EPL Mid Week Report
It’s time for a little bonus EPL with relegation races and the title chase heating up with only a few fixtures left. James Kempton offers a few thoughts on where you can find value with the mid-week games.
Newcastle United v Manchester City
Manchester City -1 and 2.75 goals
It was 6-1 to City back in October and they’ve won each of their last six trips to St James’ Park by exactly two clear goals. Despite all that’s happened this season the home team will see this as an opportunity for them to gain momentum that they can then use on the relegation run in and they will be cheered on by a forgiving home crowd. City just look too potent going forward though so if the Geordies are going to get anything then they will have to be expansive in their style of play. I expect big man Mitrovic to play and for the Black & Whites to be direct and play on the sometimes shaky City backline. Give me over 2.75 goals and I lean to the away team to take this maybe 3-1.
West Ham United v Watford
West Ham -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Watford won 2-0 at Vicarage Road when the sides met back in October but you have to believe this will be a much changed Hornets team that takes the field for this game. All of their focus is quite rightly, whatever Qiques Sanchez Flores may say to the contrary, is on that Sunday FA Cup Semi Final against Crystal Palace. West Ham will carry the momentum from that game at Leicester on Sunday into this fixture and I believe they will win and cover this line comfortably.
Liverpool v Everton
Liverpool -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Everton have not won any of the last eleven Merseyside derbies and haven’t won at Anfield since September 1999. The Toffees may be resting players ahead of the weekend FA Cup Semi Final whereas Liverpool will surely bring back their big guns after they were rested at the weekend. The historical trends suggest the home team will win this game but Everton have lost just two of sixteen on the road and both of those were by just one goal, 2-1 at Arsenal and 1-0 at Manchester United. Logic says the home win so I will stay with logic and the trends backing Klopp to weave his Wednesday night magic.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
Manchester United -1 and 2.5 goals
United had won four straight EPL meetings of the sides since September 2013 as they headed into the game at Selhurst Park back in October. That game finished goalless and it might be that result sums up United’s season. For many teams that would have been a decent result but this is Man Utd we are talking about! I’m sure Alan Pardew will rest many of his usual starting line up ahead of the FA Cup Semi Final on Sunday so it could be a very disjointed Palace performance. It’s United -1 or pass but whether you can trust them to score twice is very debatable!
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion
Arsenal -1.5 and 2.75 goals
The Baggies beat Arsenal 2-1 at the Hawthornes when the teams met in November and here they face an Arsenal team under pressure after that draw on Sunday. These final few games for the Gunners may see acrimonious scenes in the stands as the loyal Wenger fans clash with the ones who’ve had enough of the lean years. If Tony Pulis shows some ambition going forward then West Brom could cause plenty of problems on the break. West Brom for small stakes for me here as the temperature at the Emirates for Mr Wenger could reach boiling point.
