bottom half whilst the Swans are 4-4-10 when taking on top half placed teams. Swansea have failed to score in eight of those eighteen matches as they struggle to find a way to breach the oppositions backline when facing the better teams. Even given the Welsh sides problems on the road this season I can’t take the Hammers minus a full goal. Will they already be thinking ahead to that emotional last game at Upton Park this upcoming midweek against Man United? A pass for me.
Leicester City v Everton
Leicester -0.5 and 2.75 goals
Leicester won 3-2 in December at Goodison Park and that victory was one of the first times that people really began to jump on the Leicester Title Express Train. Both matches last season finished 2-2. Leicester are a strong 8-1-1 when they play middle third opposition and they have conceded just seven goals in those ten games. Everton are an atrocious 1-5-7 when facing top top third placed teams but they have only conceded nineteen goals in those thirteen matches. On the road they’ve been solid and how much do the Foxes want to go out with a bang in this game? I think they will as this is a team who doesn’t know how to quit, lie down or not take a game seriously. There is good value with Leicester here against this pretty spineless Everton side as looking at this line it appears the books think Leicester have been in the pub since Monday night!.
Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
Spurs -0.5 and 2.5 goals
Since Southampton returned to the EPL in the 2012-13 season Tottenham have won six and there has been one draw in the seven meetings of the sides. Spurs lost the plot on Monday night, albeit baited by a Chelsea crowd and actions by Chelsea players, and they paid the ultimate price. They are conscious though of local rivals Arsenal pulling up close behind them in the table and I’m sure this young side will bounce back sooner rather than later. Despite a potential hangover for the home team it is Spurs I lean to minus half a goal.
Liverpool v Watford
Liverpool -1.25 and 3 goals
Watford won 3-0 when the teams met just before the festive season in a game which saw a huge amount of money wagered at silly low prices on Liverpool. Liverpool are 9-5-4 against the bottom half of the table and those eighteen games have seen sixty one total goals. Watford are just 3-3-13 against the top half placed teams and have conceded just twenty nine goals in those nineteen matches. However, it’s a big first half/second half split to the season for the Hornets from a defensive perspective. They kept eight clean sheets in their first nineteen EPL games but their second set of seventeen matches has seen them pitch just three shut outs. They were away at shot shy West Brom, and at home to Bournemouth and a transitional Chelsea side. I like Liverpool to win and cover in this game as they turn their attentions to League action now until the end of the campaign.
Manchester City v Arsenal
Man City -0.25 and 2.75 goals
What a game this could have been just two matches before the end of the season! Alas no. Arsenal have won three and drawn two of the last five meetings of the sides but they are a club at civil war! It’s clear for all to see where City’s title hopes have been vanquished this season and it’s their performance in these types of games. City are a terrible 1-3-7 against the top third teams and that is only good enough for the sixteenth best record in this spot. Arsenal are 4-4-3 in this same spot and the sides’ twenty two combined games have seen no fewer than seventy two total goals. I’m surprised to see City that favoured for this game as their season long performance in these spots shows that defensively they struggle against the better teams in the league. They are also coming off of that meek defeat in Madrid on Wednesday night so all the value is with the beleaguered and under pressure Arsene Wenger led side but back them at your own risk.
