Round 33
Another round of fixtures are in the books and Leicester City is one step closer to doing the unthinkable. City is now an overwhelming favorite to go from after thought to champion in just one season. However there are other opportunities to make a few bucks on the pitch this weekend and James Kempton is here, like always, to offer his complete thoughts.
West Ham United v Arsenal
Arsenal -0.5 and 2.5 goals
It was that opening day win at The Emirates that put us on notice about the ability of this Hammers side as before that they had lost nine straight to the Gunners. West Ham are 5-2-2 against the top third so I should take the Hammers here but I just get the feeling that Arsenal will tease their fans once more by winning this game to ultimately fall short in the title race. It’s only history and my guys that makes me lean to Arsenal here as all sane reasoning suggests the home side are a good bet.
Aston Villa v Bournemouth
Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.25 goals
This game intrigues me from a pricing perspective as if ever there should be a value spot to back Villa in then this should be it after that 4-0 TV loss to Chelsea last week. The home crowd have turned on their players though and it’s a poisonous atmosphere at Villa Park for the home team to play in. Opening day seems a very long time ago now as on that day Villa won 1-0 away to Bournemouth and since then Villa have gained just thirteen points in thirty one games. If it’s a tight game I’m sure the home team will find a way to lose and Eddie Howe will be looking for a big reaction from his Bournemouth side. Away win or pass.
Crystal Palace v Norwich City
Crystal Palace -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Both teams had much needed positive results last weekend in their bid for safety. Palace earned a fortuitous point at West Ham following a dubious sending off whilst Norwich won a ding dong affair at home to Newcastle 3-2. Palace won 3-1 at Norwich on opening day. Palace are 4-4-4 against the bottom third whilst Norwich are an all or nothing 5-0-6 in this same spot with thirty six total goals in those eleven games. I have no idea what will happen here so I will suggest a little bit of the outright away win on the Money Line should you have the urge to wager in this game.
Southampton v Newcastle United
Southampton -1 and 2.25 goals
The Saints traveled to Championship contenders Leicester last Sunday and were unfortunate not to gain a point. Newcastle lost 3-2 away at Norwich last time out as once again their significant defensive frailties came back to haunt them. Southampton have scored twelve goals in the last four EPL meetings of the sides and given Newcastle’s defensive record this season you can see the same again. Southampton are 6-4-3 against the bottom third this season and have conceded just nine goals in those thirteen games. However, Newcastle are fighting for their lives so at this stage of the season I’d almost favour any side still in with a shout of staying up receiving a full goal at a non elite side. In Rafa we trust!
Swansea City v Chelsea
Chelsea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
I sensed Swansea may be freewheeling to the summer break and at 2-0 down away to Stoke last Saturday that seemed to be a fair shout. However, they proved me wrong to rally back showing great character to take a point in a 2-2 draw. Chelsea smashed hapless Aston Villa 4-0 last time out and that win was earned with several of their fringe squad players starting and contributing. Chelsea are unbeaten in the nine EPL meetings of the teams since September 2011 so this seems to be a case of can the Swans do enough to earn a draw here? One to leave alone for me.
Watford v Everton
Everton -0.25 and 2.25
After a couple of seasons at the helm of Everton it seems that the blueprint is very clearly out on how to stop a Roberto Martinez team. It was 2-2 on Merseyside on the opening day of the season when the sides meet in one of those rare games where Watford scored more than once. I lean to Watford here as the Everton camp doesn’t seem to be a very a happy one at the moment with murmurings coming out from the playing staff. Change is possibly in the Merseyside air so I expect all of their efforts to be channeled towards a cup success that could be needed to save Martinez’s job.
Manchester City v West Bromwich Albion
Man City -1.5 and 2.75 goals
City rolled on relentlessly last weekend at Bournemouth as they extended their extraordinary run of results against the lesser teams in the division. City have won eleven and drawn one of the last twelve EPL meetings with the Blues outscoring the Baggies 31-8 in that run. All of the last five match ups have gone over 2.5 goals and City have scored eleven times in their last four trips to West Brom. Man City are 14-3-0 against the bottom half with a goal difference of plus thirty six! I love City again in this spot because they’re like Shakira as the trends, just like the hips, don’t lie!
Sunderland v Leicester City
Leicester -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The pressure is cranking up at both ends of the table but unlike the Mackems it doesn’t seem to have any effect on Leicester. A win for the Foxes would see them move ten points clear of Tottenham by the time Spurs kick off later on Sunday afternoon. Sunderland are 1-2-9 against the top third sides and they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches whilst Leicester are 11-3-0 against the bottom third. The game sets up perfectly for the Foxes to play more on the counter attack than they do on home soil. The prices have just not adjusted so once again all of the value is with the away team.
Liverpool v Stoke City
Liverpool -1 and 2.5 goals
Liverpool come into this match on the back of that emotionally draining trip to Dortmund on Thursday night. The way in which Liverpool play under Klopp should give the away team significant hope that their creative players will be able to get on the ball and affect the game. Let’s be honest this line is codswallop. I wish I could find one of these lines every week as I’d never have to work again. Yes Liverpool may win this particular game but if you go against teams in this spot on these lines consistently then your bankroll will increase over time. Liverpool have covered this line just four times in thirty games, incredibly twice against Man City, away at Chelsea and at Aston Villa (does that even count?). Stoke are higher in the table than Pool yet receive a full goal? Give me Stoke plus a goal as my bet of the weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United
Tottenham -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Can Spurs handle the pressure? By the time this difficult game for Tottenham kicks off Leicester could be ten points clear and how will Spurs handle that psychologically? This is an even bigger test for them as they’ve not beaten United on home soil since May 2001. United have the best record in the league in this spot going 5-3-1 and those nine games have seen just seventeen total goals and five of those goals were in that recent 3-2 home win over Arsenal. United will draw the home team on and look to hit them on the counter in what should be a fascinating game. The trends, both historically and season long, suggest the home team will not win and if Leicester win at Sunderland earlier in the day this could be a very nervous and desperate afternoon at White Hart Lane. United for me.
