EPL Preview
The season continues to wind down and Leicester City has a chance to finish the impossible dream on Sunday. A club flirting with relegation just a season ago is damn near close to finishing the season atop the Premier League table having opened the season with odds as high as 5000-1. This is why we love sport; just when we think we’ve seen it all something beyond our realm of comprehension unfolds. Jimmy is back to provide analysis on every single weekend fixture
Everton v Bournemouth
Everton -0.5 and 2.75 goals
The style with which Roberto Martinez managed teams play requires a huge amount of bravery and confidence from his players and that will be a problem this weekend. Patience is running thin at Goodison Park and every pass that goes astray will be met with howls of derision. Bournemouth travel north in party mood knowing the beaches of their summer holidays are within touching distance. Give me the away side to put a good showing in at what’ll be a nervous tense and fractious atmosphere on Merseyside. Bournemouth all the way for me.
Newcastle v Crystal Palace
Newcastle -0.5 and 2.5 goals
This is a massive game for Newcastle and after recent positive showings they should be very confident of getting a result here. Alan Pardew will want his side to put in a good performance traveling to his old stomping ground but surely their attentions are beginning to turn to that FA Cup Final. This should be a very tactical encounter as Pardew is in many way very similar to Rafa Benitez in how he sets his teams up. Give me a piece of the under 2.5 goals in this game as a pretty solid looking proposition.
Stoke City v Sunderland
PK and 2.25 goals
Sunderland won 2-0 at the Stadium of Light earlier this season and this is a real opportunity for them to gain an important three points in their bid for survival. Stoke have conceded four times in each of their last three EPL games. This line jumps out at you as surely it is a must bet on the home team as Sunderland have won just three of seventeen on the road yet are priced a PK bet? However, those recent poor results for Stoke and the huge need of the away team makes this a complete stay away from a betting perspective.
Watford v Aston Villa
Watford -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Watford won 3-2 at Villa Park back at the end of November but their season is now over after that FA Cup Semi Final loss at the hands of Crystal Palace last Sunday. It will be interesting to see whether they can lift themselves for the visit of this inept Aston Villa team. The visitors have lost five straight on the road and have managed just two goals in their last eight away games so I’m shocked that this line is not set at minus a full goal. Villa have no pride whilst the Hornets will be looking to put in a good shaping on home soil as the season draws to a close. I love the home win here as they are a far better and far hungrier side than the visitors.
West Bromwich Albion v West Ham United
West Ham -0.25 and 2.25 goals
It was one apiece when the sides met for the first time this campaign back in November and I can see this game also finishing all square. There has only been one away win, West Ham’s in this fixture last season, in the last twelve meetings of the sides. This will be a keenly fought game as we saw on Monday night the resilience of the Baggies whilst West Ham are still fighting hard for a European spot. Those historical trends should be enough to put you off backing the away team laying a quarter of a goal and I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing the draw outright.
Arsenal v Norwich City
Arsenal -1.75 and 3.25 goals
At first glance this goal line looks priced crazily high but Arsenal have outscored Norwich 19-7 in the last five meetings of the sides at the Emirates. Season long trends though point to this line being priced incorrectly. Arsenal are 9-3-2 against the bottom third and those fourteen games have seen just thirty total goals with the Gunners conceding just eight times. These are the games that Arsenal when playing well demolish the opposition in but here I sense they will sit on the lead and play possession football. With the Gunners looking a nervous side I won’t be backing them -1.75 so I will take a bit of the under 3.25 goals.
Swansea City v Liverpool
Liverpool -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Liverpool ground out a 1-0 win at home to Swansea earlier this season and won this match up of the sides by the same scoreline last season. Previous to that though five straight meetings of the teams have gone over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS has gone 4-1. With so many uncertainties going into this game the only thing I can look to bet here is the over 2.5 goals as historically there have been goals when the teams meet and overs are on a 9-1 run in Pool’s EPL games. Much of this is to do with the changes Klopp has been making to his starting line up and with that big Semi Final return game coming up we are sure to see more of the same. Over 2.5 goals looks a very attractive bet.
Manchester United v Leicester City
Man Utd -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Leicester are nearly there as that 4-0 home win over Swansea last Sunday has put them within touching distance of the title. From everything I have seen so far this campaign though I think that Man Utd will just have too much tactically from a defensive perspective to get beat in this game if they choose not to get beat. I know in many ways it’s a strange thing to say but LVG will not want his side to lose this game. If he sets up not to lose then I don’t think Leicester can win. The value is with the home team but I’m not rushing in on it.
Southampton v Manchester City
Man City -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Both of these teams smashed four goals in last weekend as the Saints won 4-2 at Villa Park whilst Man City beat Stoke 4-0. Man City won 3-1 back in November and that was their fourth straight victory when the teams have met and under normal circumstances I’d be happy to take some of the overs. However, this game is not being played under usual circumstances being sandwiched between those two big Champions League Semi Final matches against Real Madrid. Sadly another leave alone game for me.
Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
PK and 2.5 goals
It was goalless at White Hart Lane back in November and Spurs have won just one of the last thirteen total meetings of the teams. Chelsea fans hate Tottenham and they have a real burning desire to end Spurs’ title hopes and also help one of their beloved former managers, Claudio Ranieri, lift the EPL trophy. Depending on results elsewhere at the weekend they could do all of that on one night. This will be the first game at Stamford Bridge in many months where this a real atmosphere at an EPL fixture. All of the value is with the home team in what could be a very bad tempered affair that will do well to see the match finish with twenty two players on the pitch.
