Round 32
The international break has come and gone (thankfully) so Jimmy’s hiatus covering the EPL came to a screeching halt. Here are all his thoughts on the weekend’s fixtures
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.5 goals
None of the last six meetings of the sides in the EPL have seen more than three goals. It was 2-0 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier this season and I see a similar outcome here despite the midweek departure of coach Garde from Villa Park. Villa are 0-4-12 against the top half and have scored just nine goals whilst conceding thirty four goals. The fact that this is a live TV game should help focus the Chelsea players’ attention and we’ve seen all season long this type of exposure makes no difference to the shameful performance levels of Villa. Chelsea or pass for me.
Arsenal v Watford
Arsenal -1.5 and 2.75 goals
Arsenal won 3-0 at Vicarage Road in October but the Hornets frustrated them for an hour in that game and Watford knocked the Gunners out of the FA Cup just three weeks ago. Watford struggle in this spot as they are 2-0-9 against the top third but they’ve only conceded sixteen goals in those eleven matches. Watford have lost by more than one goal just three times this season and tactically I can see them frustrating the Gunners once more. You can’t back Arsenal on this -1.5 line but these are the games they tend to win. I like the unders in this spot as Watford are sure to set up in a manner that the home team will have to work hard to break down.
Bournemouth v Manchester City
Man City -0.5 and 2.5 goals
City hammered Bournemouth 5-1 at the Etihad back in October. The Cherries are just 2-2-7 against the top third and have kept just one clean sheet in that spot. City have been an absolute machine against the bottom half and their 13-3-0 record has been compiled by scoring thirty eight goals and conceding just six. The Blues don’t concede many goals to the poorer sides of this division so I’m happy to side with them for small stakes in this fixture ahead of their big Champions League tie against PSG.
Norwich City v Newcastle United
Norwich -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Newcastle hammered the Canaries 6-2 back in October but their last two trips to Carrow Road in EPL action since January 2013 have ended goalless. Both teams have renewed optimism going into this fixture as Newcastle have Rafa and Norwich had that great win away to West Brom last time out. Benitez has had almost a fortnight to prepare for this trip and you know he will have a plan to exploit the weaknesses of the home team. Give me Newcastle to gain at least a point from this trip and I’m happy to take the away side on this handicap line.
Stoke City v Swansea City
Stoke -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Stoke won 1-0 in Wales earlier this season but prior to that all eight of the previous EPL meetings of the sides had seen at least two goals. Swansea have lost eight of their fifteen away away games and an overall record of 2-3-9 against top half placed sides confirms that they offer no value on the +0.25 line. It’s Stoke for me here and given the emphasis that the Swans put onto their game against Villa last time out and the way in which they laboured to victory I like Stoke quite a bit.
Sunderland v West Bromwich Albion
Sunderland -0.5 and 2 goals
West Brom won 1-0 earlier this season in the West Midlands but they have no real need to win this game. This line should be the home side -0.25 but their extra desire and need for the victory is factored into the line. What do you do? Back the home team on just passion and desire or put your trust in a Baggies side who lost to Norwich last time out and could be on a downhill descent to the summer beaches? I lean to West Brom but with no real conviction and on the goal market as you can’t trust the home team to keep a clean sheet the offer must offer some appeal.
West Ham United v Crystal Palace
West Ham -0.5 and 2.5 goals
The Hammers won 3-1 at Selhurst Park in October and that continued a crazy mini sequence of three consecutive 3-1 away wins when the sides meet. Both of last seasons meetings ended in away wins but it’s hard to see this Palace team notching three times in a game, maybe in a month, but not in ninety minutes. Palace are 1-1-9 against the top third teams in the league and this West Ham team is deserving of such a ranking. Those eleven games have seen Palace find the net just six times so it’s hard to make a case for this game to go over the goals line. Home win to nil for me, 2-0 in fact.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur
PK and 2.5 goals
It was goalless at White Hart Lane last season but prior to that over 2.5 goals was on a 6-0 run when the sides meet. Liverpool are just 3-3-5 against top third placed teams whilst Spurs are 4-6-3 against sides placed in the top half of the table. Will Jurgen Klopp have one eye at Thursday nights emotional return to Borrusia Dortmund in the Europa League? With a Champions League spot seemingly out of reach surely all of their emphasis will be placed on Europa League success. This young Spurs team are riding the crest of a club and country wave and on the PK line they look, given the spot Liverpool find themselves in, excellent value here.
Leicester City v Southampton
Leicester -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Leicester have scored more than once in a game in just one of their last six matches but four clean sheets have seen them win four, draw one and lose just once in that run. After a run of six successive clean sheets the Saints have conceded in each of their last five games and in three of those they’ve conceded twice. Leicester have the advantage of playing after Spurs so a draw could be seen as a good result for the Foxes depending on what happens at Anfield. This looks a tricky game to call as the stats suggest some good value on the home win but for those with futures bets on the Foxes in their pockets it is one to stay well away from.
Manchester United v Everton
Man Utd -0.5 and 2.25 goals
United picked Everton off at will when the teams met on Merseyside earlier this season as they easily beat the Toffees 3-0 and that doesn’t bode well for away team. United are improving game by game and Everton are 0-5-6 against the top third, scoring just eight goals in those eleven matches. This is a tactical mismatch, mainly due to LVG employing some as opposed to Martinez’s lack of a plan! Give me the home win to continue the United surge towards the Champions League places.
